Written by Tony Bazen, Miami, FL. Follow Tony on Twitter @tonybazen
Week One is in the books for the Cincinnati Reds. The excitement of a season-opening sweep of the Pirates—the team some think will win the N.L. Central—has given way to something else: realization that the 2015 ‘Big Red Machine’ has engine problems.
Courtesy: USAToday
But, make no mistake about it, there are a lot of positives in this year’s Machine.
There’s speed. Reds centerfielder Billy Hamilton is the fastest of the fast with 7 steals in the first four games. Hamilton could make a run at becoming the first big leaguer since Vince Coleman to steal 100 bases.
There’s horsepower, too. Joey Votto (3 home runs in his first four games) has served notice that he’s ready to take his place again among the league’s elite. And 3rd baseman Todd Frazier, who’s fresh off an All-Star campaign in 2014, is quickly showing that last year wasn’t a fluke. The “Toddfather” has crushed 3 homers and driven in 9 runs in the first week. Add power hitter Jay Bruce in the mix (he’s already smacked two round-trippers).
Cincinnati has power to rival any team.
There’s pitching, too. The Reds have high-octane, flamethrower Johnny Cueto. The hard-throwing right-hander has fanned 14 batters through his first two starts, and he has allowed only one ER through the first 14 innings of work. Cueto has established himself as a bona fide ace.
Courtesy: zimbio.com
So there’s hitting, pitching and defense, too. The Reds’ defense ranks among the league’s best.
Speed, power, a proven ace, and solid defense would seem to be the formula for success. But closer inspection reveals serious problems that could threaten Cincinnati’s capacity to make the playoffs.
Here are four issue areas.
1. Set Up for Failure
At the top of the list is the bullpen, especially finding a set-up man to bridge the gap to closer Aroldis Chapman. Through the first seven games the Reds bullpen has blown 4 saves—four homers allowed and a 4.94 ERA. The Reds are close to the NL bottom in ERA, despite Chapman’s 0 runs allowed in his first five appearances. This comes on the heels of a 2014 bullpen that finished 14th in ERA.
Contrast those numbers with the performance by the Kansas City Royals. The KC bullpen didn’t surrender a run during the team’s 7-0 start. And during that stretch KC relievers struck out 21 batters in 19 innings of work.
The Reds need to find a setup man—a bullpen dynamo who can pitch the important 8th inning. Newcomer Kevin Gregg was given the first shot at it, but he imploded on Opening Day. After three appearances during Week One Gregg ERA ballooned to an unsightly 15.00.
Manager Bryan Price then handed the ball to Jumbo Diaz who, while starting the year well, blew two-run 8th inning leads—and on consecutive days. The likeable Diaz was despondent after the second meltdown. “Two days in a row, I had rough nights,” Diaz said. “It’s very hard for me right now.”
The Reds are in trouble without a good set-up man. The current roster doesn’t offer a solution.
2. Can’t Catch A Break
Courtesy: reds.mlb.com
Devin Mesoraco is fresh off a breakout 2014 campaign in which he slugged 25 HR’s and drove in 80 runs. But he’s off to a slow start this year. Mesoraco, with only two singles through his first 21 at-bats, looks overmatched at the plate.
The slow start mat be attributable to injury: Mesoraco has being experiencing pain in his left hip. A MRI showed no significant damage and he’s now listed as day-to-day. The Reds desperately need offensive production from the catcher position.
Mesoraco is it, a conclusion that makes his slow start really troubling. The Reds have traded away or released good options behind the plate.
3. Operator Problems
Courtesy: Cincinnati.com
Reds fans are known for having little patience with managers. Former manager Dusty Baker was blamed for everything. Now the natives are already getting restless with 2nd-year manager Bryan Price, especially questioning his handling of the pitching staff.
Does Price have the experience necessary to win in the majors? Can he survive in a city that expects a winner every year? Will Price be able to get the most out of his talented, but sometimes, flawed roster? Price has defended his players, especially the beleaguered bullpen.
“Right now, I’ve asked a lot of these guys,” Price said recently. “They’ve all pitched a lot with the extra innings and the rain delays and things of that nature.” He continued: “We should expect more as we move on into the season. I think we have enough talent here to be a lot more consistent than we have been.”
Some Cincy fans are already pushing the panic button, calling for major changes in the pitching staff. But Price seems hesitant to do anything rash. “I can’t just blow these guys up because they go out there and have a rough couple of games,” Price said. “We have such a short sample size right now in the season.”
If the Reds continue to squander late leads, the boo-birds will get louder. Will Reds ownership decide that Price isn’t the right guy? Some fans seem to have come to that conclusion.
4. Excessive Treadwear
Part of the Reds Machine is well worn. Cincinnati brought in Marlon Byrd to fix the mess in left field. Byrd had a renaissance with the Phillies last year, when he crushed 25 HR’s and drove in in 85 runs. But, at age 37, can he sustain that production?
Second baseman Brandon Phillips has shown a slow, but steady, decrease in production since his monster 30-homer breakout in 2007. BP’s ’14 performance—just 8 homers and 51 RBIs—was his lowest output in eight years. The Reds need Byrd and Phillips to have big years if they want to return to the playoffs.
Conclusion
A high upside for the Reds is possible. But if the Reds can’t address set-up pitching, catching, managing, and aging players don’t expect The Big Red Machine to be playing in October.
Courtesy: pinterest.com
