As Corso likes to say, “NOT so fast!” In this case, I’m talking about the rush to crown odds-on favorites to win this weekend’s conference championship games. Some will, like Michigan and Georgia, but others won’t. CFP bids will vanish, too.
Friday
CONFERENCE USA, UTSA v. WKU: San Antonio went to Bowling Green during the regular season and beat the Hilltoppers in a high-scoring affair (52-46). This time, WKU will win and cover (-3.5) because.UTSA won’t stop WKU’s record-setting QB Bailey Zappe (5000 yards on the year). And take the over while you’re at it (73). One team alone may hit that mark.
PACIFIC COAST, Oregon v. Utah: UO has the better record, but I don’t trust or have faith in the Ducks to win a big game. Utah, a team on a roll, hasn’t lost since October. Utes will win and cover (-2.5)
Saturday
BIG 12, Baylor v. Oklahoma St.: Give Okie State credit for having a nearly perfect year, and let’s also blow kisses to Coach Gundy for his always handsome mullet. He and his ‘Boys are in contention for a slot in the CFP, too. Orange fans are happy! (Just not for very long). Bears will either lose by less than the spread (-5.5) or could, and I think will, beat the Pokes outright.
MOUNTAIN WEST, Utah State v. San Diego State: There is something about Logan that not only attracts good athletes, but the mountain air brings out their best–not only in football but in basketball, too. Vegas gives the Aztecs the edge in this one (-6), but I think the Aggies will prevail. Take the points and go with USU.
SUN BELT, Appalachian State v. Louisiana: There was a time when I’d always side with the Mountaineers. Not these days or on this day, though. The fly in the ointment is that UL lost its head coach to Florida, and you never know what impact that will have on a squad. I think that’s why the odds-makers give ASU a -3 edge. Still, I’ll go with the Ragin’ Cajuns to win and cover.
SOUTHEASTERN, Georgia v. Alabama: Ditto for Alabama. Who in their right mind would pick against Nick and the Tide? Well, it’s 2021, and there’s another sheriff in town. It’s UGA with its Smart coach and a juggernaut defense (giving up <7 points a game). If ‘Bama had trouble scoring TDs against 6-6 Auburn, what do you think will happen against 12-0 Georgia? Not much, I think. UGA covers (-6.5) and wins.
AMERICAN ATHLETIC, Cincinnati v. Houston: Cincy is in the driver’s seat for a CFP slot, and Houston has had one helluva year. I like Luke Fickell as much as I’m not fond of Dana Holgorsen (this WVU alum jumped for joy when he left Morgantown). That said, Dana is in the right spot at the right time, and -10.5 UC won’t hold up in this game. Look for the Cougars to make national headlines and win by at least two scores (even though the ESPN Match-Up predictor gives UH less than a 20% chance to win). Pay special attention to Clayton Tune (Cougar QB) and speedster Marcus Jones, who has taken four kicks (two punts/two kickoffs) to the house.
BIG TEN, Michigan v. Iowa: Clap for the Hawkeyes because they deserve it. The fact that they have gotten this far is testimony to good coaching, a strong defense, and a weak Big Ten West. Cheer for the Wolverines, too. Not many pegged UM to emerge in the elimination battle for the Big Ten East crown among Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan. Now, ready to battle for the Big Ten crown, Vegas pegs the Wolves as the prohibitive favorite (-11). And why not? Yes, UI forged that tremendous comeback last weekend at Nebraska to get into Saturday’s game, but teams have been doing that against the Huskers all season long. The Hawks’ offense will be hard-pressed to score touchdowns against the Michigan D, and I doubt that Iowa will stop the UM running attack. Still, this game may end up being a brawl (Iowa has a penchant for that), but I still think there’s an excellent case to be made for this: give the points and go with Michigan to win. After all, there’s a CFP bid hanging in the balance for the Fighting Harbaugh’s.
ATLANTIC COAST, Pitt v. Wake Forest: Not Clemson … Florida State … Virginia Tech. No, it’s Pitt against (drum roll) Wake Forest. The ACC is doing its part to rival the PAC-12 in the CFP non-factor race. And the Panthers aren’t making their mark with a defense crafted by stop troop mastermind, Pat Narduzzi. No. Pitt is making headlines on offense with QB Kenny Pickett and receiver Jordan Addison. Wake Forest? Here’s a surprise (another drum roll, please). Compared to the Panthers, the Deacons are scoring more points, its passing game is nearly as prolific, its run game is a bit better, and its defense is giving up fewer yards. So does Pitt deserving being -3? I still think so, primarily because I believe the Iron City folks have “it.” Take Pitt and give the points.
MAC, Kent State v. Northern Illinois: -3.5 Kent? Yowza! How can you go against Rocky Lombardi and the men from Dekalb resplendent in Darth Vader uniforms? Well, the reason is that the home-standing Flashes beat the Vaders 52-47 just a few weeks ago. At a neutral site, look for NIU to win in the 4th in what should be another high-scoring affair. At 74.5, take the over.
