College football expansion and contraction are far from done.
Per my references at the end of this article, the experts correctly predicted where Colorado, Arizona, ASU, Oregon, and Washington would land; the same outcome was predicted for SMU, Cal, and Stanford. The first three odds were published before the implosion of the PAC-12 in August 2023, and the SEC numbers are from last July.
UConn football (photo courtesy Bleacher Report)
A domino effect will play out. After UConn, the Big 12 will want San Diego State after the Mountain West TV deal expires (2026), bringing that league to 18 by 2031. Notre Dame and North Carolina will join the Big Ten. Once the ACC bubble bursts, other power players will undoubtedly leave in droves. Previously, I stated that Clemson and FSU would head to the SEC, and joining them would be Virginia and Miami.
But what about the issue of antitrust legislation? Once the Big 10 and SEC reach 20 apiece, they may split off entirely and become NFL 2.0. They’d then be able to compete with the NFL regularly, with an expanded 14-team playoff having a Thursday, Friday, and Monday night game in the first round, sandwiching a triple header on the traditional Saturday.
That is a stark possibility, and it’s why the current format of 12 teams will likely stay intact through the decade’s end. The expansion would only favor the SEC and Big 10 more than they currently do. The House settlement, which increases player rosters on scholarship to exactly 100 players, makes for a smoother ride from this point forward. Still, the revenue gap will only grow exponentially over the coming years.
Let’s say, for now, the Power 2 doesn’t break off, and expansion merely goes on down the line. Based on the numbers, the Big 12 would look to Memphis and Louisville (another ACC defector). The ACC would be stuck in a mess.
OSU and WSU (graphic courtesy Reddit)
Then, will Oregon State and Washington State join the Mountain West in 2026? Even if they do, both would jump at the opportunity to join even a decimated ACC. However, to remain a superconference with 16 teams, the ACC would have to dip into the Group of Five collection and take Rice, Tulane, and USF. If that happens, the league would cease to be the Atlantic Coast Conference.
The main issue will be if the Big Ten and SEC stay in the NCAA or break away. A 40-team subdivision with two conferences and a 14-team playoff would be NFL 2.0, but the TV executives and algorithms seem to desire that anyway. The ACC and Big 12, as well as the NCAA, will fight this tooth and nail for years, if necessary.
I hate to say it, but the courts and the federal government will most likely decide the fate of college football.
God help us all.
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EDITOR’S NOTE: The author based his analysis on various sources, including
Next Big 12 Expansion Team Odds: Arizona, Utah, or UConn Next?
Next ACC Expansion Team Odds: West Coast Is Leading The Race
Where Should The Big Ten Expand Next? We Crunched The Numbers
Next Big Ten Expansion Team Odds: 33% Chance Ducks Migrate To Big Ten
Next SEC Expansion Team Odds: UNC, FSU, Clemson Favorites
