You can’t plan for something you’ve never experienced. And that made for a college football season unlike any other in modern times.
A sage person once told us that sometimes a force will take you where you’re meant to be–whether you like it or not. It’s another way of saying that humans (individually and collectively) don’t control their future. Anyone who has lost a loved one suddenly or was fired from a job knows that.
And that’s what happened to sports 2020, including college football. Conferences and teams tried to manage what, in the end, they couldn’t control. And the outcome produced a lot of uncertainty. And while uncertainty was uncomfortable for fans (as in “Will our team play this weekend?), that was nothing compared to what ADs, coaches, and players went through.
But, if there’s a light at the end of that tunnel, it might be that playing fewer games is better than playing more games. Let’s face it. More games mean more media attention, more TV appearances, and (that elixir) more revenue–the things that render meaningless the term “the college game.” In Power 5 and the Group of Five, football is a business in the corporate sense; and college football, write large, is an industry. To think otherwise is, well, foolish.
Yes, COVID caused the dismay. But COVID probably just accelerated an inevitable outcome, that is, the Power 5 breaking away from the NCAA so that big-time conferences/schools can focus on doing business the way they prefer. After all, at Ohio State, football is a business. At Oberlin College, tennis is an amateur sport.
As for what happened on the field, let’s start with Michigan State. We give the Spartans a pass–not a passing grade, but a pass, as in “Congratulations for showing up.” Mel Tucker arrived after Signing Day and under other unusual circumstances, too. Then, COVID struck. Beating archrival Michigan and division champ Northwestern were highlights. Getting beaten up by Iowa and Indiana were not. But that’s par for the course–ups and downs/good days and bad days are what you see in first-year programs. And while MSU ended up better than many people predicted (we’re among them), the Spartans still finished in the East Division basement.
Then, we had two teams that pulled ‘a Rocky.” That is, they each took a punch, fell to the mat, dusted themselves off, and claimed victory. We’re talking about Iowa (Big Ten West #2: started 0-2, finished 6-2) and Penn State (Big Ten East #3: started 0-5, finished 4-5). Those squads are the hottest (and perhaps the best) teams in the conference right now. Who would want to face either? What they accomplished took character, leadership, and sustained effort–the stuff of which films are made. Kudos, Hawkeyes and Lions!
Purdue (Big Ten West #6: started 2-0, finished 2-4) occupies the other end of the continuum. And while it’s easier to figure out how UI and PSU prevailed, it’s not easy to pinpoint why the Boilers fell. We suspect that last-minute turmoil in the Minnesota game contributed to the subsequent malaise. Late in the 4th, Purdue couldn’t score after taking over inside the Gophers’ 40 and, then, had the winning TD called back by a phantom pass interference call. The Boilers lost at home to Rutgers the following week and, then, on the road to the Huskers a week later. The perplexing thing is that the season could very well have gone the other way. Purdue lost one game by three, two games by seven, and one game by ten. Each contest could have gone in the win column.
Then there is Northwestern. We give Coach Fitz and the ‘Cats an A+. The team plays well together, and NU knows how to win–which is not easy when you’re coming off a 3-9 season with only one Big Ten win. But just as they did in 2018, the ‘Cats bounced back and grabbed the West crown. It’s difficult for a private school with high standards to find a winning football formula, but Credit Fitz has found it. The lyrics in NU’s fight song ring true: “Spread far the fame of our fair name.”
As NU found it, Michigan lost it. Firing DC Don Brown is a start (the UM D was pitiful), but we suspect the team’s problems are more varied and deeper. We know some fans won’t like to read this, but (in truth) the Big Ten is not the same with Michigan as an also-ran. Worse yet, Michigan has held that status for nearly 15 years. We suspect the Wolverine’s brass will eventually press the re-start button and bring in a new coaching staff. A Humpty Dumpty-like metamorphosis is needed in Ann Arbor.
Humpty Dumpty isn’t the right metaphor for Indiana. The Hoosiers are more like Jack-in-the-Box. Once they popped out, there was no putting them back in. Yes, it took a while … with so many close games and excruciating losses, but IU persisted. Great coaching, smart recruiting, solid game plans, and tough defense paved the way. And, oh, those skill players! IU has replaced UM as OSU’s prime contender for the East crown.
But who will contest NU in the West? We thought either Wisconsin or Minnesota would win this year, but it didn’t turn out that way–not by a long shot. Our hunch is that the Badgers’ downturn will be short-lived with an upswing tied to Graham Mertz’s development at quarterback. We’re not so sure about the Gophers. The running game helped at the season’s end (Mohamed Ibrahim gets a ‘Wow!), but this team doesn’t have a championship look–at least not yet. (It’s another example of ‘beware an audacious brand.’ This boat leaked.)
