Read on to learn what I believe are the pre-race favorites to win the Kentucky Derby 2025 and, just as importantly, why they are the favorites to win the most widely followed horse race in the world.
Print courtesy Thoroughbred Daily News
As one of the most iconic venues in horse racing history, Churchill Downs has long stood as the hallowed ground of American thoroughbred racing. Since its first Kentucky Derby in 1875, the Louisville-based racetrack has been the proving ground for the sport’s finest competitors. Each year, thousands of spectators gather under the Twin Spires, and millions more tune in from across the globe to witness the “Run for the Roses.”
As we inch closer to the 2025 Kentucky Derby, anticipation is at a fever pitch. The prep race season is well underway, and these key qualifying events have already offered a treasure trove of insights. From breakthrough performances to strategic recalibrations, this year’s prep races have painted a clearer picture of which horses, trainers, and jockeys might shine on the biggest stage in racing.
The Standout Performers: With the prep season underway, many contenders have separated themselves from the pack. These rising stars haven’t just won races—they’ve demonstrated adaptability, professionalism, and a knack for peaking at the right time. Whether it’s a colt showing newfound tactical versatility, a pedigree shining through under pressure, or consistent performances across varying track conditions, the following runners have delivered performances that demand attention. Based on what we’ve seen, they stand out as early on many sportsbooks’ picks for Churchill Downs—potential front-runners in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Here’s a look at three of the most compelling hopefuls heading into the big day.
Journalism: Journalism, a bay colt by Curlin out of Mopotism (by Uncle Mo), has positioned himself as a serious Kentucky Derby threat after a standout performance in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. This promising three-year-old, trained by Michael McCarthy, has compiled a strong resume with three wins and a third-place finish from four starts, amassing $338,880 in earnings.
His pedigree is rich with classic potential, blending the stamina of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin with the brilliance of Uncle Mo through his dam, Mopotism, who was Grade 1-placed.
Sovereignty: Sovereignty has firmly shown himself as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender, showcasing a potent mix of tactical speed and late kick—hallmarks of a classic-caliber racehorse. Trained by Bill Mott and bred by Godolphin, the promising colt has made impressive strides through just four career starts, culminating in a gritty neck victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Sired by Into Mischief out of the Bernardini mare Crowned, Sovereignty’s pedigree offers a compelling blend of brilliance and endurance.
Coal Battle: Coal Battle has quickly become one of the more compelling prospects on the road to the Kentucky Derby, demonstrating impressive development and consistency throughout his campaign.
The dark bay colt by Coal Front is currently riding a three-race winning streak in stakes company, most recently delivering a sharp, tactically savvy victory in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where he prevailed by 1 1⁄4 lengths.
Photo courtesy USA Today
Race Conditions and Other Influencing Factors: The prep race season has unfolded across various track conditions—from sloppy, rain-soaked surfaces to dry, fast tracks—testing the adaptability of both horses and their connections. These ever-changing environments have prompted trainers to condition their runners for a broad spectrum of possibilities. This strategy could prove vital at Churchill Downs, where early May weather often defies prediction.
Performance disparities have made one thing clear: surface conditions matter. Some contenders have thrived on firm footing but faltered when the track turned heavy and tiring, while others have shown a knack for digging in and finishing strong when the going got tough. These contrasts may become even more significant if forecasts call for a higher-than-average chance of rain during Derby weekend hold. With the potential for a wet track on the horizon, qualities like stamina, balance, and composure under pressure could be more prominent than usual. Horses that can maintain their stride and acceleration on off-tracks may gain an edge when it counts most.
The season has been relatively kind on the health front so far. Most of the leading contenders remain sound and in training, avoiding the setbacks that have derailed Derby hopes in years past. A few have encountered minor physical issues, casting uncertainty on their readiness as the big day approaches.
Photo courtesy Courier-Journal
Prepping for the Race’s Betting Market: For bettors, the prep races are far more than simple tune-ups—they serve as critical barometers that shape expectations and influence the betting market leading up to Churchill Downs. Whether dominant or disappointing, each performance sends ripples through the wagering landscape. A breakout win can quickly shorten a horse’s odds, while a lackluster showing might cause even a once-favored runner to drift in the eyes of the public and bookmakers alike.
These fluctuations reflect more than win-loss records—they capture evolving perceptions around form, distance suitability, running style, and even how well a horse might handle a chaotic 20-horse field on Derby day. Bettors pay close attention to final placings and nuances like race splits, traffic trouble, and how a horse finishes under pressure. Looking ahead, the betting market is likely to remain highly fluid. Upcoming workouts will offer additional clues about each contender’s fitness and readiness, while the all-important post-position draw can dramatically alter a horse’s perceived chances depending on track tendencies.
Final declarations—especially any late scratches or surprise entries—can also shake things up, presenting valuable opportunities for those who quickly spot shifts in value.
Final Words: The 2025 prep race season has offered plenty of clues, drama, and revelations. From tactical shifts to track conditions and betting trends, every development is shaping what promises to be another thrilling showdown at Churchill Downs. Key takeaways include the emergence of more front-running tactics, the importance of versatility in track conditions, and the growing value in overlooked horses with consistent form. Trainers and jockeys are adjusting their strategies, the weather remains an unpredictable wild card, and the betting market is responding in real time to the ebbs and flows of performance.
