With the Belichick era over, will 2024 bring a turnaround, more of the same, or something in between?
The New England Patriots parted ways with legendary coach Bill Belichick after a dismal 4-13 season. The 2024 season marks the beginning of a new era, with a top-three draft pick and a fresh quarterback in tow. However, with one of the league’s weakest offenses, expectations remain low. Can the Patriots surpass this low bar, or will they continue to struggle without Belichick’s leadership?
Why New England Could Win Over 4.5 Games
The past few years have been pretty brutal for the Patriots offense, with former players speaking out about how poorly things had been run during their time with the team. Fortunately, things should be different in 2024 for a variety of reasons. From the top down, the organization is starting fresh, bringing in Pats legend Jerod Mayo as the successor to Belichick as head coach and Alex Van Pelt as the new offensive coordinator. They’ll be tasked with turning around an offense that tied for the fewest points (236) in the league last year while compiling the third-fewest total yards (4,696).
An optimist would say there’s nowhere for the offense to go but up. For those interested in NFL betting, this potential for offensive improvement combined with a strong defense might present an appealing opportunity to bet on New England, surpassing the 4.5-win mark.
Bringing in journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett could help establish normalcy in the quarterback room after the past few tumultuous seasons. Still, third-overall pick Drake Maye is the biggest reason for optimism. Maye threw for 7,929 yards, 62 touchdowns, and just 16 interceptions in his two seasons as a starter in college while adding 1,147 rushing yards and an additional 16 scores on the ground. With fellow rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker bolstering a depleted receiver corps, the Patriots offense could take a pretty solid step forward in 2024.
The team’s massive offensive struggles masked how good its defense was last year. No team in the league gave its opponents a better average starting field position than the Pats did, yet its defense allowed its foes to score on the fourth-lowest percentage of those drives in the NFL (31.5%). That performance looks even better when we factor in the Week 4 losses of top pass-rusher Matt Judon and first-round pick cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
The core of that strong defense will be returning for the upcoming season, and there should be reasonably high expectations of another great year under Mayo’s guidance. The Pats mustered up four wins last year with arguably the worst offense in the league. If their offense can take even a baby step forward, that could be enough in combination with their elite defense to get them over the five-win line here.
Why New England Could Win Under 4.5 Games
Despite their efforts to revamp the offense, the Patriots might still struggle to break the 4.5-win mark this season. The addition of Jacoby Brissett as a potential starting quarterback provides a stabilizing presence; however, his career record of 18-30 and a modest 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt don’t inspire high confidence. If rookie Drake Maye isn’t ready to take the reins immediately, New England could see a lot of Brissett, which may not be enough to ignite the offense.
The receiving corps remains a significant question mark. Ja’Lynn Polk, the second-best receiver for the Washington Huskies, and fourth-round pick Javon Baker are now in the spotlight. Polk’s leap from college to potentially becoming the Patriots’ WR1 is daunting. Competing alongside them are uninspiring options like gadget receiver Demario Douglas, slot receiver Kendrick Bourne, returning from an ACL injury, and career WR3 K.J. Osborn. There’s even a possibility that running back Rhamondre Stevenson will end up as one of the team’s leading receivers, indicating inadequate progress from last year.
The Patriots also face one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this season. Sharp Football ranks their schedule as the second-hardest. They’ll be up against a competitive AFC East and the formidable NFC West with no apparent easy wins.
Moreover, with Bill Belichick’s departure, the team lost a strategic mastermind who often turned underdog scenarios into surprise wins. Jerod Mayo, while promising, is untested as a head coach and inherits an underwhelming roster. Even if key players like Maye and Polk show potential and the defense remains solid, the Patriots could still end the season with four or fewer wins, given their challenges.
