There’s so much to look forward to with the Mets in 2025 after a great ride in the summer and fall of last season that ended with an NLCS appearance. But is the starting rotation good enough to compete for a league championship and World Series crown?
The Amazins built off this momentum by signing Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million deal in the offseason. Not only did they make him the highest-paid baseball player ever to get him to play for them, but they swiped him from the Yankees.
The Mets will be predicated on their offense, just like last year. It should be good enough for them to make the playoffs in a loaded NL East, most likely as a wild-card team. The team also added plenty of depth in the bullpen. But the starting rotation is a question mark for the Metropolitans.
The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have the edge over them, and one can say the San Diego Padres and Dodgers have a better-starting rotation than them, too. It could be why the Mets fall short of a championship this season.
As good as the starters were last year, they struggled against the Dodgers in the NL Championship Series. They gave up too many hit-me pitches to the Dodgers hitters.
Kodai Senga (photo courtesy AP/Pamela Smith)
The Mets need Kodai Senga healthy all season, especially in October, to achieve their championship goals. He has the best stuff of all the starters. He can overwhelm hitters with the ghost forkball, cutter, slider, and curveball. It would be nice to see him make 30 starts this season.
We saw how good Senga could be in his rookie season a few years ago. He finished with a 12-7 season with a 2.98 ERA and 202 strikeouts over 166 2/3 innings in 29 starts, good enough to earn a second-place finish in National League Rookie of the Year voting. When the Mets ace made his lone start against the Atlanta Braves last season, he mesmerized the fans by allowing two runs on two hits with nine strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings in his return from the injured list in February with a shoulder injury.
But then calamity came. Senga strained his calf on an infield popout at that start, and his regular season was over.
He pitched in the playoffs by making two abbreviated starts and appearing out of the bullpen in another game. He allowed seven runs in five innings in a valiant effort just by pitching in it. If Senga had been healthy, the Mets might have beaten the Dodgers. It was not meant to be.
The Mets have to hope history does not repeat itself for him. Injuries can be dicey.
Sean Manaea (photo courtesy News.AZ)
Can Manaea duplicate last season’s success? He showed what he could do last year due to the Mets’ pitching lab, which made a difference with his arm slot by being a near-sidearmer. Over his final 12 starts of the season, he logged more innings than anyone on the Mets starting rotation and pitched to a 3.09 ERA.
Can David Peterson build off last year’s success? He stepped up during the summer, which played a role in the Mets’ run. He pitched to a 2.90 ERA over 21 starts. He even started going deep in games as the season went on. He has shown he can be an effective starter returning to the 2022 season. It could have been that he was finally healthy last year, which made him effective after hip surgery.
Can Opening Day starter Clay Holmes translate an excellent spring training performance to the regular season? In the four games he started this spring, he was impressive with a 1.29 ERA and 0.71 WHIP with his 15 strikeouts. Even if he does well, he may be good enough to be a No. 3 starter at best.
Paul Blackburn should be an effective starter as long as he’s healthy. Griffin Canning has shown he can throw strikes. Along with Montas and Holmes, he could benefit from the Mets’ pitching lab.
But with Senga’s health issues and the rotation being full of No. 3 or 4 starters at best, the Mets need an ace that can go mano a mano against the Dodgers in October.
The Mets should have signed Corbin Burnes this offseason. He would have been a great complement to Senga and Manaea—heck, he would have been the staff’s ace. However, Mets president of baseball operations, David Stearns, does not believe in giving players that many years. Burns received a six-year, $210 million deal from the Arizona Diamondbacks. It would have made more sense than relying on a reclamation project such as Canning and Montas.
The guess here is that Stearns has a plan, another reason he did not express interest in signing Burnes. He hopes Brandon Sproat can be that call-up that makes a difference in the rotation this summer. Maybe Blade Tidwell will join him. There is also a school of thought that the Mets could give up Sproat and Tidwell to get Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara, a proven starter who can handle the Dodgers in October. But that’s less likely since Stearns is committed to building through the farm system.
Of course, Mets owner Steve Cohen can change things. If he believes the Mets are a starter away from being a World Series champion, he will move to get Alcantara.
Right now, this rotation is in flux. That’s the best way to say it. There will be changes as the season goes on.
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Cover graphic courtesy MLB.com
