Baseball fans like to speak of records that will never be broken. But never is a long time. Still, “never” may not be long enough for these players and records.
Usually, when someone says a record will never be broken, it is a subjective opinion, but consider these accomplishments. George Sisler had 257 hits in 1920, which seemed unapproachable — until Ichiro Suzuki spanked out 262 in 2004. Lou Brock’s 118 stolen bases in 1974 seemed untouchable — until Rickey Henderson stole 130 in 1982.
Then, consider this take. Douglas Jordan took an analytical approach in a story he wrote for the Baseball Research Journal (Fall, 2015). He defined “never be broken” as the record will not be broken over the next 110 baseball seasons played under rules similar to today’s rules (italics added). Then, he went about computing the probability of certain records being eclipsed.
Jordan used Cal Ripken’s record of 2,632 consecutive games played as the standard against which other records are compared when examining the likelihood of broken records. Ripken played more than 16 straight seasons without missing a game! Reynolds looked at records from 1903 on. In addition to Ripken’s, here are some single-season and career records that should stand the test of time:
Rickey Henderson (photo, The Shadow League)
Let’s start with Rickey Henderson’s 130 steals. He stole three bases in six games and had three incredible games in which he stole four. He had a games-played-per-stolen-base average of 1.15. The next highest stolen-base total in the 21st century is 78 by Jose Reyes in 2007, with a games-played-per-stolen-base average of 2.05. So Henderson was almost twice as productive as Reyes on a per-game basis.
In addition, baseball has come to revolve around the long ball rather than the stolen base, and teams are reluctant to let a star like Mike Trout take the pounding of stealing many bases during the season. It is safe to say that Henderson’s mark will never be broken.
Regarding career records, Henderson’s total of 1,406 stolen bases is absurd. It is 468 stolen bases and is 50 percent better than Lou Brock’s second-place total of 938.
Suzuki’s 262 hits are also in that category. An analysis of George Sisler’s 257 hits shows that he played in every game, made 692 plate appearances, struck out only 19 times, walked 46 times, and batted .407. Suzuki played in all but one of the Mariner’s games (161), led the league in plate appearances (762) and batting average (.372), struck out just 63 times, and walked only 49 times.
Photo courtesy Mariners Blog
These numbers show that to challenge the hits record, a player has to play in almost every game of the season, have a very high number of plate appearances, hit for a high average, and not walk very much. A high average alone will not do the job. For example, even with the 56-game hitting streak in 1941 and a .357 batting average, Joe DiMaggio had 193 hits. Ted Williams had 185 hits that same year when he batted .406. It is unlikely anyone will ever match Suzuki’s incredible season.
There are several reasons Hack Wilson’s record of 191 RBIs in 1930 should stand forever. One is that Woody English and Kiki Cuyler batted in front of Wilson that season and had OBAs of .430 and .428, respectively. But take nothing away from Wilson — he batted .356 and led the league in home runs (56) and slugging (.723). He had two games with six RBIs, three with five RBIs, seven with four RBIs, and 15 with three RBIs. He drove in 12 runs in the last five games of the season.
Barry Bonds’ remarkable 232 walks in 2004 is unlikely ever to be broken. Babe Ruth is the next best player on the walk list records, with 170 in 1923. The only player to pass 170 is Bonds, who did it thrice between 2001 and 2004.
John “Chief” Wilson (photo courtesy Wikipedia)
John “Chief” Wilson’s record of 36 triples in 1912 is just as safe. That mark is 38 percent better than the next highest post-1902 total (26). Curtis Granderson’s 23 in 2007 is the most recent high for triples, with most modern-day years having a high well under 20 triples. The Pirates’ home ballpark in 1912, Forbes Field, helped Wilson. The center field wall was an astounding 462 feet from home plate.
Here are two pitching records that will never be touched — Ed Walsh pitched 464 innings in 1908, and Jack Chesbro had 41 wins in 1904. These totals are out of reach today since starting pitchers have a maximum of about 35 starts during a season.
Hank Aaron’s 2,297 career RBIs will probably never be bettered, though Albert Pujols came close with 2,218. Aaron reached 118 or more RBIs in nine seasons, with a career-high 132 in 1957. He had two other seasons with over 100 and seven seasons between 86 and 97.
It staggers the imagination to think that anybody will ever equal Peter Rose’s 4,256 career hits. To get 4,000 hits, a player has to play 20 seasons with 200 hits each season. As great as Derek Jeter’s 20-year career was, his 3,465 career hits are almost 800 short of Rose’s record.
So, should Rose be in the Hall of Fame? That’s a topic for another day.
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This column first appeared in The Vacaville Reporter on July 22, 2020.
