Do you think it’s over or not over? Well, here’s what I think.
Rumors are swirling these days about Florida State and Clemson. After the 2023 realignment surge that dissolved a 109-year-old conference in the Pac 12, the lawsuits against the ACC filed by the two football powerhouses are conjuring up images of more realignment quite soon.
We can see that both the Power 4 and Group of 5 conferences have undergone changes, which were set off in 2021 by Texas and Oklahoma announcing their move to the SEC. The era of the superconference is upon us, but how big can they go?
The NFL, a de facto monopoly on professional football, has two 16-team conferences. This seems to be the magic number and what the Big Ten pursued when they shockingly added USC and UCLA in 2022. The Big Ten and SEC were essentially permanently done expanding; more than 16 teams created a monopoly on the market and prime for federal antitrust legislation. Image 20 (!) team conference for the SEC and Big Ten; the Big 12 and ACC would go berserk, as would lawmakers. Just the number seems outlandish and unmanageable for collegiate or professional sports.
However, when the Pac-12 dissolved, and Oregon and Washington were left on the table, they had an opportunity they couldn’t pass up. They added Oregon and Washington, which became an 18-team league. What does that mean for the SEC? They must respond at some point and add two more teams. Hello Dolly! FSU and Clemson are guaranteed to leave the ACC. However, the league and ESPN (which owns the ACC network) will hammer the insolent parties. The fee to leave the ACC is $130-$140 million. Additionally, breaking the grant of rights (at a network owning the inventory of a school) combined with the fee is $572 million. Yeah, it’s not going to happen.
So ESPN will milk this and torture the two schools desperate to leave. The ACC contract expires in 2036, the Big Ten in 2030, and the SEC in 2034. Power 4 realignment is over for the foreseeable future. Since 20 teams isn’t manageable or feasible, 18 is the magic number. Whether you believe it or not, the Big Ten is done … permanently. Sorry, Notre Dame: you’re out.
Back to the ACC. ESPN will force FSU and Clemson to legally honor the contract, making 2037 the year they join a new conference. Since the Big Ten is done expanding, the SEC is a perfect fit, culturally and geographically. Now, the SEC is taken care of.
What remains? After ridiculously adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU to the ATLANTIC Coast Conference purely for TV inventory reasons, the ACC is left with 15 teams. The Big 12 would love to have Notre Dame, but the Irish would scoff at the idea. Notre Dame is in a scheduling agreement with the ACC through 2037, making 2038 (the year after Clemson and FSU leave) when Notre Dame bites the bullet and swallows their pride with inevitable karma for being independent and not joining the Big Ten sooner.
That wasn’t possible in the 1920s because of rampant anti-Catholicism and sympathy for the six million-member KKK among Big Ten college presidents. Now that that’s over, it’s too late to quote Carol King. Notre Dame joins the ACC and evens the league out at 16 (the current 17-team format, among other things, is ridiculous).
And that’s it. Forever. There would be no power teams left. 18 is bloated as it goes, and, being the Big Two, the SEC and Big Ten are at the top with 18 teams. The other two Power 4 have no options other than a group of 5 teams, yet the leagues can’t match the Big Ten and SEC on and off the field. So, the ACC and Big 12 remain superpower conferences at 16.
The Group of 5 is the last of the crumbs. The dissolution of the Pac-12 annihilated Oregon State and Washington State; they are all that’s left. The NCAA requires eight teams for a Division I FBS conference yet gives a two-year moratorium if a conference falls below that number. OSU and WSU will take advantage of that and rake in the last of the cash of the PAC-12 brand. For 2024, the Mountain West Conference has a scheduling agreement with OSU and WSU. Like Notre Dame and the ACC, this will inevitably lead to OSU and WSU joining the Mtn West in 2026.
All that’s left is UConn, which clings to its history of being a BCS conference when the Big East played football. Football became the American Athletic Conference, which UConn played in until becoming a football independent. UConn basketball is a hegemon with the last two national championships and six overall, tied with North Carolina for third all-time.
In football, however, to be blunt, UConn sucks and gets to 6-6 once every five years. UConn is not Notre Dame and can’t sustain independence into the next decade. They currently have most games in all seasons scheduled through 2028, making 2029 the perfect year to join a league. For the Group of 5, 14 is the max. When the WAC tried 16 in the 90s, it collapsed after three years. The AAC and Sun Belt and the Mtn West (with adding OSU and WSU) will be at 14. That leaves CUSA or the MAC. The MAC has 13 teams after adding UMass in 2025. Rounding out with UConn as a football-only member is the only choice for both sides.
The Group of 5 TV inventory would mirror the Power 4 with four 14-team leagues. CUSA is adding Missouri State and Delaware in 2025, making it a 12-team league. After taking so many Division I FCS schools to rebuild a conference, they brought up the rear with 12 teams after realignment was left with five teams.
And that’s it. Finally, we can put realignment to rest aside for 6 out of 136 teams. 2023 was a wacky once-in-a-century year. Now we can enjoy the new playoff of 12 teams, which is the max it will ever be. 16 is a college basketball number, and football needs byes, but 14 teams make two byes that are guaranteed to go to the Big Ten and SEC every year, while the two added at large bids will ALSO go to the SEC and Big Ten almost every year.
Like the expansion issue, this would bring up federal antitrust legislation by the other members of the Power 4, the ACC, and the Big 12. So, 12 teams it is. Now we can actually enjoy football.
