March Madness is David vs. Goliath, unlike any other annual event in sports. Each season, I offer thoughts about which mid-major program might rise up and shock the college basketball world. My first offering comes before the conference tournament season, and the second comes soon after the NCAA field is set. Here is installment one for 2024.
I’m attacking the challenge differently this year. I have always included the NCAA NET rankings (computer evaluations/rankings) when making picks, but I have never used the NET rankings to make my picks. This year I do. Only mid-major clubs ranked in the Top 150 of all 362 major teams are listed below with their respective conference affiliations.*
NOTE: Teams presented in bold type are the ones I believe have the best chance of surprising during the tournament’s opening round.
The Best of the Best Mid-Majors, 2023-24, By NET Rank
St. Mary’s (West Coast Conference, WCC), #15 (Gaels beat Gonzaga on the road and are two games up in the conference standings, but SMC has had trouble against other major teams, including San Diego State, Xavier, and Utah)
Indiana State (Missouri Valley Conference, MVC), #32 (This is the best ISU team since Larry Bird’s 1979 Final Four club, tied with Drake for the conference lead; the Sycamores gave Michigan State a good game in East Lansing … but that’s the only primo major club ISU has played this season)
Grand Canyon (Western Athletic Conference WAC), #48 (Has replaced NMSU as a WAC power but has an iffy overall schedule; credit due, the Antelopes beat Liberty and San Franciso)
Drake (MVC), #51 (Consistently good team in a competitive conference, but the Bulldogs haven’t played a high-level major, and that could hurt DU if they get into the Dance)
McNeese (Southland) #52
Princeton (Ivy) #53 (Tigers are in a battle to win the Ivy [behind Cornell and Yale] and may not make the tournament; good news is that they beat neighbor Rutgers)
James Madison (Sun Belt) #55 (Another good team that’s trailing in its conference [to App State, which beat JMU in late Jan], but in an early-season game, the Monarchs played well against Michigan State [lost in OT])
San Francisco (WCC) #60 (1956 national champ is two games behind SMC and GU in the conference standings, but the Dons get one more shot at each team in the regular season; they beat Minnesota and Vandy in pre-conference play)
Bradley (MVC), #62
Samford (Southern) #65 (possible upset maker)
Appalachian State (Sun Belt) #77 (team to continue watching)
UC Irvine (Big West) #79
Yale (Ivy) #83
Cornell (Ivy) #86
Louisiana Tech (Conference USA) #87
Vermont (America East) #104 (The power team in the America East is an almost sure-winner at home each year, but a weak conference and overall schedule hurt the Catamounts when it comes to playing in March; that said, I still remember the huge upset of Syracuse in March 2005)
Santa Clara (WCC) #106
UNC Wilmington (Coastal) #107 (Yet another team that isn’t at the top in its conference [Charleston is] but a team that always bears watching; the problem this year is that the Seahawks didn’t do well in non-conference play–lost by 13 to UK and by 16 to Arkansas, but beat Marshall and Murray State)
Southern Ill (MVC), #109 (recently beat Indiana State)
High Point (Big South) #110 (Panthers haven’t been much of a threat since Tubby’s days, but there is enough going on this year to make my watch list; HPU is tied with UNCA for the conference lead, but, like other mid-majors, this team’s non-competitive national non-conference schedule hurts them in March)
UC San Diego (Big West) #111
Morehead State (Ohio Valley Conference, OVC) #112 (Eagles have trouble winning away from home, but here’s a headline … they’ve arguably played the toughest non-conference schedule of any mid-major, including Alabama, Purdue, Penn State, and Indiana (almost beating the Hoosiers); and Riley Minix is a fun player to watch–55% FG%, 20+ PPG, nearly 10 RPG, and 2+ ASG)
Liberty (CUSA) #113 (Flames are finding their footing in the far-flung CUSA, ranking reasonably well in the NET while having a surprisingly sub-.500 conference record; I included LU on my list because of how they’ve risen up in March, upsetting Mississippi State in 2019)
Charleston (Coastal) #115 (A competitive squad that’s the class of the Coastal; the problem is that the Cougars haven’t beaten anybody of note nationally)
Univ of Louisiana (Sun Belt) $118
Seattle (WAC) #120
UT Chattanooga (Southern) #121
Eastern Washington (Big Sky) #123
Western Carolina (Southern) #124
U. Northern Iowa (MVC) #125
Oakland (Horizon) #127
Colgate (Patriot) #128 (The Red Raiders are four games up in the conference standings and have won 12 consecutive games; CU suffered a close loss at Syracuse, but the team was blown out at Arizona and Illinois)
Drexel (Coastal) #129
Weber St (Big Sky) #130
UNC Greensboro (Southern) #131 (I love the Southern Conference tradition, and Greensboro always seems to be in the mix for the conference championship; going into the stretch run, the Spartans are two games behind leader Samford and scored a huge upset at ranked Arkansas)
Hofstra (Coastal) #133 (NOTE: Pride’s Tyler Thomas is one of the nation’s top scorers at 22+ PPG)
Youngstown St (Horizon) #134
Western Kentucky (CUSA) #137
Murray State (MVC) #138 (NOTE: Remember Popeye Jones?)
