The big game of the year is bigger when you have skin in the game.
Introduction
Courtesy FOX News
The 2021-22 NFL season’s conclusion is upon us, much to our collective dismay. And this year, we find ourselves with one of the most unexpected, yet exciting, Super Bowl matchups of the last decade. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) are taking on Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (12-5).
For the second year in a row (after Tampa Bay hosted last years’ big game), the Super Bowl will have a true home team. This year’s matchup set to take place at SoFi Stadium in L.A.
As of February 3 on DraftKings, the Rams are favored in the matchup -4.5 (-105), which has since moved from -4. This year, the two contending teams both entered the postseason as 4-seeds, making this the lowest-seeded Super Bowl matchup since playoff seeding began in Super Bowl X. For the first time since the NFL merger, no 1, 2, or 3 seeds advanced to the super bowl from either conference.
What Will it Take for the Rams to Win?
CBS Sports and USAToday
Los Angeles looks to relieve their fans of the tough Super Bowl loss to New England in Super Bowl LIII (NE 13-3 L.A.) when the team’s stellar offense couldn’t get anything going. However, this year’s team looks different.
The offseason acquisition of Matthew Stafford has proved itself to be nothing short of fantastic. They’ve added key offensive pieces like Cam Akers and Odell Beckham Jr. In addition, they’ve added superstar corner, Jalen Ramsey and Von Miller, making them what I would consider the most complete team in the NFL.
The Rams come into this game as clear favorites after eliminating two division rivals and the now-retired Tom Brady. The Rams’ biggest key to success is to win in the trenches. This team has been dominant on the line, ranking 11th in most sacks and 6th in the least sacks given. This team will do its best and get after Joe Burrow, who was sacked a playoff-record nine times against Tennessee.
Stafford and the offense will look to continue their streak of great statistical performances. Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham have been incredible in the postseason, putting up 44 receptions, 622 yards, and five touchdowns between them. Stafford will need to get the ball in their hands early and often to win this game.
How Can Cincy Pull Off the Upset?
Dynamic Duo: Burrow (left) and Chase (photo, Yahoo! Sports)
Cincinnati is coming off a remarkable season, winning the AFC North for the first time since 2015, and playing in their first playoff game since 1990. The emergence of the Joe Burrow-Ja’marr Chase connection has been fun to watch and lethal for the opposition. They have connected 20 times for 279 yards this postseason. However, the Rams and Jalen Ramsey will be this dynamic duo’s biggest test to date.
I would anticipate the Bengals to be a run-heavy team out of the gate as Mixon has been a stellar back this season. I would also expect a lot of screens and short passes to help cope with the quick Rams defensive line. The key for Cincinnati is to take the pressure off of Joe Burrow and do that early.
Cincinnati fans should feel good coming in knowing that Burrow has performed on the biggest stage in college football, winning a national championship with LSU. His experience of staying cool under pressure will be vital for them to have a chance in Super Bowl LVI.
What’s The Bottom Line?
This is the Rams’ game to lose if they don’t beat themselves. But this is a well-disciplined team that ranks in the top three in the least penalties on the year. In last year’s Super Bowl, the home team was clearly at an advantage, and I expect the same this year. Additionally, how could I pick against the team wearing white? And you guessed it! The Rams are wearing white! In the last 17 Super Bowl Matchups, the team wearing white is 14-3 and 12-5 against the spread.
I look for Stafford to dominate in the air and the experienced Rams to take care of business on the biggest stage.
My Spread Pick: Rams -4.5 (-105)
My Over/Under Pick: Over 48.5 (-110)
Player Props, Parlays, and More
The Super Bowl is the most fun time to make player prop bets and same game parlays. Here are some of my Favorite Lines courtesy of DraftKings. (Odds as of February 3, 2022)
Matthew Stafford Longest Completion: Over 38.5 yards (-120)
Tee Higgins Receptions: Over 5.5 (-110)
Cooper Kupp Longest Reception: Over 27.5 yards (-120)
First Touchdown Scored: Over 7.5 Yards (-105)
Here are some of my Longshot Favorites on DraftKings: (Longshot +200 or longer)
Bengals Score First and Lose: Yes (+275)
Rams Win Both Halves: Yes (+230)
Rams Win Margin: To Win by 7-12 (+370)
Each Team to Score Two Touchdowns in Each Half: Yes (+1800)
Here are some of my favorite Same Game Parlays (SGP) on DraftKings:
Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Matthew Stafford Passing Completions: 20+
Matthew Stafford Longest Passing Yards: 35+
Tee Higgins Receptions: 5+
Odds: (+350)
Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer
LA Rams Win Halftime and Full Time
Joe Mixon: Over 9.5 Receiving Yards
Cincinnati Bengals: +10.5
Odds: (+625)
Tee Higgins Receptions: 5+
Van Jefferson Receiving Yards: Over 19.5
LA Rams Passing Touchdowns: 2+
Matthew Stafford Longest Passing Yards: 35+
Tyler Boyd Alternate Receiving Yards: 25+
Odds: (+330)
Cincinnati Bengals 1st Quarter Touchdowns: Over 0.5
Matthew Stafford Longest Passing Yards: 35+
Tee Higgins Receptions: 5+
Odell Beckham Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Odds: (+800)
