Joey P’s NFL Picks: Week 16

The Week 16 slate is capped by a Christmas tripleheader headlined by a prime-time national clash between Baltimore and San Francisco. I went 10-6 last week on the picking front, bringing my year-to-date mark to 62% (138-86). Wishing for a White Christmas? Me, nah. Going 14-2 (or better) would be a great holiday present. 

NOTE: Picks were published initially on Tuesday, December 19.

Thursday

Los Angeles Rams 33, New Orleans 24 – The Rams know how to put up points; ask Baltimore and Washington, among other teams. So do the Saints, but that team is looking for a bit more consistency. They seemed to find it against the Giants, but this is a step up in class for the “contenders” in the NFC South, a division so farcical that we had to put a contender’s status in quotation marks. Matthew Stafford is the better quarterback, and with Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and what should be a newly healthy tight end in Tyler Higbee, the Rams should prevail. On top of everything else, they’re at home in SoFi Stadium, a much more hospitable home venue for the Rams than it ever seemingly will be for the Chargers.

Saturday

Cincinnati 23, Pittsburgh 13 (afternoon) – Sometimes, scheduling patterns can be unfair to certain teams, but not in this case, as both teams are again playing on Saturday after wildly differing results last week. The Steelers’ lack of offense is finally catching up with them, as three straight losses have them falling down – and possibly out – of the playoff picture. At the same time, the Bengals have done an admirable job of showing their resiliency with the unheralded Jake Browning at quarterback. Cincinnati now has another set of problems with defensive tackle D.J. Reader and standout deep threat JaMarr Chase injured as well, but I’m not sure this will make a difference. At the time of year when teams are supposed to declare their January intentions, the Bengals are stepping up, and the Steelers aren’t; it’s really just that simple. Look for Mason Rudolph to start at quarterback instead of Mitch Trubisky for Pittsburgh.

Buffalo 37, Los Angeles Chargers 9 (night) – Hey, Chargers: what in the ever-loving world was THAT? No, I didn’t have you pegged as contenders this year, but you could have at least shown a little professional pride in Las Vegas last week. Instead, you laid an egg and covered the whole nest. Earlier this year, Denver gave up more points to Miami than you did to the Raiders, and the Broncos managed to pick themselves up and rebound strongly. I’ve been watching and/or covering the NFL for over a half-century, and that was the most gutless, soft display I’ve ever seen. Now, a head coach, a general manager, and an entire staff had to tell their families that things had to change drastically in their lives. Why can’t you be more like Buffalo, a team that, despite a banged-up defense, still cares, has something to play for, and is coming to your stadium ready to lay down another marker that says they’re not done yet?

Sunday

Houston 20, Cleveland 12 – My pick of the Bears over the Browns wasn’t as far-fetched as some of you suggested. But Cleveland pulled out its fifth skin-of-their-teeth win despite a ten-point halftime deficit and three Joe Flacco interceptions. The fact that Cleveland will finish with a winning record is perhaps the season’s biggest upset, for I still don’t think the team is nearly as good as its record would indicate. I’m also counting on C.J. Stroud returning for the Texans in this home game; he should make short work of the Browns and an overrated defense that has been horrible on the road all season.

New York Jets 29, Washington 11 – Ordinarily, I would say a matchup like this would be between teams with fan bases that are constantly frustrated with poor results after promising expectations. Still, Washington fans hardly seem to care at all. You can’t say the same about the intense, passionate New York partisans, who will flock to Jersey in droves to see this game between a couple of has-beens and ne’er-do-wells. Jets quarterback Zack Wilson, the object of stinging criticism all year long, has shown a pulse in the season’s second half (although he left last week’s game with a concussion). At the same time, Washington’s Sam Howell has finally looked worn down from being the league’s most-sacked quarterback, with two touchdowns and six interceptions over the last month. The Commanders also bring the league’s most sieve-like defense on the road, which spells trouble.

