Drake appears to be the best team, and inarguably, the Red Flash of St. Francis (PA) is the best story.
I evaluate Lower Mid-Major conferences and teams (see definition at the end of this article) before the conference season begins and later around conference tournament time. The January evaluation is based on pre-conference performance, primarily how teams perform against Upper Mid-Major and Major teams. The subsequent review is based on how teams perform in their respective conferences (regular season and tournament).
Here are the five teams I picked as best in my initial 2024-25 season assessment.
Drake (Missouri Valley Conference)
January Assessment: Drake has triumphed over Miami (FL), Kansas State, Florida Atlantic, and Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs have not lost a beat after head coach Darian DeVries and son (star player) Tucker left Des Moines for West Virginia. Ben McCollum has kept it going, led by junior guard Bennett Stirtz, who leads the team in scoring and assists. He is also hitting 50% of his shots from the field.
Coach Ben McCollum (graphic courtesy YouTube)
Assessment Now: The Bulldogs (30-3) beat a good Bradley team (26-8) to win the conference tournament and the regular season championship by two games over the Braves. NCAA NET ranking #56.
Columbia (Ivy League)
January Assessment: The Lions beat Villanova but have not played a demanding schedule otherwise. Coach Jim Engles relies on a senior player from the Dominican Republic who may have the longest name in major college play: Geronimo Rubio De La Rosa. De La Rosa is a triple threat, averaging nearly 20 points a game with mid-single digits in rebounding, assists, and steals. Could Columbia be the new Princeton?
Assessment Now (dropped from the list): Talk about falling off a cliff!
The Lions were 11-2 at the end of the non-conference season and ended up 12-15 at season’s end. They lost 13 of 14 Ivy games and seven in a row to close the year.
University of California, San Diego (Big West)
Courtesy UCSD
January Assessment: Solid! This team has beaten Utah State, LaSalle, Toledo, and James Madison. Moreover, no Cardinals, Bears, Cougars, or Wildcats are these guys. They are Tritons, a large mollusk in tropical and subtropical areas. (That’s nice but not as creative as UC Santa Cruz’s choice … Banana Slugs.) UCSD has balanced scoring with four double-figure starters, led by Western Carolina transfer Tyler McGhie, Hawaii Hilo transfer Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, and sharpshooter Hayden Gray. Few fans pay attention to Out West basketball, but I encourage you to follow this team.
Assessment Now: The Tritons won the regular season championship (18-2) and beat a very good Cal-Irvine team to win the Big West tournament championship (the 28-6 Anteaters will just miss getting an at-large bid). Winners of 15 consecutive games and 30 overall, UCSD has the highest NET ranking of any of my lower mid-major selections at #36 nationally, which is higher than Texas and Creighton among others. With solid ball handling and shooting, a big man in the middle is the principal thing lacking.
College of Charleston (Coastal Athletic Conference)
January Assessment: Charleston has handled St Joe’s, Florida Atlantic, and the University of South Florida. This year, the Cougars are led by Croatian Ante Brzovic, a 6’10” senior forward who scores nearly 20 points a game and grabs almost ten rebounds per contest. He’s assisted by combo guards AJ Smith and Deywilk Tavarez, who are double-digit scorers. The head coach is experienced Chris Mack, formerly of Xavier and Louisville fame.
Assessment Now (dropped from the list). This one hurts.
The Cougars won 13 of 18 league games but finished third in the league behind Towson (champ) and UNC Wilmington. Then, CoC lost the conference tournament semi by a single point to UNCW, coming from behind in the second half to take the lead multiple times in a back-and-forth affair. But CofC went dry in the last two minutes until Taverz hit a three at the buzzer.
Furman (Southern Conference)
January Assessment: Good news … beat Princeton, Belmont, and Tulane, but the bad news … lost to Kansas by 35. Ouch! With seven players contributing 17 or more minutes a game, balance is the word for these Paladins. If you wonder, Paladins were knights of Charlemagne’s court known for heroism and chivalry. But the interesting thing is that Furman once had different nicknames for different sports teams. The baseball team was known as the Hornets, the football team as the Hurricanes, and the basketball team as the Paladins. (A good business back in the day was printing Furman tee-shirts). Probably out of frustration or the need for consistency, a local sportswriter ended the confusion by using Paladins to describe all of Furman’s athletic endeavors. That was then, and today, the basketball Paladins rely on senior guard PJay (that’s not a misprint) Smith. Another strength is Bob Richey, the head coach since 2016. Richey has won nearly 70% of the games and has experience winning in the Big Dance, taking down Virginia in 2023.
PJay! (photo courtesy Furman University)
Assessment Now (dropped from the list). I thought this one would be a “no-brainer.” It would have been had Furman (-1.5) beaten 19-15 Wofford in the conference championship. But the 25-9 Paladins did not. So, instead, we have a tournament champ (never in the mix for a bid) going Dancin’. But there were chinks in Furman’s armor before that loss. The Paladins only lost two games going into the SoCon season but then lost seven games to conference rivals and ended up finishing fifth in a league they should have won. Underperforming Furman (NET ranking of #131) will play elsewhere, but certainly not in the big tournament. Disappointing!
