To quote Mac from It’s Always Sunny, “Cool off!” But the PAC 7 (?) question remains.
Just when we seemed on the verge of the Super 2 consolidating everything further, ACC and ESPN came in with a twist in late January, agreeing to the long-discussed extension now ending with the 2035-36 academic calendar (let’s call the first year ‘football,’ second-year ‘basketball,’ for sports shorthand).
The deal includes Notre Dame playing five or six games in the ACC, including this year, further solidifying the ACC as a “17+1” conference in terms of membership. The Irish already had a long-term scheduling agreement with the conference lasting through the 2037 season, which is forever in college sports. Additionally, a twist to the ESPN extension is more Notre Dame vs. Miami/FSU/Clemson games, stipulating that the Irish should play at least two of the three yearly.
The outcome is nothing short of astounding! Notre Dame is permanently blocking a 2030 Big Ten move alongside North Carolina (if not Virginia) to forge its unique independent path. That outcome wouldn’t have happened if the Irish had gotten their asses kicked in the first round. Winning three CFP games and making it to the CFP Championship has given the Irish confidence that they can win the national title in any league or, if need be, entirely on its own.
Yes, ND lost to Big Ten’s Ohio State in the 2025 championship. Still, the Irish won the long game by showing that avoiding a conference championship and getting a home game is a viable path to a national title. The Irish essentially told the Big Ten, “We didn’t need you in the first place.”
So, I’ve returned to the conclusion of my first article, namely, that the Power 4 will essentially stay the same. The only pieces remaining on the horizon are UConn (the last independent aside from ND) and San Diego State. Those moves will give the Big 12 a newfound presence in the West and Northeast, making (as I see it) the Big 12 the best of the Power 4. Those moves will severely tarnish the Big East’s claim as a “power” basketball conference.
What is up for grabs? Look to the Group of 6. The Pac 7 (eight if you include Gonzaga) needs at least one more member (make it UNLV) and could probably add Memphis and Tulane. Making $15 to $20 million per school per year isn’t a power conference number, but it is far and away the most lucrative take among the Group of 6.
Here are the projections I’ve gotten from Google’s Gemini.
“Media Deal Projections
| Scenario | Added Teams | Estimated Additional Value Per School Per Year (Millions) | Total Value Per School Per Year (Millions) | Total Conference Value Per Year (Millions) | Notes |
| 8 Teams | UNLV, Gonzaga (0.5 share) | +$7 (UNLV) | $13.75 (full share), $6.88 (Gonzaga) | $110.63 | This scenario prioritizes the Las Vegas market. UNLV adds more value alone than Memphis in this scenario because of no need for a travel partner. Gonzaga is a major boost. |
| 10 Teams | Memphis, Tulane, UNLV, Gonzaga (0.5 share) | +$8 (Memphis), +$6 (Tulane), +$7 (UNLV) | $17.25 (full share), $8.63 (Gonzaga) | $181.13 | This remains the most well-rounded option, adding strong basketball programs (Memphis, Tulane, UNLV, Gonzaga), geographic diversity, and decent markets. |
| 12 Teams | Memphis, Tulane, UNLV, Nevada, New Mexico, Gonzaga (0.5 share) | +$3 (Nevada), +$3 (New Mexico) | $18.73 (full share), $9.36 (Gonzaga) | $234.12 | Nevada and New Mexico add some geographic diversity, but their value is limited. The overall increase in media revenue might not be substantial enough to justify their inclusion if the Pac-7 can find a media partner with just 10 teams. |
Key Observations:
–8 Teams (UNLV Only) is Viable: Adding only UNLV in the 8-team scenario is now a more attractive option than adding Memphis without Tulane. It secures the Las Vegas market and, with Gonzaga, significantly enhances the conference’s basketball profile.
–10 Teams Still Strongest: The 10-team scenario with Memphis, Tulane, UNLV, and Gonzaga remains the most balanced and lucrative option. It provides the best combination of basketball strength, market appeal, and geographic diversity.
