The Texans are as talented as any team in the AFC with a running game and a ball-control approach that rivals the Ravens. Houston also has an athletic quarterback who’s an older version of Lamar Jackson. Houston’s linebackers are more experienced than Baltimore’s. and a big play from one of them could turn the tide in what should be a close game.
WHAT: Week 11, Game Ten vs. Houston Texans
WHEN: 1 p.m. (EST); Sunday, November 17
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (71,008)
RECORDS: Texans, 6-3; Ravens, 7-2
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 7-2. The two teams have split the last four meetings, each winning twice at home, after Baltimore won the first five. In Baltimore, the Ravens have won all four meetings, including a Monday-night game in 2017. They also won a 2011 home Divisional playoff game.
About the Texans
—Even though the Ravens are only in their 24th season of existence, they will take on an even younger franchise. The Texans, now in just their 18th season of operation, were the league’s 32nd and most recent addition to the league, born out of expansion and realignment in 2002. Houston had been the home to the Oilers, which were part of the old American Football League, from 1960-69, and the AFC from 1970 until 1996, after which they moved to Tennessee.
—Mostly because of its short lifespan, Houston has accumulated only five playoff berths, the fewest among the current 32-team lineup. However, all of their postseason appearances have come as a result of AFC South Division titles (2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018) with no wild-card berths on the team’s resume. The Texans have won more than ten games in a season only twice (12 in 2012, 11 in 2018), and are 3-2 in wild-card games. The team has never reached the AFC Championship Game and is one of four to have never played in a Super Bowl, the others being Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Detroit.
—The Ravens-Texans history has had a few notable moments. The 2008 meeting had to be postponed due to Hurricane Ike, forcing the Ravens to take their bye in Week Two. Baltimore would have to play 18 straight weeks after that on their way to the AFC title game. In Houston’s first playoff appearance (2011), it was eliminated in Baltimore in the Divisional Round on a day when the Ravens drew their largest-ever crowd (71,547). The Ravens and Texans met on a Monday night in 2011. The visiting Ravens won in overtime on a Josh Wilson (Maryland) interception return for a touchdown.
–Houston is not the first franchise to use the ‘Texans’ name. The AFL’s Dallas Texans eventually moved to Kansas City and became the Chiefs. An earlier version of the Dallas Texans folded and was purchased by an investment group headed by Carroll Rosenbloom. The team moved to Baltimore in 1953, and the group changed its name to the Colts. That team played in Charm City until 1983.
—The Texans’ game in Baltimore marks the end of a road-dominated part of their schedule. Four of their next six games, including the next three in a row, are at home. What could be a pivotal pair of division games against the Tennessee Titans will take place over three weeks at the end of the season.
—After a 2-4 start, the Texans have won four of their last five games and currently sit at 6-3, leading the AFC South Division. If the playoffs started today, Houston would be the third seed and, with a wild-card win, would face the No. 2 seed, which currently happens to be Baltimore. Four of Houston’s six wins have come by margins of one score or less, while the same is true of all three of its losses.
—Like most teams, the Texans have passed the ball more than they have run it, but they have better balance than most squads. Baltimore, San Francisco, and Minnesota are the only teams to have more runs than passes. Still, Houston has run the ball on 259 plays and attempted to pass it 328 times (including 25 sacks allowed)– a more-than-respectable minus-69 run-pass ratio. Such balance has enabled Houston to average 31:31 per game of possession time, the league’s seventh-best figure. Houston is guilty of slow starts, however, getting outscored 48-23 in the first quarters of its games this year.
—Ball control will be especially important in this game. Houston has recovered nine fumbles this year, tied with San Francisco, Detroit, and Tampa Bay for the third-most in the league. Houston has only put the ball on the ground five times. Other than that, the Texans have a rather middling position in the turnover table with a total ratio of plus -3, just one behind Baltimore’s plus-4. Houston has intercepted only six passes and has just 14 total takeaways, while it has turned the ball over 11 times.
