Hurray for Duquesne, Yale, Oakland, Grand Canyon, and James Madison.
It’s risky because picking lower mid-majors to claim victories over major teams is like wagering on 40-1 thoroughbreds to win Triple Crown races. But it’s fun and something I do annually.
How did I do this year? The outcome was similar to prior seasons, with several hits and misses. But there was a new wrinkle this year, something I hadn’t experienced—a lower mid-major winner immediately losing the public relations contest with how it responded after the win. More on why at the end of this piece. First, here are the highlights from the Play-In and Round One action.
Misses
NOTE: Text in italics from my pre-tournament article.
Montana State (Big Sky), 17-17, #208 NET, as of March 15. This .500 team in both the conference and the season overall is on a roll, having won four straight, including vanquishing rival Montana (a very good team) in the tournament final. The team will go as far as Robert Ford takes them because he leads the team in PPG, RPG, and SPG. Wednesday, Montana State-Grambling, MSU -3.5, 49% chance of winning. Two mid-major teams here, and MSU should win. PERFORMANCE: Credit Grambling. Down by nine at the half, GU won by seven in OT. Ford did his part with 26 points on 70% shooting, six rebounds, and four assists.
Drake (Missouri Valley), 28-6, #47 NET. This consistently good team in a competitive conference hasn’t played a high-level major, but it beat a strong Indiana State team (#29 NET) twice, including in the tournament final. Thursday, Drake vs. Washington State. DU -1.5, 48% chance of winning. Drake is the Vegas pick in this one, and I can see why. They are good! Cougars aren’t veterans in this environment, and the Bulldogs are. Go with the Dogs. PERFORMANCE: Drake went to the dogs in this one, uncharacteristically fumbling and bumbling down the stretch when it had a chance to win. Ahead by a point with 2:15 left, mostly uncaused turnovers killed DU’s chances. A surprisingly good Cougars team won by five.
McNeese (Southland), 30-3, #56 NET. Dangerous. Period. The Cowboys beat VCU, UAB, Southern Miss, and Michigan. Experienced guard Shada Wells drives this team (18 ppg). Thursday, McNeese-Gonzaga. GU -6.5, 76% chance of winning. I’m picking McNeese to win outright; the Cowboys are that good. PERFORMANCE: McNeese looked outmatched from the get-go, down 23 points at the half, and Wells had a bad game (24% shooting on 25 shots). I’m unsure if Gonzaga is that good or if McNeese was playing in an unaccustomed land. Given how the Zags played in that game and over the weekend, it’s likely more a matter of Gonzaga’s play (a team that didn’t have its accustomed cache going into this tournament). Still, the Cowboys played like strangers in a strange land, which it was and didn’t overcome.
Straddled the Line
Morehead State (Ohio Valley), 26-8, #105 NET. Eagles have trouble winning away from home, but they’ve played arguably the most challenging non-conference schedule of any mid-major, including Alabama, Purdue, Penn State, and Indiana (almost beating the Hoosiers). Riley Minix is a fun player to watch (55% FG%, 20+ PPG, nearly 10 RPG, and 2+ APG). Thursday, Morehead State-Illinois. UI -12.5, 90% chance of winning. I think MSU will scare the Illini. I won’t make the call for an outside win, but I think it may be challenging for Illinois to cover a spread that should be much wider than -12.5. PERFORMANCE: MSU did scare the Illini, leading by one in the second half with about 14 minutes left, but then ran out of gas. Illinois went on to win by 16 points. Don’t blame Minix, who finished with 27 points.
Saint Peter’s (MAAC), 19-13, #194 NET. I love Corey Washington! The team treaded water when he was out with an injury and looked much better when he returned. Washington will need help from Latrell Reid, Roy Clarke, Mouhamed Sow, and others to win this week. Thursday, Saint Peter’s-Tennessee. UT -21.5, 98% chance of winning. IF SPU’s defense can come through, this game won’t end in a 22-point spread. It could be a nail-biter for the Vols, with either team winning at or near the buzzer … or the Peacocks will get blown out. PERFORMANCE: I hedged my bet on this one, writing the Peacocks could get blown out…and they were. The Vols got out to a quick lead and coasted from there, doubling the score on SPU a good share of the night and eventually winning by 34 points. UT focused on Washington and shut him down hard. The MAAC tournament MVP had only two points on the night, hitting one of nine shots.
Yale (Ivy), 22-9, #83 NET. Yale played several big-time schools (e.g., Gonzaga and Kansas), and I think they have enough firepower and tenacity to stay with a team. The question is, for how long? I think they’ll either get blown out or eke out a win in Round One. Friday, Yale-Auburn. Auburn -12.5, 90% of winning. Yale’s discipline will likely keep things close for a while, but I look for the Tigers to overpower the Eli in the second half. (I’m worried this may be my worst call of the week.) PERFORMANCE: I took a double pause on this one: “either blown out or eke out a win,” and (after picking the Tigers to win) (“this may be my worst call of the week”). It was my worst call of the week. Yale looked more like you would have expected Auburn to look down the stretch. In the end, Yale added its name to the long list of underdogs that prevailed against a major team.
