I’ll Take the Sure Thing

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*FAN SUBMISSION by future Sports Column writer Charles Kruzits of Catonsville, MD. Follow him on Twitter @kruzindirty.*

Former Indianapolis Colts general manager Bill Polian was on NFL Live Tuesday afternoon, discussing this year’s upcoming draft. The man responsible for taking Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf holds a lot of credibility. However, his sentiments about Florida State quarterback E.J. Manuel fortified why the draft process is completely flawed. Polian said, “He (Manuel) has the most potential, the most upside. Now, he needs to be more consistent.” He later went on to say that Manuel should be a first round pick.

Consistent, that’s the only word that made sense in Polian’s statement.

In a cut-throat business such as the NFL, the draft has been known to make or break an NFL franchise. For example, please see how the careers of Manning and Leaf panned out. In the 2013 NFL Draft, which will be airing this Thursday, April 25th at 8:00 P.M. on ESPN, some players will be left wondering “how did this happen” in a somber tone whereas others will be screaming expletives in joyous fashion.

 

Courtesy: Sporting News/AOL

Courtesy: Sporting News/AOL

The quarterback class in this year’s class has been criticized, belittled, and downright condemned. Those that highlight the group consist of: Geno Smith (WVU), Matt Barkley (USC), Ryan Nassib (SU) and E.J. Manuel (FSU). Two of the aforementioned quarterbacks produced at high levels for their respective programs (Barkley, Smith). It’s Manuel and Nassib that have been moving up the draft boards but for reasons you can’t pinpoint in the film room.

The thought process in the NFL Draft between production/potential is a slippery slope and I believe this flawed logic has/will/continue to ruin the careers of NFL general managers and coaches. Barkley was the face of Southern California for four years as he carved up the PAC-12 en route to throwing 116 touchdowns and 12,057 yards. Smith, who put up video game-like numbers in his time at Morgantown, has critics screaming overrated, lazy and other disparaging comments about his game. The Miami, Florida product finished his career with 98 touchdowns and 11,662 yards in three seasons at WVU. It’s the game film that should be observed and nitpicked. Instead, it’s that aggravating word potential and scouts flocking to Indianapolis to watch prospects parade in all too revealing clothing.

The combine is another frustrating part of the NFL Draft. We will discuss that another however. Players such as Manuel and Nassib had their time in college to prove that they are NFL ready. Yet, it’s the p-word that has upped their stock. During his time in Tallahassee, Manuel didn’t light up the place. Needless to say he didn’t play well enough to invest a first round pick and a contract worth millions. Manuel’s career numbers read 47 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. He was the starting signal caller for FSU for two seasons. With his size (6’5, 240) and speed, many scouts predict that the ceiling is endless for Manuel. However, why didn’t that translate into wins and big plays while at FSU? That potential doesn’t mean squat if it doesn’t transcend into wins. There was a guy named Tom Brady whose potential was doubted and he turned out alright.

Another signal caller who has watched his stock soar is Nassib. The Malvern Prep product sets himself apart from his colleagues simply because the talent that surrounded him was far inferior to those All-Americans and Blue-Chippers that flocked to schools such as Alabama, USC, and FSU. Nassib has an elite arm, he can zing it with the best of ‘em. However, his play with the Orangemen was erratic and for as many games that he played like a NFL quarterback, there were far more that he looked like a backup for the Ottawa Roughriders. Nassib’s former head coach Doug Marrone left his post at SU after the season but he didn’t go far as he accepted the vacant head coaching gig with the Buffalo Bills.

Mel Kiper, the draft guru, bluntly put it, “if (Doug) Marrone wasn’t the head coach in Buffalo, Nassib would be a 2nd round pick.” He added, “some scouts don’t even have (Nassib) on their board and haven’t bothered scouting him.” The Bills hold the eighth spot in the NFL draft and recently departed with their high-priced, starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Unfortunately for the Bills fanbase, their reunion seems imminent.

Adding to the criticism of Nassib is the once-maestro for the ‘Greatest Show on Turf.’ Kurt Warner was an undrafted quarterback who took the long road to grasp greatness. A product of Northern Iowa, Warner was cut by the Green Bay Packers in his rookie season, stocked shelves at a grocery store and shortly found a home in the Arena Football League, before eventually winning the Super Bowl with the St. Louis Rams. If anyone is fighting for the underdog it’s Warner, but he’s not vying for Nassib. While on ‘NFL AM’ Warner said, “Watching film of this guy — not overly impressive on film.” He added “If you’re drafting a quarterback in the first round, you’re drafting a franchise quarterback, a guy who you believe can win Super Bowls for you. Otherwise, why draft a guy that high? You need a guy that can do everything, and I didn’t see on film this guy having the ability to do everything. He didn’t wow me when I saw him on film.” The word that stands out in Warner’s statement is film.

Throw away the combine experience and judge the quarterback, the soon-to-be leader of your team, by what he did when 80,000 plus fans were acting like banshees hoping that he’d throw a costly interception. That’s the evidence that will determine if he can cut it. It’s not an exact science I’ll admit. But, judging a player based on what he did in a noncompetitive event or what he could be, seems foolish especially when there are hours and hours of game footage on hand.

Manuel and Nassib could reach Pro Bowl status but it’s not their talent I am disputing, it’s the logic that occurs in the minds of NFL scouts. There are 116 reasons why I would advocate for Barkley being a first round pick, furthermore, it’s going to take a lot more than a stellar 40 yard dash and the “uncapped” potential one possesses to make a choice that could lead to multiple Super Bowl wins or multiple years living in infamy.

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