—On the penalty front, Houston is usually among the league’s most penalized teams. It is again with 71 accepted infractions, tied with Atlanta, Tennessee, and Seattle for the league’s seventh-most; the Texans have nine more penalties than the Ravens. The loud crowd in Baltimore could work against Houston because the Texans have 21 false-start penalties, the most in the league, and four more than any other team. But on defense, Houston has jumped offsides only once. The Texans have eight defensive holding calls and five pass interference flags. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil, whom the Ravens considered drafting, has ten penalties (including eight holds), the most in the AFC, and one behind the league leader. Houston has dropped 11 passes this year, tied for the league’s fourth-most.
—Through nine games, Houston is fourth in total offense (fourth rushing, 12th passing, eighth scoring at 26.4 points per game). Its opportunistic offense is sixth in third-down conversions and tied for fifth in red-zone touchdown rate. Houston averages 23.8 first downs per game, fourth-best in the league. Houston is ranked 19th in total defense (third vs. rush, allowing 84.1 yards per game, 29th vs. pass, tied for 15th scoring, allowing 21.2 points per game). The Texans have the league’s third-worst red-zone defense, and its third-down conversion rate is tied for the seventh-worst.
—Head coach Bill O’Brien (49-44, including playoffs) is the fourth man to hold the position in Texans history. He follows illustrious names, including Dom Capers and Wade Phillips. Gary Kubiak coached in Houston just before coming to Baltimore as the offensive coordinator in 2014. O’Brien is the first head coach in Texans’ history to lead the team to at least three straight winning seasons. A former New England Patriots offensive assistant, O’Brien was Penn State’s head coach in the 2012 and 2013 seasons and was on the University of Maryland’s staff in 2003 and 2004.
—When the Texans played Baltimore in the 2017 season, then-rookie quarterback DeShaun Watson missed the game with a knee injury. Watson, the 12th overall pick in 2017, made his first career Pro Bowl last year and quarterbacked Clemson to the 2016 national championship. Watson was a Heisman Trophy runner-up, a Unitas Golden Arm Award winner, and a two-time Davey O’Brien Award winner. He currently holds nine Houston franchise records. This year, Watson, working behind a spotty offensive line, has been sacked 25 times, but has completed 70.2 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 107.1. Watson’s last two games have seen him play to a passer rating of 115 or better.
—The Texans have one of the league’s most robust and diverse running games. It is paced by former Ohio State star and San Francisco 49ers starter Carlos Hyde, who leads the team with 704 rushing yards, a 4.7 per-carry average, and three of the team’s ten rushing touchdowns. Hyde had a season-high 160 rushing yards in the London game before the bye, making him only the second player to have 150 or more in an international game. Duke Johnson, a dual-threat acquired via trade from Cleveland, has carried the ball 54 times for over a five-yard average. Watson has 52 attempts with five rushing touchdowns.
—Through the air, seven Texans targets have caught 13 or more passes, with six of those players averaging ten or more yards per catch. Ironically, the only one not averaging in double digits is standout pass-catcher DeAndre Hopkins, a 6-foot-1 2013 first-round pick, a two-time All-Pro first-team selection, and a three-time Pro Bowl pick. He has 68 receptions and four touchdowns. Will Fuller is far behind him at 34 receptions and three scores, while former Cleveland Browns tight end Daniel Fells, acquired as an unrestricted free agent, has 24 catches, six of them for touchdowns. Former Miami Dolphins starter Kenny Stills has 22 catches and a team-high 16-yard per-catch average.
—Center Nick Martin is in his fourth year in the league. What makes him noteworthy is that he is the only Houston offensive line starter remaining from when the team faced Baltimore two years ago. As mentioned earlier, Tunsil has been healthy and reliable at left tackle, but he’s also prone to penalty problems. Rookie right tackle Tytus Howard took over that position at midseason, while Max Scharping is a rookie left guard who can also play tackle. Right guard Zach Fulton was a 2014 Kansas City Chiefs sixth-round pick (193rd overall). He’s now in his second season in Houston.