So, my scorecard is 2-3, with Drake and UCSD in, Columbia out, and Charleston and Furman close but not in. But other Lower Mid-Majors have excelled this season, and here is my list of five that just missed out getting into my Top 5 in January.
All five of these teams won their conference tournaments and have had their tickets punched for March Madness.
UNC Wilmington (Coastal Athletic)
Watch Donovan Newby and Sean Moore, scoring/assists and rebound leaders, respectively. The Seahawks have won six in a row, and–with the right match-up–it could be seven. #102 in NCAA NET rankings
Lipscomb (A-Sun)
This team has also won six straight games. The Bisons have five players scoring in double figures, led by Valpo transfer Jacob Ognacevic (20 ppg). He adds over eight rebounds a game, making him a player to watch next week. The issue is how the team has performed against higher Upper Mid-Majors and Major teams. The answer is not good, losing to Arkansaw by nearly 20 and Kentucky by almost 30. Still, LU has had moments, beating Duquesne and Western Kentucky on the road and Wofford at home. #84 in the NCAA NET rankings
Bryant (America East)
With a season record of 22-11 going into the conference championship, this team had to beat Maine to get into the Big Dance. They did, and the Bulldogs’ win streak stands at six (I see a pattern here). I especially like St. John’s transfer Rafael Pinzon, the team’s scoring leader at nearly 20 a game.
Rafael Pinzon (photo Bryant U)
This is a gritty group, and if it gets into the tournament, I see Bryant as a team that can pull off a big win, as St. Peter’s, UMBC, Farleigh Dickinson, etc., have done in previous tournaments. #150 in the NCAA NET rankings
Yale (Ivy League)
The 22-7 Elis (13-1, Ivy) won the regular season Ivy championship and then beat Princeton in a surprisingly close tournament semi-final and Cornell in the final to get their ticket punched. John Poulakidas (20 PPG) is the team’s leading scorer, and he hit a three with a minute left to down Princeton.
I like the intelligence of this team, especially in tight, down-the-stretch games. We’ve seen that before in the March Madness from Princeton, and it shows that you can win even without having an all-star roster. The primary concern is that Yale ranks #108 in scoring defense, and you want an Ivy team that’s stingy with points.
High Point (Big South)
Tubby Smith’s alma mater is having a good year (29-5, conference regular season and tournament champs). The Panthers almost made my first Top 5 list in January with a 14-3 non-conference, having beaten UAB, North Texas, and Southern Illinois. Then, they followed that up with a 14-2 conference campaign. HPU doesn’t feature a primary scorer, relying on balanced scoring instead. Plus, 7-footer Juslin Bodo Bodo from Cameroon is their man in the middle.
High Point’s 7-foot Juslin Bodo Bodo (photo, HPU)
He is pulling down almost 10 rebounds per game and hitting nearly two of every three shots. This is an easy team to take for granted, but I’m telling you that a W won’t come easily. Don’t look past the Panthers! #83 NCAA NET rankings
Special Shout Out to a Team that’s Dancin’ with a Losing Record and $0 NIL Budget
Finally, let’s acknowledge St. Francis of Loretto, PA, not because the Red Flash are among the best lower mid-majors (they are not) but because they MADE the tournament. SFU plays in the Northeast Conference, which ranks towards the bottom of the Lower Mid-Major conferences. But don’t sell the conference short. It’s also the home of giant killer Fairleigh Dickinson, a #16-seed that vanquished #1-seed Purdue in 2023.
A few days ago, St. Francis traveled to Central Connecticut to take on regular season champs for the conference championship. The 10-point underdogs did it, winning 46-43, for its fifth consecutive win in a 16-17 year (#297 NET) and getting its first NCAA bid in nearly 35 years. SFU’s head coach, Rob Krimmel, went to St. Francis as a student, played there, and stayed there–as a grad assistant, then assistant coach, and now as head coach. Krimmel’s NIL budget is $0.
St. Francis is a stellar example of what makes the tournament fun and memorable. There is nothing else like it in major competitive sports.
(History note: SFU is the oldest Franciscan college in the U.S. (founded in 1847), and nearby Saint Vincent College (founded in 1846) is the oldest Benedictine college in the U.S. The two schools in Western Pennsylvania are 55 miles apart, SFU in Loretto, PA (1500 pop) and SVC in Latrobe, PA, Arnold Palmer’s hometown (8000 pop).
Hail to the red and white
For victory, we fight
Stand up and cheer
The Red Flash is here
To fight on with all our might Hail to the red and white
For victory, we fight
We say it loud ’cause
We all are proud
To be Saint Francis University
GO! FIGHT! SFU! We are Saint Francis University
_________
Let me comment on my screening process for those reading my annual analysis for the first time. I don’t consider teams that play in eight Upper Mid-Major conferences, which I see as the Atlantic 10, American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, Western Athletic, and West Coast. Instead, I focus on 18 Lower Mid-Major conferences, which I see as the Atlantic Sun, America East, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Coastal Athletic, Horizon, Ivy, Mid-Atlantic Athletic (MAAC), Mid-Eastern Athletic (MEAC), Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southwest Athletic (SWAC), Southern, Southland, and Summit.
