In a sports world loaded with predictability it’s refreshing to see a perennial underdog hold sway. That’s happening this college football season, literally and mightily, to a pack of dogs down South—a historic also-ran of college football—the Bulldogs of Mississippi State University.
MSU is #1 in college football (AP Poll, October 12).
Who could have imagined it? Few (if anybody) is the answer. Athlon Sports picked the ‘Dogs to finish 5th in the 7-team SEC West (8-4 overall, 4-4 in the league); and the ‘Dogs didn’t make AP’s Top 25 pre-season poll.
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Yet here they are, ranked #1, after notching consecutive wins over LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M. It’s the first time the Bulldogs have been ranked #1. And it’s the first time in the 78-year history of the Associated Press Poll that a team has migrated from outside the rankings to 1st place in 5 weeks.
Teams like MSU don’t rise to #1 in college football. The Bulldogs don’t have the resources, the players, the fan base, the location, the facilities, the history…you name it…to compete for a national championship. And they play in a league, the Southeastern Conference, which is loaded with teams that do: Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M and Auburn. Just about every other SEC team has a history of making national noise, too. There’s Tennessee, South Carolina, Missouri, Arkansas, and (even) rival ‘Ole Miss (ala Archie and Eli Manning).
Over the years MSU has played more in a league with SEC’s perpetual bottom-feeders, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Just how stark is the contrast between MSU’s historic performance and what’s happening this year? By the end of the 2013 season Alabama had won 71% of its 800+ games, #7 nationally of all-time. Other SEC powers—Tennessee, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and Texas A&M—are also in the Top 25 of all-time win-percentage. MSU? Its all-time win-rate of 48% ranks last in the SEC—10-percentage points behind the league’s average. Seemingly incomparable schools, Central Michigan and Fresno State to name two, have 60% win-rates.
It’s not just that MSU has leaped to the top of the college football world. The reality is that few teams ever realize that status. RedditCFB reports that only 44 schools have achieved #1 ranking in the history of the AP college poll. And there’s concentration of power, too. You can see that when you analyze when schools achieved #1 for the first time.
Nineteen schools were ranked #1 for the first time in the years before 1951; and 15 first-time schools made #1 between the years 1951-1968. Together, that’s almost 80% of the 44-team list, which adds up to a lot of diversity–at least up to 1968. Then the distribution drops off. Eight schools made it for the first time between the years 1969-1990. Since 1991 only 2 schools have achieved a first-time #1 status: Oregon in 2010 and MSU this year.
The pattern is clear: “big boys” dominate major college football. But MSU isn’t one of them: the Bulldogs are historically on the bottom looking up. Now they are the envy of titans, of schools like Michigan, Penn State, Florida, Miami, Tennessee, and Arkansas, all of whom are struggling—despite having “what it takes” to be exactly where MSU is today.
We haven’t seen anything like this in college football since 1988. That year West Virginia—a major college team that has never been a national football power—rocketed up the polls led by burly and shifty dual-threat quarterback, Major Harris. The Mountaineers manhandled opponents during an undefeated regular season, moving from #16 to #3 in the AP poll. #1-ranked Notre Dame loomed in the Fiesta Bowl. But Harris was hurt early in the contest and it spelled WVU’s doom. ND won the game (31-24) and, with it, the national championship. The Mountaineers finished #5.
Now it’s MSU’s turn to amaze. How have the Bulldogs done it? Bud Elliott wrote a thoughtful response to that question in a piece published recently in SB*Nation. Elliott contends that it’s primarily about evaluating potential in generally unheralded athletes, players who are willing to work hard and who also prefer matriculating at a smaller school located in a rural environment (MSU enrollment <20,000 students, Starkville population <25,000).
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MSU certainly isn’t doing it the way “the bigs” do—relying on “plug-and-play” 4- and 5-star high school recruits. MSU ranks last among SEC West schools in recruiting highly-prized players over the last four recruiting classes. MSU is succeeding in two ways: first, by taking a keen eye to talent that fits their circumstances and, then, by using plenty of coaching to develop players.
Head Coach Dan Mullen has done an incredible job putting this all together, and he has really good position coaches to help. Two non-position assistants stand out large, too: Rockey Felker, who serves as Director of Player Personnel and Coordinator of High School Relations; and Lee Davis, who coordinates football recruiting. Lee is a very capable and a very young … woman. Previously at Alabama she beat out 250 rivals to get the MSU job.
The Bulldogs also have great team chemistry and leadership. The team’s “face” is Dak Prescott, MSU’s dual-threat quarterback—a Major Harris look-alike—who’s in the running for this year’s Heisman Trophy. Prescott is completing over 60% of his passes (for about 1500 yards), and has rushed for another 600 yards (5.4 yards per carry). Prescott’s off-the-field story is every bit as compelling as his on-the-field accomplishments.
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Who knows where the road will lead for MSU? After an October 18 open date the Bulldogs have three (and perhaps another) tough road challenges left: a potential ‘trap game’ at UK on October 25; what may be the game of the season at ‘Bama on November 15; and the annual Egg Bowl at ‘Ole Miss on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. The SEC Championship Game–if MSU wins the SEC West–comes the following week.
Can MSU make it through the gauntlet undefeated? It’s easy to say “probably not,” but Las Vegas odds-makers say something else. As of October 17 Vegas had MSU in the top group of four schools to win the national crown. MSU’s betting odds were 7-1, tied with Florida State. Only “the other MSU,” Michigan State, had better odds—and only slightly at that—at 13-2. Alabama rounded out the top four, at 8-1.
These ‘Dogs certainly have claws…and plenty of cow bells, too, which is a story all to itself. What an amazing story it is for this agricultural college-turned-major university, a place out of the American mainstream and limelight…until now.
Our Alma Mater proudly stands.
State College of Mississippi,
Fondest m em’ries cling to thee.
From, “Maroon and White,” MSU’s Alma Mater
Fondest memories? You bet!!!
[…] and why, then, are newcomers competing so well? To get a handle on the answer I recently studied the situation at Mississippi State—a team that was ranked #1 for a good share of the season, having rocketing from out of the polls […]