—The Texans’ three-person defensive line must once again take up the slack in the pass-rush left by yet another season-ending injury to standout defensive end JJ Watt. Former nose guard Brandon Dunn is now listed at an end, and 2016 fifth-round pick DJ Reader plays opposite end. Former starter Joel Heath is now a backup. The other starting end is Angelo Blackson, a Tennessee Titans 2015 fourth-round pick (100th overall) who is in his third year with Houston. Blackson played all 16 games last season but made only four starts. Reader leads the first level with 27 total tackles and 2.5 of the team’s 21 quarterback sacks.
—The last time the Texans played Baltimore, the team’s linebacking corps was decimated with the Cushing suspension and Whitney Mercilus’ injury. These days, Cushing is an assistant coach and Mercilus is back on a unit that has allowed only three rushing touchdowns. Mercilus has a team-high 5.5 sacks and an interception. His 32 tackles are good for sixth on the team, a category paced by inside linebacker Zach Cunningham, who is a third-year player from Vanderbilt with 68 total tackles, including seven or more in his last three games.
—Cunningham’s partner on the inside is veteran Bernardrick McKinney, a 2015 second-rounder (43rd overall) who was named to his first Pro Bowl last year. His 60 tackles are second on the squad. McKinney and Cunningham have each recovered two fumbles. Playing opposite Mercilus on the other outside is Brennan Scarlett, a 2016 undrafted free agent who had two sacks and a forced fumble in Houston’s London game before the bye. A notable backup is Barkevious Mingo, a Cleveland draft pick, who’s now with his fifth team.
–The Texans have allowed 18 passing touchdowns and haven’t intercepted many passes. But veteran safety Tashaun Gipson, a former Cleveland Brown, has two of the pickoffs and has run one of them back for a touchdown. Justin Reid, a Stanford product who was a third-round pick (68th overall) last year, is the other safety. He also has a pickoff to his credit. Johnathan Joseph and Bradley Roby are the starting cornerbacks. Joseph is a former Cincinnati Bengal, who picked off Joe Flacco four times while he quarterbacked the Ravens. Roby is a six-year veteran in his first year with the Texans after five seasons in Denver. Backup Gareon Conley also has an interception, as does reserve Jahleel Addae. Conley has five pass breakups over the last two weeks.
—DeAndre Carter, who broke into the league as an undrafted backup wide receiver for Baltimore, didn’t survive training-camp cuts. He bounced around to four other teams before landing with Houston late last year, and he is now the team’s primary punt and kick returner. On punts, he has 14 runbacks with 11 fair catches with an above-average 8.9-yard runback rate. He is not as sharp on kickoffs, averaging just 19.8 yards on eight returns. The Texans’ coverage teams are excellent, holding opponents to just 2.8 yards per punt return and 19.7 per kick runback.
—Fourth-year kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn (UCLA) has had a longer career than one might expect, given his propensity for missing shorter field goals and extra points. He has missed a staggering five conversions this year, but he has gone 13-for-17 on field goals–three of his misses coming from beyond 50 yards. Former longtime Jacksonville Jaguars punter Bryan Anger now plies his trade in Houston and is leading the NFL with a 47.6 gross average and 44.9 net, thanks in part to good coverage. He has two touchbacks, nine coffin-corner punts in 19 attempts, and a 71-yard punt to his credit.
Prediction
The Texans are embroiled in a division race that’s a lot closer and balanced than the one in which Baltimore is involved. Houston will sometimes show cracks under pressure in close games. Otherwise, its record would rival that of the Ravens and New England. It’s only one game behind Baltimore as things stand now.
Despite occasional mental breakdowns–especially in the offensive line–the Texans are as talented as any team in the AFC. Its running game and a ball-control approach rival the Ravens. They also have an athletic quarterback in Watson, who’s an older version of Lamar Jackson.
Houston has better talent at wideout, while the Ravens have the edge at tight end. Both teams don’t have much of a pass rush (with JJ Watt out for the Texans), but Houston’s linebackers are more experienced than Baltimore’s. A big play from one of them could turn the tide in what could be a very close game.
Houston 24, Baltimore 23
