My top five early selections are Drake, the College of Charleston, UC San Diego, Furman, and Columbia (a surprising newcomer). I base my picks on how “Lower Mid-Major teams” (defined in the article) have performed against Power and Upper Mid-Major competition in non-conference play.
It’s an annual thing with me–beginning in 2017–picking the teams I think might shock teams from the Power Conferences (Big Ten, Big XII, SEC, ACC, and Big East) during the opening weekend of the NCAA men’s basketball championship.
In my screening process, I do not consider teams that play in what I refer to as the Upper Mid-Major conferences. As I see it, those conferences (N=7) include the Atlantic 10, American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, West Coast, and Sun Belt. The reason for exclusion is apparent: I’m searching for David to slay Goliath, an outcome that truly “shocks the world.” However, with more teams stepping up in competition, greater care must be taken when tagging a team with the “David” designation (e.g., Florida Atlantic). But David was in the house when Saint Peters knocked off Kentucky.
The Lower Mid-Major Conferences
The Davids of men’s major college basketball play in what I refer to as the Lover Mid-Major Conferences. They are (N=19): Atlantic Sun, America East, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Coastal Athletic, Horizon, Ivy, Mid-Atlantic Athletic (MAAC), Mid-Eastern Athletic (MEAC), Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southwest Athletic (SWAC), Southern, Southland, Summit, and Western Athletic.
This year, as in every year I’ve done this analysis, it’s a relatively quick process to exclude several conferences because none of their teams has shown promise based on non-conference play. In 2024-25, 12 of the 19 lower mid-majors fit that category.
1) Atlantic Sun (FGCU’s magical run in 2013 seems like it happened two decades ago), 2) America East (UVM, a perennial pick, is having a surprisingly poor season, but the good news is that the Catamounts won the men’s national soccer championship), 3) Big Sky, 4) Horizon (Norhern Kentucky often makes my list, but so far this year, NKU is a .500 club), 5) MEAC (to date, no team has a winning record), 6) NEC (to date, only two teams are above .500), 7) Ohio Valley (shocking to exclude teams from a perennially strong league, but several of those schools, like Belmont, have left the conference), 8-10) Patriot, SWAC, and Southland (few if any teams are above .500), and 11 & 12) Summit and WAC (both are in the same boat as OVC, that is, it’s surprising not to find strong teams, ala South Dakota State (Summit) and Grand Canyon (WAC) of the past.
Let me quickly add that I’ve just relayed a mid-December snapshot. As we know from past years, the picture can (and often does) change, and that’s one of the reasons I’ll share a second edition later in the season.
My Early Top Ten Picks
But for now, my early list includes teams from the remaining conferences.
Big South: High Point (11-2) and Longwood (10-3). For both, the challenge is weak strength of schedules.
Big West: UCSD (10-2) is legitimate, having beaten Utah State, LaSalle, Toledo, and James Madison.
Coastal Athletic: Charleston (8-2) has played a good schedule, having beaten St Joe’s, SIU, FAU, and USF.
Ivy: Columbia (10-1) was the football Ivy co-champ, and the Lions (basketball victors over Villanova) may do the same in men’s basketball. Who would have thought?!
MAAC: Marist (7-2) is good enough to make this list, but like HPU and LU, the Red Fox play an iffy schedule (they beat A-10 Richmond, though).
Missouri Valley: Drake 10-0 is the MVC’s best because they’ve proven mastery on the hard court. The Bulldogs have defeated Miami (FL), K-State, FAU, and Vandy. Impressive! Don’t count out Belmont (9-2) winners over Illinois State, Tulane, Richmond, and Middle Tennessee. Then there’s Bradley (9-2). The Braves have beaten San Francisco, Northern Ill, and MTSU.
Southern: Furman (11-1) has triumphed over Princeton, Belmont, and Tulane but lost to Kansas by 35. Ouch!
My Early Top Five Picks
Now, it’s on to the final sifting and sorting. Good but not quite good enough is the designation I’ll give to High Point, Longwood, Marist, Belmont, and Bradley. That leaves my top five picks as of December 18:
#1 Drake: The Bulldogs have not lost a beat after head coach Darian DeVries and son (star player) Tucker left Des Moines for West Virginia. Ben McCollum has kept it going, led by junior guard Bennett Stirtz, who leads the team in scoring and assists. He is also hitting 50% of his shots from the field.
#2 Columbia: The Lions have not played a demanding schedule, but the win over VU stands out. Coach Jim Engles relies on a senior player from the Dominican Republic who may have the longest name in major college play: Geronimo Rubio De La Rosa. De La Rosa is a triple threat, averaging nearly 20 points a game with mid-single digits in rebounding, assists, and steals. Could Columbia be the new Princeton? Holy Pete Carril!
#3 UCSD: No Cardinals, Bears, Cougars, or Wildcats are these guys. They are Tritons, a large mollusk in tropical and subtropical areas. (That’s nice but not as creative as UC Santa Cruz’s choice … Banana Slugs.) Led by Western Carolina transfer Tyler McGhie, UCSD has balanced scoring with four double-figure starters. Few fans pay attention to Out West basketball, but I encourage you to follow this team.
#4 Charleston: The newly formed Coastal Athletic Conference could be called The Stew of Teams. North Carolina A&T is now part of the league, as are Northeastern, Elon, and Towson. What is the characteristic that binds those teams? (The answer is on page 431 of your workbook.) But we know about Charleston, a team that has made basketball headlines. This year, the Cougars are led by Croatian Ante Brzovic, a 6’10” senior forward who throws down nearly 20 points a game, complemented by grabbing almost ten rebounds per contest. He’s assisted by combo guards AJ Smith and Deywilk Tavarez, who are double-digit scorers. The head coach is experienced Chris Mack, formerly of Xavier and Louisville fame.
#5 Furman: With seven players contributing 17 or more minutes a game, balance is the word for these Paladins. No, paladins are not mollusks. Paladins were knights of Charlemagne’s court known for heroism and chivalry. But the interesting thing is that Furman once had different nicknames for different sports teams. The baseball team was known as the Hornets, the football team as the Hurricanes, and the basketball team as the Paladins. (A good business back in the day was printing Furman tee-shirts). Probably out of either frustration or the need for clarity, a local sportswriter ended the confusion by using Paladins to describe all of Furman’s athletic endeavors. That was then, and today, the basketball Paladins rely on senior guard PJay Smith. Another strength is Bob Richey, the head coach since 2016. Richey has won nearly 70% of the games and has experience winning in the Big Dance. Watch the video to see how the Paladins took down Virginia in 2023.
Until next time, may all your holiday (s)wishes come true.
