Lower Mid-Majors That Might Surprise This Week

Here is my annual installment of assessments/picks for the opening round of March Madness.

Madness! That’s what it is, confirmed by the results of Conference Championship Week.

–Surprise teams won five of the six Power Conference tournaments: NC State won the ACC, not UNC or Duke; Auburn won the SEC, not UK or Bama; Oregon won the PAC-12, not Arizona; and Illinois won the Big Ten, not Purdue.

–Only one team from last year’s Final Four won its conference tournament: UConn (Big East). FAU (American) and San Diego State (Mountain West) did not, and Miami, FL’s situation was far worse. The U finished 15-17 and ended the year on a ten-game losing streak.

–Houston, the nation’s #1 team (Week 19 poll), lost to Iowa State by the largest margin (28 points) of any #1 team in any major college game played since 1968.

I’ve followed that possibility on these pages since 2014 when the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles—a school many fans didn’t know existed—made a historic run to the Sweet 16. FGCU won’t do that this year (11-18), and neither will other giant-killer teams over the years, including Fairleigh Dickinson (13-17), Maryland Baltimore County (10-21), and Furman (15-15).

But another Cinderella will, Saint Peter’s, a squad that Leslie Monteiro has followed at TSC. The Peacocks (19-13, #194 in the NCAA March 15 NET rankings) beat Fairfield on Saturday to win the MAAC postseason tournament. To get there, SPU knocked off regular-season champ Quinnipiac, a team that had beaten the Peacocks in Jersey City less than a week earlier. The Peacocks will be forever remembered for what they did in March Madness 2022.

My Analysis

Building on my first edition of 2024 mid-major picks published a few weeks ago, I’ve reanalyzed 20+ lower mid-major leagues, and here’s my best thinking about which teams could surprise this week. Translated, that means this: teams that could win at least one game between Tuesday and Sunday.

The info below includes team records, conference affiliations, NCAA NET rankings (standing among all 362 D-1 NCAA teams as of March 15), player/team stats, and (of course) my commentary.

NOTE: Teams are listed in order (highest to lowest) of NCAA NET ranking as of 3/15. The most current NCAA NET rankings are here. Find an explanation of the NCAA NET rankings here.

Saint Mary’s (West Coast Conference) 26-7, #15 NET. The Gaels beat Gonzaga two out of three times this year and won both the regular—and postseason WCC titles. However, SMC struggled against other major teams, including San Diego State, Xavier, and Utah. 

Drake (Missouri Valley), 28-6, #47 NET. Ditto for Drake, a consistently good team in a competitive conference that hasn’t played a high-level major. But it did beat a strong Indiana State team (#29 NET) twice, including in the tournament final.  

Grand Canyon (WAC), 29-4, #51 NET. GCU has become the superior team in the Western Athletic League now that New Mexico State has transitioned to Conference USA. This team can upset you, as San Diego State discovered in December and South Carolina almost experienced in November. Watch Tyon Grant-Foster, a 20-point-per-game scorer.

James Madison (Sun Belt), 31-3, #53 NET. JMU upset Michigan State in the season opener in East Lansing. This is a team that could inflict damage this week. Only weakness is similar to other mid-majors — playing few majors during the regular season.

McNeese (Southland), 30-3, #56 NET. Dangerous. Period. The Cowboys beat VCU, UAB, Southern Miss, and Michigan. Experienced guard Shada Wells drives this team (18 ppg).

Samford (Southern), 29-5, #75 NET. Samford plays in the historic Southern Conference, once home to many SEC and ACC teams, as well as to many memorable names in basketball history, such as Jerry West (WVU), Stephen Curry (Davidson), and Furman’s Frank Selvy, who scored 100 points in a game in 1954. Returning to now, this week’s game will be the biggest contest since the season opener when the Bulldogs were battered by a Purdue team that more than doubled the score on the outclassed Alabamians. Another loss to VCU followed just four days later. Since then, Samford has lost only three times (Furman, Mercer, Wofford) and (at one point) went on a 17-game winning streak. (See why SU is on the list?). If they win #30 this week, it will be because of the straw that stirs the drink, 6′ 9″ Australian Achor Achor (no misprint). He’s the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, and he will have to come up big.

Yale (Ivy), 22-9, #83 NET. The Eli barely beat 13-18 Brown in the championship game to win the four-team conference tournament. Yale has played several big-time schools (e.g., Gonzaga and Kansas), and I think they have enough firepower and tenacity to stay with a team. The question is, for how long? I think they’ll either get blown out or eke out a win in Round One.

Charleston (Coastal) 27-7, #97 NET. Is this a spreading disease? The Cougars are the class of the Coastal, but they haven’t beaten any teams of note, losing along the way to Vermont, Wyoming, and FAU.

