Difficult draws make for challenging picks.
Now that the Selection Committee has made its decisions, I can evaluate the first-round tournament matchups.
Remember, I evaluate lower mid-major teams (see info at the end of this article), which means that even the “best of the best” get high seeds. Here’s how they stack up this season.
#11 Drake vs. #6 Missouri, Thursday, West Region, 7:35 PM, truTV, (following data as of Monday Morning, March 17, per ESPN) Drake +6.5 with a 27% chance of winning
#12 University of California, San Diego vs. #5 Michigan, Thursday South Region, 10 PM, TBS, UCSD +3.5, 33% chance of winning
#13 Yale vs. #4 Texas A & M, Thursday, South Region, 7:25 PM, TBS, Yale, +7.5, 22% chance of winning
#13 High Point vs. #4 Purdue, Thursday, Midwest Region, 12:40 PM, truTV, HPU +8.5, 18% chance of winning
#14 University of North Carolina Wilmington vs. #3 Texas Tech, Thursday, West Region, 10:10 PM, truTV, UNCW +15.5, 8% chance of winning
#14 Lipscomb vs. #3 Iowa State, Friday, South Region, 1:30 PM, TNT, Lipscomb +13.5, 8% chance of winning
#15 Bryant vs. #2 Michigan State, Friday South Region, 10 PM, TBS, Bryant +18.5, 6% chance of winning
According to the NCAA’s NET rankings as of March 17 (see hyperlink at the article’s end), note where my picks rank among 324 teams: #35 UCSD, #56 Drake, #72 Yale. #82 High Point, #84 Lipscomb, #102 UNCW, #141 Bryant.
Do I think any of these clubs can manufacture a surprise this week? These teams are all good in their own right, and it’s about the competition (match-ups) regarding the ones that “have a chance,” that is, beat the spread or win outright. The best chances, IMO ….
Drake vs. Missouri (SEC): The Bulldogs could win outright and have an excellent opportunity to beat the spread.
Yale vs. Texas A&M (SEC): Bulldogs (a pattern here) could spring a surprise down the stretch if they keep the score close. For that to happen, John Poulakidas must have an exceptionally strong game.
High Point vs. Purdue (Big Ten): Those unfamiliar with High Point don’t realize this is an excellent team, including inside size in the person of 7-foot Juslin Bodo Bodo. Purdue has fallen to lower mid-majors (St. Peter’s and Fairleigh Dickinson), so why not again?
High Point’s 7-foot Juslin Bodo Bodo (photo, HPU)
Lipscomb vs. Iowa State (Big 12): Gosh! I don’t like picking against an alma mater, but in this case, it’s an injury to Cyclone starting guard Keshon Gilbert, 14 ppg, four assists per game, and 50% shooting from the field. Can LU win? I think it will be a close game until a late ISU burst.
What about the other match-ups?
My take for the best of the lot is UNCW vs. Texas Tech (Big 12). I like how the Seahawks play, but the load is primarily in the hands of Newby (G) and McGriff (F), and I don’t know if they have enough to get the team a W.
UCSD’s Hayden Grey (photo courtesy UCSD)
I’m also a big fan of UCSD, the club with the lowest NET rating (#35), which explains why it also has the highest chance of winning per ESPN, even though it is matched up with Michigan, the Big 10 tournament champ.
The problem is that UCSD is guard- and long-range shooting-oriented, and I don’t see how they will handle the Wolverines’ length, not to speak of their speed. That said, watch the play of Tritons’ Hayden Grey, who shot (no misprint here) 86% from three with 22 points against UC Irvine in the Big West tourney championship game.
The final pick, Bryant, seems out of its league against the Big Ten Spartans, an opponent with size, good ballhandling, and (most importantly) uber-bench strength. MSU has too many bodies and tournament experience to be upset. I had hoped for a better match-up because (as I’ve written elsewhere) Bryant is a Cinderella-type team, reminding me of what UMBC did vs. Virginia in 2018. I’m also a big fan of St. John’s transfer, 6-6 Rafael Pinzo (see the cover photo), and Bryant’s feisty coach, Phil Martelli, Jr.
We may not have a St. Peter’s-like shocker this season. But even if there aren’t any lower mid-major surprises, that doesn’t mean we won’t have an upper mid-major (or two or three) score an upset.
With that in mind, the teams I like best (favorite picks in bold): McNeese over Clemson, VCU over BYU, Utah State over UCLA, Colorado St over Memphis, St. Mary’s over Vanderbilt, Grand Canyon over Maryland, New Mexico over Marquette, Akron over Arizona.
And don’t forget to follow #16 St. Francis of Pennsylvania, a team in the field with a losing record. It’s a great story, and the Red Flash have a great chance to advance vs. Alabama State on Tuesday, 6:40 PM, on truTV.
That’s it for this year. Enjoy!
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I evaluate Lower Mid-Major conferences and teams before the conference season begins and later around conference tournament time. The January evaluation is based on pre-conference performance, primarily how teams perform against Upper Mid-Major and Major teams. The subsequent review. just published, is based on how teams perform in their respective conferences (regular season and tournament).
Let me comment on my screening process for those reading my annual analysis for the first time. I don’t consider teams that play in eight Upper Mid-Major conferences, which I see as the Atlantic 10, American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, Western Athletic, and West Coast. Instead, I focus on 18 Lower Mid-Major conferences, which I see as the Atlantic Sun, America East, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Coastal Athletic, Horizon, Ivy, Mid-Atlantic Athletic (MAAC), Mid-Eastern Athletic (MEAC), Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southwest Athletic (SWAC), Southern, Southland, and Summit.
