Fresh off a perfect slate in the Divisional round (4-0) and an overall pick rate of 80% this postseason (8-2), here are my picks for the all-important conference championship contests.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
(3) Kansas City 25, (1) Baltimore 22 (Sunday, 3, CBS) – I can hear the Ravens fans banging on my door with pitchforks in hand and screaming at the tops of their lungs: “Joe, what gives!?” Back in August, I predicted this matchup, except I thought the game would be played in Kansas City, not Baltimore. The big question now is this: Are the Ravens the better team? Yes, I think they are, and by a good distance, too. Lamar Jackson is a big reason why. So (again) what’s up? The Ravens’ secondary has been banged up and thin all year, and even though it has covered and tackled well, it’s often the little things that make a big difference in games like this. My concern is that the secondary could be damaged just enough to be vulnerable against Patrick Mahomes. Consider that he hasn’t been sacked once this playoff season in 64 dropback plays. Indeed, Jackson and Mahomes can and have made big plays. But I feel Mahomes will make one more big play when it is most needed. His receivers aren’t dropping passes like they were earlier in the season, and the KC offense (e.g., Pacheco) is executing again just at the right time. PICK: CHIEFS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
(1) San Francisco 31, (3) Detroit 20 (Sunday, 6:30, Fox) – It’s only January, but this game has a March Madness feel. The NFC title game has been around since 1970, and the Lions are in it for just the second time (first since the 1991 season). So, what’s the college basketball connection? The Lions are like George Mason or Virginia Commonwealth, a plucky little mid-major that goes on a Cinderella run to the Final Four. The problem is that schools like those never win the big one; they lose to major programs like Duke or Kansas. In NFL terms, that major is the 49ers. Ok, you say, the ‘Niners’ haven’t won the Super Bowl in 29 years. Besides, Deebo Samuel’s injury could be serious, and Kyle Shanahan’s propensity to stay on script doesn’t allow for many adjustments. While I agree, I’ll counter with this: the 49ers are deep and physical enough to make up for shortcomings to win this game … a home game at that. So, I’m picking San Franciso to win. (However, if the hosts lose, I’ll pick up the drumbeat I started over a year and a half ago. For all the praise Shanahan gets, I believe he is somewhat of an overrated coach … and that’s something I’ve heard no one in the national media say.) PICK: 49ERS