Samford (Southern), 29-5, #75 NET. A Purdue team battered the Bulldogs in the season opener, and another loss to VCU followed just four days later. But since then, Samford has lost only three times (to Furman, Mercer, and Wofford) and (at one point) went on a 17-game winning streak. If they win #30 this week, it will be because of the straw that stirs the drink, 6′ 9″ Australian Achor Achor (no misprint). He’s the team’s leading scorer and rebounder and must come up big. Thursday, Samford-Kansas. KU -7.5. 84% chance of winning. KU is like Kentucky: shaky and unpredictable. Samford is like McNeese, an excellent team many fans have never heard of. KU can lose to anybody at this point, and the -7.5 Vegas spread doesn’t elicit confidence. I’m 50/50 on Samford getting the outright win. PERFORMANCE: KU won, but a national TV audience saw a phantom foul call at the end on SU’s A.J. Staton-McCoy that turned out to be the difference-maker. The Jayhawks ended up winning by 4 points. As expected, Achor Achor came through with 23 points.
Easy Picks Because of the Match-Ups
Stetson (A-SUN), 22-12, #209 NET. Jalen Blackmon (22 PPG) will need to get hot for the Hatters to advance, and he’ll need help even if he does. Belgium’s Aubin Gateretse, the team’s leading rebounder, is the prime support player. Friday, Stetson-UConn. UConn -26.5, 99% chance of winning. What a lousy draw for the Hatters! UConn has too much size, speed, ability, and experience. Huskies. Period. PERFORMANCE: UConn won by 39 points.
Longwood (Big South), 22-12, #163 NET. Balance is the key for this team, led by various scorers in conference tournament games–Walyn Napper, Szymon Zapala, and Michael Christmas. In my book, a team that shouldn’t be here but is here … that’s a dangerous team. Friday, Longwood-Houston. UH -24.5, 99% chance of winning. The Cougars are smarting from the ISU embarrassment. They will take out their angst against LU. PERFORMANCE: Houston rebounded in a big way, winning by 40 points.
Hits
In a rare mid-major vs. mid-major match-up… Saint Mary’s (West Coast Conference) 26-7, #15 NET. The Gaels beat Gonzaga two out of three times this year and won both the regular—and postseason WCC titles. However, SMC struggled against other major teams, including San Diego State, Xavier, and Utah. Grand Canyon (WAC), 29-4, #51 NET. GCU has become the superior team in the Western Athletic League now that New Mexico State has transitioned to Conference USA. This team can upset you, as San Diego State discovered in December, and South Carolina almost experienced it in November. Watch Tyon Grant-Foster, a 20-point-per-game scorer. Friday, Grand Canyon-St. Mary’s. SMC -5.5, 77% chance of winning. SMC is the mid-majors top dog regarding the NET rankings, while GCU is nationally unknown, albeit coached by a name coach, one of the Drew boys. SMC has loads of experience in the Big Dance (third consecutive appearance), but my gut says they’ll get ambushed this year. PERFORMANCE: The Antelopes had the advantage in this one as Grant-Foster came through with 22 points on 6/13 shooting. GCU cruised in the second half, winning by 11 points.
James Madison (Sun Belt), 31-3, #53 NET. JMU upset Michigan State in the season opener in East Lansing. This team could inflict damage this week. Its only weakness is like other mid-majors: playing few majors during the regular season. Friday, James Madison-Wisconsin. UW -5.5, 66% chance of winning. This game is an excellent example of the sometimes razor-thin difference between power and non-power schools. I’m picking the Monarchs to come away with an outright win. PERFORMANCE: Up by 13 at the half, JMU weathered a modest UW second-half surge to win by 9 points and notch its second win of the year against Big Ten competition.
Oakland (Horizon), 23-11, #126 NET. The Golden Grizzlies played a tough schedule that included Ohio State, Michigan State, and Illinois. Trey Townsend leads the team, and I do mean lead–in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Depending on the match-up(s) this week, this team can win a game (even two). Thursday, Oakland-Kentucky. UK -13.5, 90% chance of winning. I don’t trust Kentucky these days, and I am astonished by how many analysts are picking them as a Final Four team. PERFORMANCE: In a word, Kentucky looked confused and anything like a 3-seed, while Oakland looked confident, even on a night when Townsend wasn’t the team leader. Instead, a 13-point-a-game scorer, Jack Gohlke, hit ten 3-pointers, and OU won by 4 points.
Oakland Got a Huge Win, Then Earned a Big Boo
Be more like Yale, Oakland. Yale knows its place in history: David (Yale) beat Goliath (Auburn), playing with self-described “guts and grit” to beat heavily favored Auburn. Oakland? The Golden Grizzlies did the same on the court. Then OU played make-believe soon after the final whistle. A player remarked, “We are not Cinderella.” The coach said, “We are not pretenders.”
Guess what? You are both, and you should happily embrace both with pride. Why?
First, OU is among many teams that have seemingly come out of nowhere to vanquish a heavily favored major team in the Big Dance. Second, contending that the Golden Grizzlies are somehow in the class of the team you upset … that’s nonsense. Here’s why.
What can be concluded from that analysis? It’s not dissimilar from the profile Saint Peter’s had in 2022 when the Peacocks beat the very same Kentucky, then Purdue, in the Big Dance. That season, SPU finished 22-12 overall and was 19-11 (14 MAAC conference wins) going into the NCAA tournament, including 0-3 against competitive out-of-conference teams, VCU, St. John’s, and Providence. Bottom line? OU, like SPU, is an example of WHY the tournament is called March MADNESS.
