Stakes are high in the Bronx.
There’s no doubt that Juan Soto will test the market. It may be his only last opportunity to do so, and Soto is looking for a long-term $500 million deal that will get him into his 40s. He will get that deal from some team. Maybe it’s the Mets or Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Yankees will be a factor, and they are his first choice. He will sign if they offer him the $500 million he seeks. But therein lies the rub. If the Yankees underachieve in the playoffs again, will Hal Steinbrenner even bother giving his star that massive deal to stay?
The Yankees are already paying a fortune for Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole. To pay Soto what he wants could have a tremendous effect on the Yankees payroll in the next few years, as Steinbrenner noted a few months ago. So, it would be foolish to pay Cole $36 million a year, Judge $40 million a year, and then Soto $50 million a year starting next year to keep being mediocre. There are better ways to run a ball club than that. It’s rare to see a team pay three players that money.
Sure, the Yankees can afford it, but if they underachieve, what’s the point of paying Soto and clogging up future payrolls? It would be bad business.
If the Bronx Bombers decided not to add payroll, that would have affected the luxury tax. What makes anyone think they will pay three players a combined salary of $126 million a year starting next season? That is why I wonder if Soto staying as a Yankee is a fait accompli. It’s going to come down to what the Yankees want to do. There are going to be hard conversations about paying Soto.
It’s interesting why the Yankees did not do much to improve in the trade deadline. They made moves. Jazz Chisholm Jr. made an impression with his four home runs and eight RBIs in his first four games in pinstripes. But they should have done more than get him. They also needed a starter and a closer.
You can’t count on Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon, and Marcus Stroman as your strengths to pitch in October. Who knows what the Yankees will get out of Gerrit Cole, who hasn’t pitched well since returning from the injury list? That’s why they needed to go after Dylan Cease, Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, or Blake Snell. They needed to acquire Tanner Scott as their new closer, given that Clay Holmes isn’t exactly scaring anyone in the ninth with his pitch-to-contract approach.
There should have been a sense of urgency with Soto being in his contract season. Face it: they acquired him as a rental for better or for worse. They should have taken the Dodgers’ approach and done whatever it takes to go to the World Series and win it.
If the Yankees are that scared about the luxury tax, what will happen when it’s time to pay for Soto? He will have to wonder how committed the Yankees are to winning. Why would he want to waste his time playing for a team that won’t put him in a position to win a championship?
This question seems absurd, but this isn’t your father’s Yankees anymore. This is a team that is focused on running it like a business. This isn’t the Mets, Dodgers, or San Diego Padres, and that’s an indictment of Hal Steinbrenner, who does not have that winning drive like his father, George, did.
Again, this will be moot if the Yankees show him the money. That’s a big if, though. It will come down to the Yankees making the World Series for this to be a fait accompli.
Just because they won four in a row doesn’t mean all is well. It doesn’t matter what they do in the regular season. It won’t scare other teams even if they go on a 35-5 run. The Yankees are going to have to outslug teams to win a championship. That rarely happens in the postseason. It comes down to pitching, and I don’t think they have that to win it all.
The beauty of this is that we are going to find out. But I think it will come down to the Yankees’ postseason performance.