Vermont (America East), 28-6, #102 NET. The power team in the America East is an almost sure-winner at home each year, but a weak conference and overall schedule hurt the Catamounts when it comes to playing in March. Yet, I remember that big March win against Syracuse in 2005.

Morehead State (Ohio Valley), 26-8, #105 NET. Eagles have trouble winning away from home, but they’ve played arguably the most challenging non-conference schedule of any mid-major, including Alabama, Purdue, Penn State, and Indiana (almost beating the Hoosiers). Riley Minix is a fun player to watch (55% FG%, 20+ PPG, nearly 10 RPG, and 2+ APG).

Colgate (Patriot), 25-9, #125 NET. I like the Red Raiders, but my affection is more due to sentimentality than analysis–and I say that even after the team went on a 10+-game mid-season winning streak. Yes, CU almost beat Syracuse there, but it also got blown out by Illinois and Arizona—the type of teams they will likely face this week. It’s a fun team to watch, but can this team get a big win? I think that will depend on whether big-man Keegan Record plays big and if guard Braeden Smith can get hot (only 40% FG percentage on the year).

Oakland (Horizon), 23-11, #126 NET. Enduring response: Really? (…reaction when somebody learns that Oakland Univesity is situated near Detroit, MI, in Oakland County, not Oakland, CA). No matter where it’s located, the Golden Grizzlies played a tough schedule, including Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, Drake, Xavier, and Dayton (1-5, with the lone win vs. Dayton). Trey Townsend leads the team, and I do mean lead–in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Depending on the match-up(s) this week, this team can win a game (even two).

South Dakota State (Summit), 22-12, #135 NET. Shades of the great Mike Daum? William Kyle is good, but not that good. Let’s hope he has a solid game and that Zeke Mayo (the Jackrabbits’ leading scorer at nearly 20 PPG) goes boom. I like balance best about SDSU, with four players averaging in double figures in points. Those same players (Easley and Appel with the aforementioned Kyle and Mayo) share the rebounding load. I keep hoping for a breakthrough win for this program. Will it be this year? That depends on the bracket.

Longwood (Big South), 22-12, #163 NET. The nation knows Longwood because of athletics, a school that has morphed from a women’s institute to a normal school (teachers college) to a comprehensive college and university. Beating St. Bonaventure to begin the year was a big thing, and winning the conference tournament after posting a 6-10 regular season record was even bigger. (I would have bet on either High Point or the University of North Carolina, Ashville, and said as much in my earlier article). So much for predicting. The record shows that the Lancers beat High Point in the semis and then knocked off UNCA to wear the tourney crown. Job well done! Balance is the key for this team, which was led by various scorers in conference tournament games–Walyn Napper, Szymon Zapala, and Michael Christmas. In my book, a team that shouldn’t be here but is here … that’s a dangerous team.

Saint Peter’s (MAAC), 19-13, #194 NET. I love Corey Washington! Heck, with what I say. The Peacocks love CW because they need him to win. The team treaded water when he was out with an injury and looked much better when he returned. Then, inexplicably, they lost consecutive games when the regular-season MAAC title was on the line. In the tournament championship game, just when you thought SPU had the game in the bag, they didn’t. The unraveling began when Washington was fouled on a three…and then missed every free throw…and the misses came from the same guy who made it possible for Saint Peter’s to be in the position to win. Go figure? Yes, the Peacocks cause heart fluttering, and I don’t expect that to change in the tournament. Washington will need help from Latrell Reid, Roy Clarke, Mouhamed Sow, and others to win this week.

Montana State (Big Sky), 17-17, #208 NET. This .500 team in both the conference and the season overall is on a roll, having won four straight, including vanquishing rival Montana (a very good team) in the tournament final. The team will go as far as Robert Ford takes them because he leads the team in PPG, RPG, and SPG.

Stetson (A-SUN), 22-12, #209 NET. Yes, Stetson, as in hats. James B. Stetson invested heavily in the school, which began as DeLand Academy. Stetson’s nickname (it took a long time to come up with it) is Hatters. Stetson plays in the Atlantic Sun Conference, which has an actively changing roster of schools. I thought a conference newcomer, Eastern Kentucky (joining the A-Sun after EKU got pissed at the Ohio Valley Conference), would take the crown this year after winning the regular-season championship. But the Colonels couldn’t get out of the tourney quarterfinals. Advantage Stetson. Jalen Blackmon (22 PPG) will need to get hot for the Hatters to advance, and he’ll need help even if he does. Belgium’s Aubin Gateretse, the team’s leading rebounder, is the prime support player.

This Week’s Match-Ups

Soapbox time: How could the Committee keep Indiana State out of the field?! With a #29 NET, the Sycamores are the best ISU team since Larry Bird’s 1979 Final Four club. Now that I have that off my chest, here are my picks, which are grouped into four categories

TRENDY PICKS (meaning … I won’t be the only one making these calls)

BEWARE! (meaning … Don’t you dare sleep on any of these teams!)

