Don’t be surprised if an announcement comes over the summer break.
Despite signing a new two-year Red Bull contract two months ago, Sergio Perez could soon be dropped from the team, and it could come as early as this week. A 7th-place finish in the Belgium Grand Prix continued a recent run of poor performances from Perez. Red Bull needs a competitive driver in the second seat to retain the Constructors Championship.
Sergio Perez’s tenuous position in the Red Bull Racing team has increased over recent races as the Mexican failed to meet the team’s expectations and the car’s capabilities. With the mid-season summer break now following the conclusion of the Belgium Grand Prix, it seems the perfect time to make a change.
Perez certainly did his chances of staying in Formula One no favours with his performance in Belgium. He qualified well at Spa, which was a surprise positive as this has been the cause of most of his problems in recent races. However, Perez failed to make it out of the first round of qualifying at both the British and Hungarian Grand Prix due to crashes caused by his mistakes.
Spa was the first time since the Miami Grand Prix in May that Perez had qualified higher than 8th, the minimum position expected considering the top four teams carry such a significant advantage over the rest of the grid.
Perez qualified in 3rd place for the Belgium Grand Prix, which became 2nd following a 10-place grid penalty for his teammate Max Verstappen. With only Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc ahead of him and the Red Bull car having a significant pace and performance advantage over Ferrari, it was the perfect chance for Perez to claim a much-needed and potentially career-saving victory.
However, Perez only went backward during the Grand Prix, taking the chequered flag in 8th place, which became 7th after George Russell’s disqualification. There can be no excuse for Perez dropping from 2nd on the grid to the back of the drivers in the top four teams during a race where there were no mitigating circumstances for such a drop. This failure can only be attributed to Perez not being good enough to meet the expectations and capabilities of a top Formula One car and driver.
The reason Red Bull will be so keen to make a change in driver mid-season is McLaren are rapidly closing into their lead in the Constructors Championship. The gap is now down to 42 points, but it was as high as 114 points after the Emiliga Romagna Grand Prix at the end of May. Since the Canadian Grand Prix six races ago, McLaren and Mercedes have outscored Red Bull in the Constructors Championship despite Max Verstappen continuing to maintain his lead in the Drivers Championship.
Red Bull faces the genuine prospect of losing their Constructors Championship because they only have one driver scoring significant points for the team. In contrast, McLaren and Mercedes have their drivers challenging at the front. Since Canada, Lewis Hamilton twice, George Russell, and Oscar Piastri have won a Grand Prix, and Lando Norris has finished on the podium at four of the six races. Max Verstappen won two Grand Prix in this period, but Perez, in the 2nd Red Bull, failed to finish higher than 7th and could not score any points in two of the six Grand Prix.
It has become clear that Red Bull has nothing to lose by changing Sergio Perez. As the top four teams have such a significant advantage over the rest of the grid, barring any reliability or other issues, 8th is the lowest that Red Bull should finish, and this is all Perez is managing to achieve most races, which means that whoever comes into the 2nd Red Bull car cannot do any worse.
Red Bull has a unique advantage over all other Formula One teams in that they have a wide range of drivers available to choose from if they decide to change. That is because they have a second team competing in Formula One, the RB team. Although officially an independent team, RB is ultimately run by the Red Bull Racing management team. That means Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner has the final say on the drivers for both teams.
If Red Bull decides to replace Perez, it could easily promote Daniel Ricciardo or Yuki Tsunoda from the RB team. Either way, Red Bull would promote a driver with modern Formula One experience who is fully integrated into the current season and has experience on the upcoming circuits. No “bedding-in” period would be required.
If Ricciardo or Tsunoda is promoted to the main Red Bull team, then Red Bull junior driver Liam Lawson will be ready and waiting to take their place on the RB team. Lawson impressed last season when stepping in for Daniel Ricciardo when the Australian was injured, and many observers felt that Lawson was unlucky not to have been given a full-time Formula One drive for the 2024 season.
Sergio Perez is a very likable driver who has had many memorable moments during his career. However, top-level sport is a ruthless business. Perez is not performing to the required standard, and Red Bull has nothing to lose by replacing him.
