Courtesy of: ajc.com
In the sports world, the mantra of “what have you done for me lately” tends to be more accurately depicted by the words, “what have you…nevermind, don’t want to know…you’re outta here.” Since the advent of free agency, players often move from team to team as if the bell just rang at a speed dating event. The fluidity of the NFL adds another interesting dimension to fantasy football, as owners anticipate the potential production of players in new surroundings.
This season is especially interesting due to the number of marquee, fantasy-impact players who have changed teams during the off-season. Today I want to highlight a few of them and project their fantasy relevance here in 2013.
Carson Palmer, QB (From Oakland to Arizona)
I want to start with Palmer because he is one player whose team swap may actually benefit someone else more than himself. Let’s make no mistake about it, Carson Palmer is not the potential fantasy stud he showed glimpses of being, way back in his relative heyday in Cincinnati. What he inherited in Oakland is not all that different from what he now inherits in Arizona; a below-average (to be kind) offensive line, inconsistent run game, and streaky receiver corp – with one notable exception…Larry Fitzgerald.
The skill, intelligence, and dependability of Fitzgerald adds a weapon to Palmer’s arsenal that he hasn’t had since his Bengals days with Chad Johnson. However, Palmer’s value doesn’t suddenly skyrocket into fantasy starter potential. He’s moving from the fairly friendly confines of the AFC West (Denver notwithstanding) and moving to the defensive powerhouse of the NFC West where he will face Seattle and San Francisco twice, along with the improving St. Louis Rams defense. On the other hand, the real winner in this move is Fitzgerald who has been asking Santa Claus for a QB since Kurt Warner hung up his cleats.
After a dismal 2012 campaign, where Larry saw the likes of Kevin Kolb, Red Skel- I mean John Skelton, and Ryan Lindley attempt to get him the ball, Fitzgerald should be renewed by the fact that Carson Palmer is an actual NFL quarterback. I expect a phoenix-like rebirth for Fitzgerald this season as he climbs back into the ranks of top-10 wide receiver. Fitzgerald’s season projection: 84 receptions, 1375 yards, 9 TDs.
Steven Jackson, RB (From St. Louis to Atlanta)
It’s been a hard knock life for Steven Jackson – you know, as professional football player’s lives go. He’s plodded his way to 8 straight 1,000 yard rushing seasons, topping 10,000 yards for his career to go along with over 3,300 receiving yards. He’s been the main (if not the only) offensive threat on the Rams for the majority of his career and what does he have to show for it? 1 playoff appearance.
The football gods gave him a reprieve this off-season when he moved to the Atlanta Falcons, a perennial contender now in the NFC South, and an offense full of firepower. For years, the Atlanta Falcons made a fantasy monster out of Michael Turner, masking the fact that he wasn’t really all that good, and now they get to elevate Jackson into a similar position. The problem hindering S-Jax is the fact that he’s 30 years old and entering his 9th season as a starting running back. He’s dealt with some recent injury history and isn’t the same pass catching back he used to be, which explains many fantasy owner’s trepidation with the aging star.
However, the Falcons present Jackson with a situation he is not used to seeing…red zone scoring chances. Despite their high-flying aerial assault, only 2 teams in the entire NFL have run the ball more inside their opponents’ 10 yard line in the last 3 seasons. In 8 years in St. Louis, Jackson only had one season with double digit TDs. This year, he will add a second to his resume. Jackson’s season projection: 1275 yards rushing, 320 yards receiving, 12 total TDs.
Mike Wallace, WR (From Pittsburgh to Miami)
Perhaps the most talked about WR swaps this season were the Wes Welker move to Denver and the Danny Amendola move to New England. They garnered a lot of buzz with Welker being such a fixture with Tom Brady in NE and Amendola being brought in to basically replicate his position. But Mike Wallace moving down to Miami is interesting from a fantasy perspective.
Courtesy of: Miami Herald
At first glance, logic leads you to assume a down year on the horizon for Wallace. After all, the quarterback change seems like a certain downgrade and Miami hasn’t exactly been a playoff juggernaut lately. But look a little closer and things don’t seem quite as dim for Wallace going forward. Miami’s offensive line is improved and ranks around the middle of the pack in the NFL, while Pittsburgh crew is going through some serious adjustments and ranks well below Miami’s.
Of the lesser-known young QBs in the league, Ryan Tannehill has actually shown some legitimate improvement over the off-season and seems poised for a solid, if unspectacular, season. Opposite Wallace is a solid slot man in Brian Hartline, who proved many times last year that he is capable of being a poor man’s Wes Welker, and moving to the comfier confines of South Florida has to be more receiver friendly than winters in Western Pennsylvania. All of this is to say that a solid season could be in store for Mike Wallace. I don’t anticipate a top 10 or even top 15 campaign, but considering his current ADP of the late 5th round, he could generate a very nice season as your #2 WR. Wallace’s season projection: 71 receptions, 1,180 yards, 9 TDs.