Mass Lowell (America East) #139
Troy (Sun Belt) #140
Missouri State (MVC) #142 (NOTE: Never take this team lightly)
Belmont (MVC) #143 (NOTE: Beware of the Bruins!)
Montana (Big Sky) #144
Delaware (Coastal) #145
UNC Ashville (Big South) #146 (NOTE: I’m watching these Bulldogs)
Tarleton State (WAC) #148
Quinnipiac (Metro-Atlantic Athletic Conference, MAAC) #149
Furman (Southern) #150 (NOTE: What a win last year vs. UVA!)
Analysis
As of February 17, only three teams–St. Mary’s, Indiana State, and Grand Canyon–were listed in the NET Top 50. The reason is straightforward. Many of the top rankings are occupied by clubs that play in the so-called Power 6 conferences, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, SEC, ACC, and PAC 12. But that’s not to say only high-level teams play in those conferences. DePaul (Big East, #317) and Vanderbilt (SEC,#218) are examples of major programs that many mid-major clubs outrank.
Another thing you’ll notice is that several teams that have surprised in March aren’t on the ’23-24 list. Florida Gulf Coast, University of Maryland at Baltimore County, and Saint Peters are three. A big reason is that it’s difficult for smaller mid-majors to sustain programs at a high level.
You will also notice several teams aren’t strangers to past “may surprise in March” lists, including mine. Examples include St. Mary’s, Drake, Princeton, Vermont, UNC Wilmington, UC Irvine, Morehead State, Liberty, Colgate, and UNC Greensboro, to name ten.
Although only teams advance in March Madness, the conferences in which they play are one reason why (over time) some teams do better than others, including teams from the WCC and MVC, OVC, and WAC. Competitive conference play is a good prep for playing “The Big Boys” in March.
While it’s more likely that surprise teams come from the better mid-major conferences, that doesn’t always happen. A case in point is Saint Peter’s shocking run in 2022. That run by a lower-level mid-major (MAAC) shows that anything can happen in the tournament, often does, and makes the tournament a compelling watch each year.
Up Next
Let’s see how the conference tournaments go and where teams settle. Then, I’ll return with my final set of projections.
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*As always, here’s a word about the conferences included in the screening process. I continue to be selective about which conferences are included, mainly because mid-majors are not all the same. I no longer include upper-level mid-major conferences in my annual analysis, including the Mid-American, Atlantic 10, American, and Mountain West. I’ll likely exclude additional conferences in the years to come, leagues like Conference USA, Missouri Valley Conference, and Sun Belt, to name three. Why? “Bigness.” There are too few David’s in those leagues. That’s why schools playing in the Ivy, Western Athletic, Coastal, Big West, and Ohio Valley are safe for now. As in previous years, I did not include Gonzaga (a major program) again this year (and won’t in the future), but I did include other West Coast Conference teams because the WCC is a mid-major league. One final note about teams in the NET Top 150. Although they are what I call “true mid-major conferences,” no representatives of the Atlantic Sun, Southwest Athletic, Mid-Eastern Athletic, and Northeast conferences were ranked among the NET Top 150 as of February 17.
