In 2024, a Billy Beane quote comes to mind: “The idea that you can create a template that will work forever doesn’t happen in any business.” So, let’s step back from Analytics and explore conventional wisdom again to pick a winner among Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio, and Paul Skenes.
During the 2024 MLB season, we lost the OG trailblazer for the application of data analytics in baseball. The late Billy Beane created a pathway towards achieving success in baseball that effectively shattered the conventional wisdom approach towards scouting and player evaluation and helped to launch a new system that has become systematic and has expanded to influence every MLB organization today.
This season in particular, the fans and, I’m sure, the voters are faced with one specific scenario: analytics, as established by Billy Beane and applied by countless others since the publication of Moneyball, will not be the final deciding factor for who will be declared the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year.
The 2000s represented the beginning of a time of significant change about player evaluation and MLB front-office management. Michael Lewis’s Moneyball (2003) publication offered a storybook narrative that thoroughly outlined Beane’s unorthodox approach towards building an unlikely winner with a financially challenged Oakland Athletics club. Famously, the system worked and propelled the A’s to a strong playoff showing. Since then, MLB has seen an influx of analytic scholars, taking on impact front office roles and directly influencing how scouting and player development is carried through from the draft board to the eventual MLB starting lineup.
Conventional wisdom and gut instinct have been mostly replaced with a new emphasis on critical terms like a barrel and spin rate or exit velocity. Staple categories, such as batting average and especially wins and losses about pitching, are overlooked in favor of acronyms like WAR, FIP, and OPS.
In 2024, however, there is a three-horse race, and a typical Billy Beane quote comes to mind: “The idea that you can create a template that will work forever doesn’t happen in any business.” The data-crunching, analytic approach to determining who will be declared National League Rookie of the Year might not cut it this time. They all hit the mark in various categories, perhaps one only slightly better than the others.
For a winner to be declared among Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio, and Paul Skenes, one must step back from analytical acronyms and explore conventional wisdom again.
By looking exclusively at WAR (wins above replacement), it would appear that Skenes at 6, Merrill and Chourio hovering around 4, would indicate that he (Skenes) is dominating his craft and should be the front runner. The numbers across 22 starts are truly remarkable in every category. One can only imagine, if offered a larger sample size over an entire season of 30-plus starts, if Skenes would be running away with the pitching triple crown and the Cy Young award as both Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal are clearly accomplishing as the season comes to a close. In the race for ROY, Skenes might, unfortunately, be the victim of early season roster shuffling and, more specifically, pitch count and load management during his rapid climb through the minor leagues.
What would Skenes’ numbers be at this point had he been the opening day starter for the Pirates rather than dominating AAA hitters through the first month and a half of the season? Next year is full of hope for the Pirates, and Skenes is undoubtedly becoming the ace and lightning rod of a super-talented, young pitching staff. Skenes’ starts have become can’t-miss TV, and it will be difficult to argue that the other two prime candidates for the award currently have the same power to almost single-handedly transform a franchise’s marketability and ultimate success.
The other two candidates, though, Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio, have injected youthful skill and enthusiasm into already successful teams that needed that extra push. Chourio, as the youngest player in MLB, stumbled out of the gate and found himself at risk of early demotion. In a game where one’s ability to make adjustments often supersedes natural talent, Chourio shines with both and never once indicates defeat. A proven power and speed threat. Chourio supports his solid numbers across every measurable domain with the smile and grace of a little leaguer simply having fun and, in effect, living the dream.
Too often, with high-profile prospects, the label worn is intense. Chourio’s ceiling is perhaps among the game’s highest-position players. He reminds us at every turn that he is a kid, having fun playing. The Brewers, having faced challenges in the way of injuries to key players, have embraced Chourio’s youthful exuberance as an emblem of their success as a legitimate World Series contender.
If one’s ability to make adjustments is one of the critical arguments in declaring a winner here, perhaps Jackson Merrill is the front-runner. In an era where batting average isn’t highly spoken of, Merrill is a contender for the NL batting title. In previous generations, not long ago, this category alone would carry the most weight in deciding a winner. Merrill, a shortstop, has welcomed a position change to the outfield and has played center field exceptionally well for the Padres, often making miraculous, game-saving catches that regularly appear on evening highlight reels.
It was not expected, during spring training, that Merrill would make the team in any capacity at the young age of 20. Not only did he crack the lineup, but Merrill took the league by storm, manning center field and hitting bombs.
These three are very different but undoubtedly captivating narratives. The decision is tough, and various factors should be weighed when deciding who will be named NL Rookie of the Year. Metrics aside, any fan can agree that the future is bright.
With optics and narrative factored in, we must decide one. Make it Jackson Merrill.