–12 Teams Less Appealing: Without FAU and UTSA as significant value drivers, the 12-team scenario becomes less appealing. Nevada and New Mexico don’t add enough to justify the expansion … unless the Pac-7 is very confident of a larger media deal.
Conclusion: The Pac-7’s optimal expansion strategy likely involves adding UNLV alone to reach the 8-team minimum or going for the 10-team configuration with Memphis, Tulane, and UNLV alongside Gonzaga. The 12-team scenario is less attractive unless the conference can secure a surprisingly large media rights deal.
The Pac-7’s decision depends on several factors:
—Media Partner Negotiations: The offers they receive from potential media partners will be paramount.
—Risk Tolerance: Are they willing to gamble on a smaller deal with 8 or 10 teams, or will they push for 12, hoping for a larger payout?
—Long-Term Vision: Do they prioritize immediate stability or long-term growth?
The next few months will be crucial as the Pac-7 navigates these decisions and attempts to secure its future. The fate of the conference hangs in the balance.
The results indicate that past UNLV, Memphis, and Tulane have similar marginal value, and the next two best options (Nevada and New Mexico) don’t add much to a hypothetical media deal from 2026 to 2033.
The AAC will have 12 remaining members (13 in basketball with Wichita State), while the Mountain West will be down to eight in football (considering Northern Illinois (?) recently joined in football only), which still meets the FBS minimum. Maybe New Mexico State will join UTEP to form a natural pair of travel partners in the Southwest. Perhaps the four major Mountain Time Zone FCS powers–North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Montana State, and Montana–join the Mountain West in one fell swoop to reinvigorate a league that is on thin ice. I could also see the Air Force moving to the AAC to be with their fellow service academies in Army and Navy, making a marketing boom for the ‘American’ Athletic Conference.
The bottom line is clear. The ACC and Notre Dame are the big winners, while the Big Ten and SEC are still far ahead of everyone else. The Power 4 is coming into balance with ACC stability, while UConn plus possibly SDSU are on the horizon for the Big 12. The Group of 6 will see the Pac 11 (remember Gonzaga) emerge as the best conference of the bunch, while the Mountain West may have to dip into the FCS for relevance. Overall, with Clemson and FSU now unavailable to the SEC (or Miami or Virginia Tech)–and no UNC and ND to the Big Ten–the Power 4 has stabilized at the top, making the subsequent debate about a 12 or 14-team playoff the new hot button issue for the Power 4 power brokers.
With 14 teams, there are two additional bids and two first-round byes, and that would be an apparent coup for the Big Ten and SEC. The ACC (shrewd and united) and Big 12 (with Yormark, the most forward-thinking commissioner) are smart enough to know that lawsuits (should they be filed) would block expansion beyond 12 teams. Meanwhile, the Group of 6 would see diminished representation in a 14-team tournament vs 12 teams, and that means it would likely oppose expansion as well.
The Big Ten and SEC propose a 4+4+2+2+1+1 model, which translates into four automatic bids each for the SEC and Big Ten, two each for the ACC and Big 12, one for the Group of 6, and one for the best at-large team, which, in most years, will be Notre Dame. Heather Dinich of ESPN reported that the SEC and Big Ten recently rejected a 3+3+2+2+1+1 model. Four first-round byes in a 12-team playoff befit a sport with four power conferences. Fourteen would consolidate power monopolistically (as I’ve previously discussed), and 16 would feel more like the NCAA basketball tournament than the College Football Playoff.
The two Saturday first-round games that went up against the NFL got less than 10 million viewers, showing that Friday night is truly the only day the CFP is guaranteed to be free of the scourge of NFL dominance. Expansion after such poor TV ratings can’t be justified to anyone who isn’t an SEC or Big Ten executive. So we will probably stay at 12 teams.
Now that college football realignment has slowed, maybe I should take a break, relax, and focus on less stressful topics, like World War III possibilities. Ah, yes, back to normal.
