I base my picks on how “Lower Mid-Major teams” (as defined in the article) have performed against Power and Upper Mid-Major competition in non-conference play.
It’s an annual thing with me–beginning in 2017–picking the teams I think might shock teams from the Power Conferences (Big Ten, Big XII, SEC, ACC, and Big East) during the opening weekend of the NCAA men’s basketball championship.
In my screening process, I don’t consider teams that play in what I refer to as the “Upper Mid-Major” conferences. As I see it, those seven conferences include the Atlantic 10, American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, West Coast, and Sun Belt. The exclusion is because I’m searching for David to slay Goliath, an outcome that genuinely “shocks the world.” However, with many teams stepping up in competition, more care must be taken when tagging a team with the “David” designation. A good example is Florida Atlantic, a Final Four participant in 2023. But inarguably, David was in the house when Saint Peters knocked off Kentucky in March 2022, and Fairleigh Dickinson was there in March 2023 when the Knights shocked Purdue.
Teams like St. Peters and Fairleigh Dickinson compete in “Lover Mid-Major” conferences (N=19). They are the Atlantic Sun, America East, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Coastal Athletic, Horizon, Ivy, Mid-Atlantic Athletic (MAAC), Mid-Eastern Athletic (MEAC), Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southwest Athletic (SWAC), Southern, Southland, Summit, and Western Athletic.
So, how have things gone so far this season? I’ve analyzed how lower mid-major teams in those 19 conferences have performed in non-conference play, specifically how they did against Upper Mid-Major and Major competition. Here’s where my analysis settled (games played through December 18) and my Top Five Teams are….
Drake (Missouri Valley Conference) has triumphed over Miami (FL), Kansas State, Florida Atlantic, and Vanderbilt. The 11-0 Bulldogs have not lost a beat after head coach Darian DeVries and son (star player) Tucker left Des Moines for West Virginia. Ben McCollum has kept it going, led by junior guard Bennett Stirtz, who leads the team in scoring and assists. He is also hitting 50% of his shots from the field.
Columbia (Ivy League) beat Villanova. The 10-1 Lions have not played a demanding schedule, but its win over Villanova stands out. Coach Jim Engles relies on a senior player from the Dominican Republic who may have the longest name in major college play: Geronimo Rubio De La Rosa. De La Rosa is a triple threat, averaging nearly 20 points a game with mid-single digits in rebounding, assists, and steals. Could Columbia be the new Princeton? Holy Pete Carril!
University of California, San Diego (Big West), winners over Utah State, LaSalle, Toledo, and James Madison. No Cardinals, Bears, Cougars, or Wildcats are these guys. They are Tritons, a large mollusk in tropical and subtropical areas. (That’s nice but not as creative as UC Santa Cruz’s choice … Banana Slugs.) Led by Western Carolina transfer Tyler McGhie, 11-2 UCSD has balanced scoring with four double-figure starters. Few fans pay attention to Out West basketball, but I encourage you to follow this team.
College of Charleston (Coastal Athletic Conference) has beaten St Joe’s, Florida Atlantic, and the University of South Florida. North Carolina A&T is now part of the Coastal Conference, as are Northeastern, Elon, and Towson. What characteristics bind those teams? The answer is on page 431 of your workbook. But we know about Charleston, a team that has made basketball headlines. This year, the 8-3 Cougars are led by Croatian Ante Brzovic, a 6’10” senior forward who throws down nearly 20 points a game, complemented by grabbing almost ten rebounds per contest. He’s assisted by combo guards AJ Smith and Deywilk Tavarez, who are double-digit scorers. The head coach is experienced Chris Mack, formerly of Xavier and Louisville fame.
Furman (Southern Conference) won vs. Princeton, Belmont, and Tulane but lost to Kansas by 35. Ouch! With seven players contributing 17 or more minutes a game, balance is the word for these Paladins. If you wonder, Paladins were knights of Charlemagne’s court known for heroism and chivalry. But the interesting thing is that Furman once had different nicknames for different sports teams. The baseball team was known as the Hornets, the football team as the Hurricanes, and the basketball team as the Paladins. (A good business back in the day was printing Furman tee-shirts). Probably out of frustration or the need for consistency, a local sportswriter ended the confusion by using Paladins to describe all of Furman’s athletic endeavors. That was then, and today, the 12-1 basketball Paladins rely on senior guard PJay Smith. Another strength is Bob Richey, the head coach since 2016. Richey has won nearly 70% of the games and has experience winning in the Big Dance, taking down Virginia in 2023.
Until next time, may all your holiday (s)wishes come true!
