There’s no substitution for historical analysis and investigation, and I use both to speculate about the 2023 NFL Draft for the Bears, Lions, Packers, and Vikings.
As the NFL Draft approaches, Mock Drafts try to project which players will end up on which teams, and they will be mostly wrong. Some picks will be right due to luck, while others are obvious, but some require investigative work and inside information, which are the key ingredients to knowing anything.
In this article, I examine Draft results for the first two days over the past five years, including how teams have performed under their current team leadership. Movement in the first three rounds was tracked and contextualized, and that, along with a recent roster analysis, helps me predict what teams could likely do early in the upcoming Draft.
Chicago Bears
GM: Ryan Poles, hired in January 2022
Coach: Matt Eberflus, hired in January 2022
The Bears have already made their first big move of the draft, trading the top choice to Carolina for a haul of picks and receiver DJ Moore. The team ended with the worst record in the league, but there is reason to be optimistic that other bottom teams don’t usually have. Quarterback Justin Fields dazzled as he ran around the field and showed the athletic ability that made him a 1st round pick. Seeming stability at quarterback allowed the team to make the huge move.
No notable trades
Chicago didn’t make any early moves last year, but the team was missing their 1st round pick due to trading up to select Fields the season prior. With Fields breaking out as a runner and improving as a passer last season, the Bears decided to build around their young signal caller and accumulate assets. The Bears have been aggressive, acquiring receiver Chase Claypool at the trade deadline, and continuing to be active in the draft wouldn’t be a surprise for a team looking to add talent.
Possible trade spots: The team made a killing trading down, so they have assets to move up if their main targets start flying off the board. Any defensive player would be welcome, especially impact players along the defensive line, but I like the idea of the Bears drafting a left tackle. Fields still need to develop, and giving him ample protection is a good start. The Bears should be able to have their pick of tackles, but trades or a surprise pick from the Raiders could change things.
Chicago could pivot in the other direction and trade down, too. They already have a treasure trove of assets from their first trade, but an aggressive move from a team targeting a player could add more early picks, including another future 1st rounder. The Bears are in a position to play the board based on how the draft unfolds.
Detroit Lions
GM: Brad Holmes, hired in January 2021
Coach: Dan Campbell, hired in January 2021
The Lions have improved each year since Holmes and Campbell took over, and they now look to make moves to secure their spot at the top of the division in 2023. The Lions can be argued as the division favorite as Rodgers leaves the division, the Vikings are expected to decline, and the Bears just finished with the league’s worst record, but nothing is free in the NFL. The Lions need to solidify their roster to sustain a run of success.
2022: up #32 and #34 to #12
Detroit took advantage of an extra early pick last year to trade up for receiver Jameson Williams who showed flashes while recovering from a serious knee injury and should step in as a top option this season. As a result, the Lions can contend for the playoffs and have the #6 pick from the Rams from the Matthew Stafford trade in addition to their pick at #18. The team also has the #55 pick from the Vikings, so they can move around to create value and target players.
Possible trade spots: Trading up from #18 is the most likely scenario if the Lions do move up, as the team could target one of the top corners in the draft if a run starts in the teens. A more fun theoretical is the Lions moving up to #3 to take quarterback Anthony Richardson. Richardson lacks experience, and experts agree he will need at least one year of seasoning before stepping in as a viable quarterback. Still, Goff gives the team a stable quarterback situation for one or two years while Richardson develops. The star potential of Richardson could be worth it for a team that hopes not to draft this high again for a long time.
Green Bay Packers
GM: Brian Gutekunst, hired in January 2018
Coach: Matt LaFleur, hired in January 2019
The Packers are in a state of flux as they prepare to move on from Aaron Rodgers, and the moves made by Gutekunst in the draft will hint at their commitment to contending this season. Jordan Love will dictate how far the Packers go, so supporting him is probably a top priority. Passing on pass catchers early in the draft made more sense when the Packers had the best quarterback in the league, but supporting Love with more dynamic players and a strong line is more important now than ever for Green Bay.
2018: down then up in 1st (#14 to #27 to #18), up in 3rd
2019: up #30 to #21
2020: up #30 to #26
2021: up in 3rd
2022: up in 2nd
The Packers are active in the draft, particularly moving up to target players they like. Their moves up in the 1st round have generally involved moving from the end of the round to the middle, but the Packers already own the #15 pick this year. In 2018 the team moved down for extra picks before moving back up for their player, a possibility they could look to replicate this year.
Possible trade spots: Moving up for a pass catcher seems like a pipe dream by this point, as the Packers seem to annually be linked to receivers before choosing other options in the 1st round. Tight end Michael Mayer from Notre Dame has some people thinking that could change this year, as he creates a situation different from most players at the position, much like Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski (though comparing him to those standards is unfair).
Green Bay targeting a top pass rusher or offensive lineman is an option that is more on-brand with recent drafts, and players at both positions project to be available in the 7-10 range, where the Packers could look to move up.
Minnesota Vikings
GM: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, hired in January 2022
Coach: Kevin O’Connell, hired in January 2022
The Vikings had an unsustainably good year in 2022, getting almost all their 13 wins by eight points or less and always having the ball bounce their way. However, they lost to the Giants in the first round of the playoffs and have pivoted to the future. Rather than re-sign everyone to try to run it back, the Vikings let longtime (Eric Kendricks), and major (Patrick Peterson) defensive players leave in free agency. Longtime receiver and Minnesota favorite Adam Thielen was also cut in the offseason, signaling a new direction for the franchise.
2022: down #12 to #32 and #34, down #34 to #53 and #59, up #53 to #42
Adofo-Mensah traded down in his first draft and added more pieces, and a similar strategy in 2023 wouldn’t be a surprise as the team fills holes and gets younger. The top defensive players in the draft should all be of interest, as the Viking defense sunk the team at times last year. In addition, early 2022 draft picks Andrew Booth, Jr. (2nd-round cornerback) and Lewis Cine (1st-round safety) are returning from injury, meaning the Vikings’ defensive backfield could look much better at the end of the season if those players develop.
Possible trade spots: The #23 spot in the draft is a good position to trade down to the end of the 1st round and still get an impact player with a fifth-year option. The #29 and #31 spots occupied by the Saints and Chiefs would make sense, as could Buffalo at #27. Moving back throughout the draft is probable as the Vikings boss continues looking to build the team in his image. The team has only five draft picks entering the Draft and should be looking for more.
