Courtesy of: ESPN.com
It’s 9:00pm on a Saturday night and you and your buddies just arrived at your favorite spot in the city. The club is small, but it’s always filled with beautiful women, strong drinks, and bad decisions. You and a friend head straight to the bar to grab the first round of drinks and while you wait for the bartender; you take turns scanning the scenery. It’s a busy night and the club is packed. You look down the bar and catch a short, brunette girl checking out your friend. He doesn’t see her so you give him a little nudge.
“Hey man, that girl at the end of the bar looks interested.”
He takes a quick peak and then turns his back to her. “Not my type…” He begins. “I like tall and blonde. Besides, she’s like a 6; I’m more of a 9 or 10 guy.”
He hands you a glass and you accept both the drink and his shallow, superficial personality. After all, he’s your bro and that’s what bros do, right? He spends the next several hours getting tipsy, obnoxious, and eventually hammered. You find yourself completely fascinated by his tactics as he moves from one tall, blonde “10” to another; not willing to settle on any particular one. As the night fades, his energy, and the population of the club, slowly dwindles and he finds himself in desperation mode.
He’s still alone. He could’ve had his choice of any number of gorgeous women, but the night got away from him and now the selection isn’t what it once was. The 9’s and 10’s have been gone for some time now, and in the 20 minutes he just spent hugging the toilet in the men’s room, the 8’s hit the exits as well. You retrieve your jacket and gather the guys to officially call it a night when you realize you’ve lost sight of your friend. You scan the now sparse landscape and just as you begin to get worried, you spot him; his arm around the short, brunette from the bar walking towards the door. You catch his eye and give him an inquisitive glance. He simply shrugs his shoulders and the two leave together.
“He thought she was a 6 earlier.” You chuckle to one of your other buddies.
“Hey, when the night has turned upside down…a 6 looks a lot like a 9.” He replies.
And that, my friends, is my take on bye weeks. Several 8’s, 9’s, and 10’s are leaving the club this weekend and those 6’s and 7’s are starting to look an awful lot better. This week, the NFL sends four teams to timeout while the rest of its kids get to keep playing. From a “real” football perspective, it’s actually quite nice. You’ve got Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Washington; 4 pretty awful teams taking a break this week which means better overall football games to watch. But from a “fantasy” perspective, it marks the start of a significant stretch of time where you’ll be pinning your hopes on guys you may not have heard of prior to last week.
Bye weeks force you to be creative. They demand that you make smart, logical, and sometimes guttural calls with your lineup. But they also change your perspective and make you adjust expectations. The guy you had riding your bench as a backup flex option just got promoted to your running back #2 slot. That’s ok, don’t be disheartened, it was going to happen eventually. And it’s happening to everyone else too so take solace in that. The key is to find the guys with the best matchups and plug them in, regardless of your preseason expectations of them. This happens to be the theme of this week’s fantasy 6-pack. The 3 guys I like this week include a player I didn’t like coming into the season, a player I haven’t liked through the first 4 weeks of the regular season, and a player whose expectations were cloudy coming off a suspension 2 weeks ago. So let’s get to it, shall we?
3 I Like
RB, DeMarco Murray (9 proj. pts)- The theme you’ll notice among these guys is matchups; as in they all have good matchups. Murray has exceeded expectations so far this season, running hard, being used regularly, and most of all, staying healthy. Though he’s only scored one touchdown on the year, Murray has been surprisingly active in the passing game to go along with his 18 touch per game average on the ground. This week, the Cowboys take on the prolific Denver Broncos in Dallas. The same Denver Broncos who have given up a touchdown on the ground in each of their 4 games so far this year. If recent history tells us anything, the Cowboys are likely to be playing catch-up in this game which typically doesn’t bode well for running backs. But Murray has caught 5 or more passes in 3 of 4 games this year and will likely rack up some late game numbers this week. I expect he finds the endzone to go along with 100 total yards.
RB, Maurice Jones-Drew (11 proj. pts)- The Jags are bad. Like really bad. We all know this and it’s one of the reasons that MJD has been so disappointing this year. He is no longer a RB1 and for the season, probably nothing more than a flex option going forward. But not this week. This week, he takes on the 32nd rank defense against fantasy rushers. The Rams have given up an average of over 23 fantasy points a game to opposing running backs, including 5 TDs in 4 games. The matchup makes him relevant this week and you should feel confident starting him. I don’t expect a monster performance, but I do expect more than the projected 11 fantasy points.
WR, Josh Gordon (12 proj. pts)- With guys like Pierre Garcon, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Brown on bye this week, a guy like Gordon is a great option. Gordon blew up in his first game back from suspension two weeks ago and last week, against a solid Bengals secondary, he still tallied over 70 yards receiving. He’s a deep threat with tons of speed and Brian Hoyer actually looks like a NFL quarterback who can get him the ball. This week, the Browns take on Buffalo on Thursday night and Gordon gets to feast on a secondary that just gave up nearly 300 yards and 2 TDs to the Ravens receiving corps. Cleveland is the 31st ranked defense against fantasy receivers, giving up multiple touchdowns in 3 of 4 games this year. I expect a big game from Gordon, much like Torrey Smith had against the Bills last week.
3 I Don’t
RB, DeAngelo Williams (12 proj. pts)- In a bye week where all 4 teams absent from play have running backs you would likely be starting, it’s hard to be down on a guy averaging 21 carries a game. But I’m down on D-Willy this week. He’s been consistent, that’s for sure, and could probably give you about 80-90 yards on the ground this week. But he doesn’t score touchdowns, he’s rarely in on passing downs, and this week, the Panthers face the Cardinals who have given up the 6th fewest points to opposing running backs this year. 12 points is a lot to ask of a guy who is unlikely to score if you ask me. I’m not saying don’t start Williams…it’s unlikely that you have 3 running backs who are better at this point, but I am saying scale down the expectations a bit so the high single digits.
WR, Reggie Wayne (12 proj. pts)- Wayne has had two good games and two bad games so far this year. In his two solid outings, he’s produced close to 100 yards and scored in each. In his two poor efforts, he failed to find the end zone in each and couldn’t produce more than 60 yards in either. This week, the Colts host the Seahawks, the #1 defense against opposing wide receivers. So which type of game do we think Wayne will have here? I’m betting the under here confidently. If you can sit him, I’d do it.
TE, Jordan Cameron (14 proj. pts)- Don’t get me wrong, the guy’s been a welcomed surprise this season. He’s been very consistent, catching at least 5 balls in each game this year, scored in 3 of 4, and hasn’t had less than 66 yards receiving. But the reason I’m down on Cameron this week is the same reason I’m high on Josh Gordon. Buffalo is terrible against wide receivers, but they’ve been the 6th best defense in holding TEs in check this year. This is the toughest defense against the TE that Cameron has faced this year and I think with so many other holes to exploit in the Bills’ defense, it might be a somewhat muted game for the Browns TE.
Last Week: 3-3
Year to Date: 9-9
