His teams consistently underperform in the playoffs.
Hockey, at its core, is a numbers game. Goals are the currency, and in the NHL, elite teams tend to land in the upper 200-goal range per season. In game theory terms, a general manager’s job is to “purchase” goals efficiently—balancing elite talent acquisition with salary cap constraints, depth, and roster composition. Kyle Dubas, hailed as a forward-thinking hockey mind, has had the rare privilege of managing two of the league’s premier goal-scorers: Auston Matthews and Sidney Crosby. And yet, despite that firepower, his teams have consistently underperformed in the playoffs. Why? Because Dubas has been outbid in the most crucial marketplace: the postseason.
Photo courtesy Pittsburgh Hockey Now
The Economics of Goals, What Dubas Had to Work With: Let’s first establish some scoring benchmarks to understand Dubas’s tenure with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Pittsburgh Penguins—the best offensive teams in the modern NHL average around 300 goals a season. The gold standard is that the 1983-84 Edmonton Oilers scored 401 goals. But in today’s cap era, 300 is typically the ceiling. Last season, the Colorado Avalanche led the league with 302 goals. Dubas’ teams have never approached that. In Toronto, with Matthews—arguably the most prolific goal-scorer of this generation—the Leafs’ highest-scoring season under Dubas was 2021-22, when they notched 315 goals. Matthews is a scoring machine, coming off a 2023-24 season where he tallied 69 goals. In theory, that kind of firepower should translate into deep playoff runs. Instead, the Leafs under Dubas managed just one series win in six years.
The Impact of Home Ice and Power Plays on Matthews’ Performance: Part of the problem is Matthews’ performance split between home and away games and his power-play success. Research shows that elite goal-scorers, particularly those like Matthews, often see their numbers skewed by favorable home-ice matchups and extended opportunities on the power play. For instance, many of Matthews’ goals come in Toronto’s friendly confines, with power-play situations further inflating his stats. When he’s on the road or facing high-caliber postseason defenses, his production doesn’t match up to his regular-season dominance. This phenomenon isn’t a coincidence. According to research by Sian Bellock on choking under pressure, athletes like Matthews, who thrive in controlled, familiar environments, often falter when exposed to the heightened intensity of the playoffs. Bellock’s work suggests that stars like Matthews may underperform when the stakes are highest—essentially “choking”—because of the increased pressure and defensive schemes that limit their space.
Playoff Math: How Dubas’ Teams Should Have Performed vs. Reality: Regular-season goal-scoring is one thing, but the margin for error in the playoffs shrinks. Using expected playoff appearances based on goal production and team strength, let’s run the numbers on Dubas’ teams:
Toronto Maple Leafs (2018-2023)
– Should Have Made Playoffs: **6/6** times
– Actual Playoff Appearances: **6/6**
– Expected Series Wins: **At least 6** (assuming a Cup-contending team should average one round per year)
– Actual Series Wins: **1**
– Overperformance/Underperformance: **-5 rounds**
Pittsburgh Penguins (2023-Present):
– Should Have Made Playoffs: **TBD** (but given Crosby, expectations were high)
– Current Playoff Projection: **Fringe team at best**
What does this tell us? Dubas-built teams have made the playoffs as expected, but they’ve dramatically underperformed once they get there. Even teams with Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang—battle-tested champions—have struggled under his leadership.
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Photo courtesy NBC Sports
What Dubas Misses: The Cost of Playoff Goals: Here’s the key problem: regular-season and playoff goals are different. The NHL postseason is about **goal scarcity**—games tighten up, defense reigns, and depth scoring becomes the deciding factor. Dubas has built teams that can score in October through April but falter in May and June. Compare this to the great dynasties. The 1980s Oilers had Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier and crucial secondary scorers like Jari Kurri, Glenn Anderson, and Paul Coffey. The 1990s Penguins had Mario Lemieux and Jaromír Jágr, but they also had Ron Francis and Kevin Stevens contributing meaningful playoff production. The Lightning, Avalanche, and Golden Knights have all won modern Cups with elite stars *and* third-line depth that delivered when it mattered. Dubas’ Toronto teams were built with a flawed assumption: elite talent alone can overcome playoff defenses. His refusal to invest in gritty, two-way forwards (until it was too late) doomed the Leafs year after year. Now, he’s walking the same path in Pittsburgh—betting on aging stars without reinforcing them with the kind of depth that wins championships.
Game Theory in Action: Dubas is Paying the Wrong Price: If goals are the NHL’s currency, then playoff goals are a luxury market — expensive and scarce. Like an investor obsessed with high-yield stocks, Dubas has put all his money into elite scorers while neglecting the safer, steady investments (depth forwards, defensive specialists, playoff-tested veterans). It’s not that his teams haven’t spent money—they’ve spent plenty. It’s that they’ve spent inefficiently. A team can’t just purchase 200 goals and expect them to translate evenly into the playoffs. This is especially true when most of those goals come during power play and at home. Under those circumstances, a loss of home ice, with proper line management by the opposition, is and has been a death sentence. The fact is that no one is smart enough to work in sports, and no one can predict the future. As such, teams that continue to diversify, build chemistry with depth, and make last-minute trades for Brad Marchand for a pick or add depth on the second and third line like Tampa will have Dubas’s teams won’t. Come playoff time, that should and will make the difference. If I’m ever wrong, it will be luck, not skill. Don’t let him tell you differently.
