Is PSU’s season on the brink?
It took until Week 8 of the college football season for the Big Ten to get into action, and conference fans were more than ready for some football. Even cardboard figures in the stands seemed excited.
Even though this year is like no other, there was a lot of ‘the same old, same old’ last week–expected wins and upset surprises–which means nothing is new in 2020.
Wisconsin rolled over the Illini, 45-7, while Northwestern pummeled the Terps, 43-3 … and who among us would have thought differently? But who saw the Hawkeyes (-2.5) losing to the Boilers? And what about IU?! The always-close-but-never-getting-over-the hump Hoosiers, a team that came into the game as a one TD underdog, beat the Nittany Lions in phenomenal fashion. IU let PSU score as the clock wound down (to trail by 8) with the goal of scoring a TD and getting a 2-point conversion to tie and send the game into OT. And they did! Then in OT, versatile IU QB, Michael Penix, engineered another come-from-behind TD+two operation. IU won, 36-35. Yowza!
The expected/upset carousel continued as Ohio State ran over the Huskers, 52-17, while the Wolverines were a surprise to some. Although -3 against Minnesota on the road, many fans and analysts picked UM to go down to the Tanner Morgan-led Gophers. Didn’t happen. The Fighting Harbaughs racked up nearly 500 yards with their new quarterback (we never heard of him) Joe Milton to race past the home-standing Minnesotans, 49-24.
As for the ‘other’ Michigan team…OH, MY! Rutgers came calling with their old/new head man, Greg Schiano and ended up winning a Big Ten game for the first time since 2017. In winning, the RU flipped the script on Vegas–coming into the game +12 and walking away with an 11-point win. The Spartans didn’t look ready to play under its new man, Mel Tucker. Seven turnovers (two in the first four offensive plays after trailing by 7) sealed MSU’s fate.
Ranking the Conference, Week 1
1-Ohio State (good as expected)
2-Wisconsin (ditto)
3-Michigan (solid road win, but can UM keep it up?)
4-Indiana (fantastic home win, same question)
5-Northwestern (still a lot to prove)
6-Purdue (solid home win)
7-Penn State (fans need Valium)
8-Minnesota (needs to get on track…fast)
9-Iowa (puzzling opening loss)
10-Nebraska (better, but still not competitive…yet)
11-Rutgers (give this team credit)
12-Maryland (stable in its incapacity)
13-Illinois (ditto)
14-Michigan State (muddy waters ahead)
Picking Games this Week
Michigan State at Michigan (opened UM -23, Wed., -24.5): Michigan looked impressive against a quality opponent–and on the road, too. Michigan State, on the other hand, looked like a team in transition. Bringing in a new coach in February was not ideal timing, and Mel Tucker’s late start–combined with all of the restrictions associated with COVID-19–has the makings of being a challenging year. It all adds up to a Wolverines win, and that 24.5 spread doesn’t seem that large.
Minnesota at Maryland (opened Minn -18, Wed., -20): The Gophers found themselves rowing against a strong current in Week 1. But we don’t think the Gophers will let disappointment spill over into this week’s game. Minnesota will row past the Terrapins.
Indiana at Rutgers (opened IU -12, Wed., -10.5): Rutgers showed intensity and effort, and the team took advantage of MSU turnovers to get its first conference win in 22 games. Indiana is coming off a big victory against a ranked Penn State team. For both teams, the question now is getting things dialed-back emotionally so that players can focus on the upcoming game. Yes, Rutgers will be motivated, but Indiana has more weapons. We’ll go with the Hoosiers.
Purdue at Illinois (opened Purdue -4, Wed., -7): Since taking over at Purdue, Jeff Brohm has put together a string of quality wins. Purdue got another quality win last week v. Iowa. On the other hand, Illinois is still looking for consistency under Lovie Smith after having what appeared to be a turnaround in 2019. Now the team is looking at an 0-2 start. Purdue in this one.
Northwestern at Iowa (opened Iowa -3, Wed., -2.5): RB Isaiah Bowser had a helluva night against the Terps in Evanston, and the Hawks will need to stop him if they have a chance to win at home. Iowa will be focused after a loss to Purdue–of that, you can be sure–and UI will need to be just that. This is going to be a hard-fought and well-played game with two excellent head coaches roaming the sidelines. Pat picks NU, while Frank will go with the home-standing Hawkeyes. Iowa, like PSU, can ill afford to open the year 0-2.
Wisconsin at Nebraska (opened Wisc -9, Wed., -3, with some houses not taking bets): Year after year, the Badgers keep exhibiting solid defense and a dominant offensive line. But there’s a new wrinkle this week: there’s talk that Wisconsin will be without it’s starting QB (positive COVID test). Even so, Nebraska will need to score frequently to stay close, which was the same order of the day last week in Columbus. We predict Wisconsin will win regardless of who’s handing off the ball.
GAME OF THE WEEK: OHIO STATE AT PENN STATE (opened OSU -8, Wed. -12): Ohio State keeps reloading with elite-level talent. The Buckeyes looked unbeatable against Nebraska last week–a look that’s hardly a one-off. Penn State, on the other hand, is coming off a tough (and unexpected) opening-game loss. Happy Valley isn’t hospitable to the visiting Buckeyes in any year. This year, the stakes are especially high. For PSU, the season is at stake, and, for OSU, there’s a national championship looming ahead … perhaps. Pat goes with PSU, while Frank gives OSU the nod.
