I went 11-5 (69%) In Week 17 to bring my season mark to 159-97 (62%). This week, I present my picks division by division. It makes sense to do so because only intradivision games are played during Week 18 and playoff opportunities/positioning are on the line in both conferences.
NOTE: Games will be played on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted. This article was published initially on Tuesday, January 2.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore 26, Pittsburgh 17 (Saturday afternoon) – Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, with 160 regular-season wins under his belt, has a fine line to walk here: rest or rust? Rest has turned into rust for this team in the past, as first-round playoff byes haven’t quite worked out. I think Harbaugh will straddle the line this time, playing starters for a half as if it were a preseason game. That will keep his players sharp, and home fans desperately want a win over the Steelers … under any circumstances. By all rights, the Ravens should have won the earlier meeting in Pittsburgh, but eight dropped passes–including three that would have gone for touchdowns–doomed them. That said, the Steelers have put together yet another winning season (their 20th straight, second-longest streak ever) and are coming off a season-best 468-yard effort in Seattle. It should be a good game, and even though I don’t pay much attention to the spread, I see that Vegas likes the Steelers (-4.5 as of Tuesday).
Cincinnati 30, Cleveland 16 – Last week, I ventured out of my comfort zone by picking Cleveland to win a game, and the Browns won. But it still felt horrible, so I’m returning to my happy place and taking the Bengals here. The so-called “Battle of Ohio” is a very big deal to the two fan bases there, and with Cincinnati at home, they’d like to leave a marker for next year by throwing a monkey wrench at the playoff-bound Browns. Sure, Joe Flacco has resurrected Cleveland’s hopes with 13 touchdown passes, but he has also thrown eight interceptions in five games as a starter. He has been good but not perfect. Plus, Cleveland’s defense has been awful on the road. (Keep that in mind for the playoffs.)
AFC EAST
Buffalo 34, Miami 24 (Sunday night) – Two of the Dolphins’ most potent offensive weapons, Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle, were hurt in Baltimore last week. Then, Tua Tagovailoa and Bradley Chubb followed them off the field. The Ravens’ adjustments to the Dolphins’ speed made the difference. After the game’s first drive, the Dolphins did next to nothing against the Ravens’ defense. But for Buffalo, this challenge this week is the defense it will put on the field in Miami. The Bills’ D has suffered key injuries and doesn’t have Baltimore’s depth. But I believe the Bills will adjust, largely because there’s much at stake. Even after Buffalo’s topsy-turvy year, this team can win the AFC East and make the playoffs.
New England 17, New York Jets 13 – Two original American Football League franchises have given the AFL and NFL memorable moments. But look at these teams now; they are shells of their former selves. And this may be Belichick’s last stand in Foxborough. Whether it is or not, the team will go to the mat for him and win.
AFC SOUTH
Houston 27, Indianapolis 24 (Saturday night) – The Colts helped themselves last week with a home win over a surging Raiders team. That win set up a titanic home clash against the Texans to wrap up the regular season. Credit both starting QBs, too. If not for Gardner Minshew and C.J. Stroud, this week wouldn’t be happening. I’ll take the young gun over the journeyman, and if I’m right, then Houston will take second place in the AFC South.
Jacksonville 37, Tennessee 9 – Even though Trevor Lawrence missed a game for the first time in his career, the slumping Jags had enough in the tank to shut out Carolina. Now, they get to play a Titans team that has seen Will Levis get hurt and watched Ryan Tannehill play like…well…Ryan Tannehill. The AFC South became a jumble towards the end of the year, but Jacksonville will get its fifth division win and seal another first-place finish.
AFC WEST
Las Vegas 23, Denver 16 – For one of the few times in their history, the Raiders have a rather likable aura about them, and they will go into 2024 on a high by beating Denver.
Kansas City 30, Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Whew! The Chiefs finally showed up, making big plays at the right times to outlast Cincinnati last week and win another division crown. They can kick back on the West Coast this week and win the regular season finale.
NFC EAST
Dallas 45, Washington 0 – This is a big game for the Cowboys because they can nail down the division with a win, keeping in mind what happened when Dallas stubbed its toe the last time there was in a regular-season-closing situation at FedEx Field. But Dallas has swept Washington at least 20 times since these two started playing twice a year, and I see absolutely no reason to think it won’t happen again.
New York Giants 24, Philadelphia 20 – I’ve been in denial for the past month, believing that the Eagles–losers of four of five since a 10-1 start–would always find a way to pull out games, especially against inferior opposition. But losing? At home? To the Cardinals? That does it, so I won’t even take the stumbling Birds against another inferior opponent, the Giants–even with much at stake for Philadelphia and also for a division that hasn’t had a repeat champion in 20 years. The Giants gave their partisans a supreme effort in last week’s loss to the Rams, and I expect that effort to continue this week.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay 19, Chicago 16 – The NFL’s oldest archrivalry is an appealing game to end the year. The Bears are not a part of the playoff race but would love nothing more than to spoil the Packer party, and with Justin Fields playing at his highest level of the year, they have a good shot at doing so. That said, Green Bay pulled itself together this year, and just in the nick of time. The cheesehead-clad fans “Love” it.
Detroit 26, Minnesota 20 – The Lions are at home, playing for a possible #2 seed after an agonizing and angering one-point loss at Dallas last week. But that was last week. This week should be celebratory as the team treats its faithful fans to NFC North Division glory.
NFC SOUTH
Tampa Bay 29, Carolina 6 – The entire NFC South Division looks flatter than a Kansas prairie, and these teams are coming off unexpected losses last week. I’ll pick Tampa Bay at home because they are the better team. (Maybe Panthers owner David Tepper will get mad at me and throw a drink my way.)
New Orleans 24, Atlanta 17 – These two have developed a bit of Southern nastiness over the years. The Saints’ rollercoaster season is finishing on an uptick, and the Falcons’ isn’t; it’s just as simple as that.
NFC WEST
Seattle 25, Arizona 22 – The Cardinals deserve a ton of credit. They confronted the time-different battles and won both times — traveling to Pennsylvania twice this season to play at 10 a.m. (PT) vs. the Steelers and the Eagles. The flip side is that Arizona isn’t always good at home, and now they face the Seahawks there, a team desperate to salvage what should have been a promising campaign.
San Francisco 42, Los Angeles Rams 38 – There’s a bit of a civil war between these differently situated Californians, even when the game doesn’t have much on the line. The 49ers have locked up the top NFC playoff seed, and the Rams (to the surprise of some) have locked down a playoff berth. Still, this game will be telling. The Niners are eager to get the bad taste of that Baltimore-trashing out of their mouths, and the Rams need to show that they can perform on special teams, which has been an Achilles’ heel recently.
