The beauty of a new year is a clean slate. The Mets need that after a disappointing 75-87 season. Manager Buck Showalter and GM Billy Eppler are gone, and the reset began. What will 2024 bring? The answer is full of “maybe.”
Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for the Amazins. It began when Edwin Diaz was lost for the season during the World Baseball Classic after tearing his right knee celebrating after Puerto Rico’s 5-2 victory over the Dominican Republic. Then, Justin Verlander succumbed to the injured list (on Opening Day, no less) with a low-grade strain on the right side of his body. Starling Marte played hurt, was ineffective, and missed the season’s final two months with groin discomfort. On the wins-loss side, the Mets never recovered from their 7-19 June swoon.
This season features a new president of baseball operations, David Stearns, and a new manager, Carlos Mendoza. Can we expect a bump in performance? Good chance. Look for the players to play hard to impress the new administration. Remember, the Mets won 101 games and made the playoffs in Showalter’s first season.
Here’s another reason to be optimistic about the Metropolitans: How can it get worse? Besides, most of the players who won 101 games two seasons ago are still on the roster. Signing J.D. Martinez should be a boost; he’ll protect DH Pete Alonso. But the reality is that J.D. is a fill-in, playing for $200 million with free agency looming at season’s end. He could press or flourish like Aaron Judge did two years ago.
But Martinez isn’t the only reason to have hope. Add Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor, a healthy Marte, and Brett Baty (if he improves in season two), and the Mets could win plenty of games with their offense.
Remember, on the productivity side, the Mets finished fourth in the National League/tenth in the majors in home runs (215) last season. Moreover, they finished with a .407 slugging percentage (ninth in the NL), .316 in on-base percentage (11th in the NL), and a .723 in OPS (ninth in the NL). The Mets achieved all of that without having a reliable DH. Now they have Martinez. Bottom line? The offense will give the Mets a chance to win plenty of games.
But pitching is a question mark and could be either solid or shaky. Kodai Senga showed last season that he has the stuff to be an ace in the starting rotation. That’s a big ‘could be” there. Jose Quintana should be a productive starter, and Sean Manaea has a track record of being productive every fifth day. Luis Severino, Adrian Houser, Tylor Megill, David Peterson, and Jose Butto all have the potential to do well, and Joey Lucchesi should provide depth. The proof is in the pudding; in 2024, the starting rotation could be great or awful.
On the relieving side, we all know how great Diaz is, but the bridge to him is a different story. Adam Ottavino and Drew Smith can’t be worse than last year. Can they? Jorge Lopez is a question mark, while Michael Tonkin and Jake Diekman should be fine as situational relievers. Brooks Raley is a good bet to be dependable.
The problem is that relievers can fluctuate from year to year, being great one year and bad the next. That’s why (the hope) Stearns’ experience building a productive bullpen could be useful with the Mets. That’s important, too, because it will impact the Mets’ chances. If the pitching is better than people think and hope, the Mets could be a playoff team.
The 2024 Mets are an intriguing bunch. There’s potential, but everything has to go right. It could be a playoff team, but doing that won’t be easy in a league full of great teams. The NL West features four quality teams: Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and the defending NL champion Diamondbacks. You figure the Dodgers will win the division, with the other three clubs fighting for wild-card spots. In the East, expect the Phillies to contend for a wild-card spot.
So, the Mets need their starters to overachieve this season, especially in September when the team plays meaningful games and needs (in my opinion) to win 90 wins to have a chance. But I’m just not convinced that will happen. As I see it, the best-case scenario is that the 2024 NYMs are an 84-win team.