Then, there are all of the rest, each with issues and an uncertain future–Nebraska, Illinois, Rutgers, and Maryland. We think Rutgers (great head coach) and Maryland (exciting QB) are rising, and that Nebraska is staring history in the face. Nobody in Huskerland wants the future to be like its recent past. Instead, they want NU to recapture the glory days of Devaney and Osborne. That’s what the Big Ten hoped it would be getting in NU, but it’s not what B1G has gotten, at least not so far. We think 2021 will tell the tale, and the good news is recruiting. Rivals.com ranked the Huskers in the Top 20 each of the last three years (4th in the Big Ten each year) and just out of the Top 20 (21st) in 2018. That result augurs good things for NU’s future. As for Illinois, well, you know what happens when it’s out with the old coach and in with the new coach. But the Illini face a bigger challenge: Brett Bielema is the new head man. If you’ve heard what we’ve heard, it’s this: WHAT WERE THEY THINKING???!!!
We end with the best team in the conference–Ohio State. Ohio State knows how to win, year after year. Period. For all the negative words that have been written about the term ‘football factory,’ the positive take is that any good factory produces reliable and quality outputs–day after day, month after month, and year after year. That’s what the Buckeyes do. Ohio State is the conference’s wanna-be team–every team wants to be like Ohio State. What are the odds any team will? First, let’s define ‘Will.’ It’s sustained excellence at the national level. When you think of the resources necessary to make that happen, the importance of football to the institutional brand, and the capacity to turn potential into reality, only two schools come to mind–Michigan and Penn State.
Big Ten Bowl Games
After the dust cleared–and several Big Ten schools declined bowl bids (thankfully, we believe)–only five Big Ten teams will play during the holidays this year. The good news is that four are the conference’s top teams–the top two in each division. There’s more good news, too. While Big Ten teams are notorious for being bowl underdogs, most of Ten’s teams are favorites this year. Vegas has only Ohio State listed as a dog.
As for us, we bounced back from a rough start (our picks hugged the 50/50 line most of the season) to finish 7-2 over the past two weeks. So (with a gulp), here’s what we think will happen.
Wednesday, December 30, 12p, ESPN, Duke’s Mayo Bowl, WISCONSIN v. WAKE FOREST (-7 Wisc): Even with the up-and-down year Wisconsin has had, we’d still be shocked if the Badgers have a tough time against the Deacons. The reason is WFU’s leaky defense, which is giving up (on average) 500 yards a game. Opposition points follow … as in 59 given up to UNC in the season finale. Wisconsin
GAME CANCELLED Wednesday, December 30, 4p, ESPN, Music City Bowl, MISSOURI v. IOWA (-14 Iowa): Mizzou found a QB in Connor Bazelak, a freshman who had a nice first year under center. The defense is good, too, but the MU stop-troops will be without top defender LB Nick Bolton, who’s NFL-bound and sitting out the bowl game. In the end, we think Iowa’s punishing style of play–on both sides of the ball–will prevail. Iowa
Friday, January 1, 1p. ABC, Vrbo Citrus Bowl, AUBURN v. NORTHWESTERN (-3 NW): The ‘Cats have a dangerous assignment in Auburn, a team they’ve played before during bowl season (2010 Outback Bowl, losing 38-35). But this isn’t a vintage Auburn team. It’s giving up 400 yards a game. If NU can play patiently and with discipline, we think the ‘Cats will win–not by a lot, but by a little. We think the -3 line is about right. Northwestern
Friday, January 1, ESPN, 8p, Allstate Sugar Bowl, OHIO STATE v. CLEMSON: (-7.5 CU): Even though the line favors the Tigers, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor has this a 50/50 game. For us, the big question is whether State’s defense can handle Trevor Lawrence, a stud who has thrown for nearly 3000 yards on the year with 22 TDs. It’s an amazing outcome for a player who missed games with COVID. Stats tell us that Lawrence could have a field day against an OSU defense that’s giving up over 350 yards a game–with about 75% of those yards coming through the air. Ouch! Clemson
Saturday, January 2, ABC, 12:30p, Outback Bowl, MISSISSIPPI v. INDIANA (-6.5 IU): Here’s a test for you. Name just one Ole’ Miss player. Bet you can’t. No matter. The star of the show in Oxford isn’t a player. It’s crazy ole’ Kiffin. Head coach Lane that is. He makes headlines no matter whether Mississippi wins or loses. This year, UM lost more than it won, and defense is why–giving up nearly 540 yards and 40 points a game. IU, on the other hand, is giving up fewer than 20 points a game. Bottom line? If Indiana plays its game, the Hoosiers will win. Otherwise (and pray it doesn’t), we’ll need to don earplugs during Kiffin’s post-game bizarre-arama. Indiana
_____________
Odds from ESPN as of Sunday morning, December 27.
