Mets manager Carlos Mendoza announced Kodai Senga will start Saturday’s Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies. It was a move nobody saw coming.
Talk about a Friday news dump! The Mets’ actions were undoubtedly gamesmanlike, keeping the Phillies guessing how long Senga would pitch and who the Mets would pitch as the game progressed. What a unique way to try to win a ballgame!
Senga has not faced live batting since he went to the injured list a few months ago. Yes, he rehabbed throughout that time, but that does not replace going up against live hitters.
Here’s the thing: What if it does not work? That is a risk. But the Mets think it’s worth it, playing with house money as they are in Game 1. And I think they just might be able to steal a game this way.
I get it that Senga is great. He showed that when he struck out nine and allowed two hits and two runs on 5 1/3 innings in the Mets’ 8-4 victory over the Atlanta Braves on July 26 in his first and only season start. But he left the game with a calf injury, and I’ve never seen a starting pitcher do well without going through rehab this late in the season.
I doubt the Phillies are going to be fooled. Their lineup boasts so much confidence, the belief they can hit anyone. There’s no reason to fear anyone when you have hitters like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, and then there is Castellanos in that lineup, too.
My guess is Senga won’t last long. If anything, he may be the opener, and then Mendoza will use pitchers by feel until he (hopefully) gets to the seventh inning with a Mets’ lead. Call it a high-risk/high-reward strategy.
What would I have done? I would have started Tylor Megill because he has shown he can pitch well when he has to. He wasn’t great against the Braves on Monday’s Game 1 of the doubleheader, but he kept the Mets in the game and enabled them to have an epic eighth- and ninth-inning comeback. He can give the Mets three or four good innings, and then Mendoza can mix and match relievers based on feel and matchups.
If Senga can pull this off, it will be the trifecta of incredible performances we’ve seen this post-season. He’ll join Francisco Lindor with his ninth-inning home run against the Braves on Monday, which put the Mets in the playoffs, and Pete Alonso when he hit that three-run home run in the ninth inning to give the Mets a 3-2 lead over the Milwaukee Brewers to win the Wild Card series.
If it happens, who among us isn’t going to believe THIS could be the Mets’ year? In sports, luck is part of winning a championship, and so far, Lady Luck has smiled on the Mets.
It’s an intriguing move. Yes, Senga is a great pitcher who had a great season last year, going 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts. His forkball, a thing of beauty, confuses hitters. Moreover, psychologically, Senga will be a shot in the arm for the Mets, perhaps becoming the secret weapon in this series.
There is a lot to ask of Senga. But if one guy can do it, it’s him. But all that said, if it doesn’t work, there will be a whole lot of second-guessing.