NOT UNIMAGINABLE (meaning … The impossible is possible), and

NOT A CHANCE (meaning … no explanation is necessary).

NOTE: Spread and percentage win chances, courtesy of ESPN.

TRENDY PICKS

Wednesday, Montana State-Grambling, MSU -3.5, 49% chance of winning. Two mid-major teams here, and MSU should win.

Thursday, McNeese-Gonzaga. GU -6.5, 76% chance of winning. I’m picking McNeese to win outright; the Cowboys are that good.

Thursday, Drake vs. Washington State. DU -1.5, 48% chance of winning. Drake is the Vegas pick in this one, and I can see why. They are good! Cougars aren’t veterans in this environment, and the Bulldogs are. Go with the Dogs.

Friday, Charleston-Alabama. Bama -9.5, 90% chance of winning. Bama seems to have lost its mojo, and CoC will come into this game flying. If they can sustain early energy and play good defense, the -9.5 may not hold up. I’m not convinced Charleston will win, but I see this as a competitive contest.

Friday, James Madison-Wisconsin. UW -5.5, 66% chance of winning. This game is an excellent example of the sometimes razor-thin difference between power and non-power schools. Wisconsin can surprise you, and I could be surprised with this pick. I’m picking the Monarchs to come away with an outright win.

Friday, Grand Canyon-St. Mary’s. SMC -5.5, 77% chance of winning. I don’t like it when two picks play each other in the first round. SMC is the mid-majors top dog regarding the NET rankings, while GCU is nationally unknown, albeit coached by a name coach, one of the Drew boys. SMC has loads of experience in the Big Dance (third consecutive appearance), but my gut says they’ll get ambushed this year.  

BEWARE!

Thursday, Samford-Kansas. KU -7.5. 84% chance of winning. KU is like the UK: shaky and unpredictable. Samford is like McNeese, an excellent team many fans have never heard of. At this point, KU is capable of losing to anybody. Sealegs don’t seem to be there, and the -7.5 Vegas spread doesn’t elicit confidence. I’m 50/50 on Samford getting the outright win.

Thursday, Saint Peter’s-Tennessee. UT -21.5, 98% chance of winning. I’ll be on the edge of my seat rooting for the Peacocks and Cory Washington. IF SPU’s defense can come through, this game won’t end in a 22-point spread. It could be a nail-biter for the Vols, with either team winning at or near the buzzer … or the Peacocks will get blown out. 

NOT UNIMAGINABLE

Thursday, Morehead State-Illinois. UI -12.5, 90% chance of winning. I think MSU will scare the Illini. I won’t make the call for an outside win, but I think it may be challenging for Illinois to cover a spread that (at least on paper) should be much wider than -12.5 and more like the spread in the SDSU-ISU game.

Thursday, Oakland-Kentucky. UK -13.5, 90% chance of winning. Ditto my call of MSU-Ill–on steroids–because I don’t trust the UK these days, and I am flabbergasted by how many analysts are picking UK as a Final Four team.

Thursday, South Dakota State-Iowa State. ISU -16.5, 97% chance of winning. While this is not the best team the Jackrabbits have fielded recently, I still have memories (as an alumnus) of ISU stumbling against 15-seed Hampton in the 2001 Big Dance. ISU is the superior team, but it’s not immune to stumbling a bit coming out of the gate. I think this game will be closer than the nearly 17-point spread.

Friday, Colgate-Baylor. BU -13.5, 91% chance of winning. BU has had bad games (e.g., vs. Michigan State), and Colgate will be sky-high for this game. I don’t think Colgate will win, but they could (not will ) keep Baylor from covering. Guard play will determine the difference (meaning CU needs to hit 3s).

Friday, Vermont-Duke. Duke -11.5, 90% chance of winning. Big stage, big time for the Catamounts. Duke is unpredictable and often looks vulnerable. I’m not sure UVM will win in the end, but I think there’s a good chance they’ll have a chance at the end. Duke will have to work for a win.

NOT A CHANCE

Friday, Stetson-UConn. UConn -26.5, 99% chance of winning. What a lousy draw for the Hatters! UConn has too much size, speed, ability, and experience. Huskies. Period. 

Friday, Yale-Auburn. Auburn -12.5, 90% of winning. What UConn has too much of, Auburn has too. Yale’s discipline will likely keep things close for a while, but I look for the Tigers to overpower the Eli in the second half. (I’m worried this may be my worst call of the week.)

Friday, Longwood-Houston. UH -24.5, 99% chance of winning. The Cougars are smarting from the ISU embarrassment. They will take out their angst against LU.