Seattle 34, Tennessee 19 – Maybe the Titans shouldn’t have used all that Houston Oiler stuff – uniforms, midfield logo, etc. – in last week’s home overtime loss to the Texans. This time around, the bad karma will come from simply facing a better team. Despite the recent slump, I feel Seattle can travel almost anywhere and beat anyone (except Baltimore, where it got boat-raced). The Titans aren’t getting what they usually get from an aging Derrick Henry; furthermore, quarterback Will Levis has a high-ankle sprain and might not be available.

Detroit 19, Minnesota 16 – Strangely, it’s taking until this late in the season for these venerable NFC North Division rivals to meet for the first time this year, and their annual clashes are coming in rather quick succession. Still, that bit of quirky scheduling provides a nice, dramatic storyline to a crowded NFC playoff picture and is decisive toward who will win the division. There’s no question that the Lions have been far more consistent this year, as the schizophrenic Vikings go up and down with the frequency of a pogo stick. Minnesota gets home field for the first meeting, but that doesn’t matter in this division.

Green Bay 40, Carolina 3 – Whatever are the Panthers to do? In the last few years, they’ve gotten a new-but-meddlesome owner, fired their coach, and sunk to the bottom of the league’s worst division after having already traded away next year’s first-round draft pick to Chicago, which could be the #1 selection. To add insult to injury, secondary-market tickets for their last home game were selling for – wait for it – 45 cents! All the team can do at this point is rebuild, and it seems to think it has a foundational piece in 2023 top pick Bryce Young (even though someone – okay, me – told you C.J. Stroud was better). Thanks to some savvy business moves by the city fathers, the city of Charlotte rebuilt itself rather well in the 90s; it remains to be seen whether its football team can take a cue from that. Green Bay has rebounded much more quickly from its rough start and will keep pace with the other playoff hopefuls with an easy road win here.

Indianapolis 30, Atlanta 17 – Whew, finally! We’re back to a game where I can feel comfortable picking against the Falcons, as they take to their Mercedes-Benz Stadium indoor field against a team that is better than they are (last week, even feckless Carolina was better than Atlanta). The Colts are more battle-tested against more quality opposition in the AFC South Division, while the Falcons can’t make the same claim in the murky, mediocre, middling NFC South.

Miami 31, Dallas 20 – The Dolphins have been incredible at home this year, and the Cowboys are a mediocre 3-4 on the road. On top of that, Dallas probably saw its NFC East Division hopes crushed by a physical Buffalo team last week, so it’s incumbent upon the visitors to play hard but stay healthy for the playoffs. Miami is also coming off a complete, four-quarter effort against a good Jets defense–the first team to make that claim this year–and it has to prepare for a monstrously important game at Baltimore the following week in a clash for the top AFC playoff seed. Oh, and did I mention that Tyreek Hill hasn’t even played lately and could be back for this one?

Tampa Bay 24, Jacksonville 17 – Fighting for a state championship at every level of football is important to Floridians, but with these two, it’s important to look at the bigger picture. The Jaguars were seen as one of the NFL’s elite until their bye week. Since then, Jacksonville has slumped badly, a fall assisted by injury and inconsistency; Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence has a banged-up ankle and finger, and he entered concussion protocol after the loss to Baltimore. Tampa Bay is the best of a bad lot in the woeful NFC South Division, but quarterback Baker Mayfield has played well in spots, reaching a perfect passer rating in last week’s game. Throw in the Bucs’ home-field advantage for this one and their recent better form, and we’ll make this a hunch play of the week.

Chicago 20, Arizona 16 – The Bears return home from what should have been a win in Cleveland to face a team that used to call Chicago home long ago. As has the Bears’ defense, Justin Fields appears to have finally blocked out all the outside noise and settled down to play relatively well. With two top-five picks next spring, they should be able to go a long way into improving in 2024, as much as I thought they would this year. Kyler Murray and a gritty, professional attitude have served the Cardinals well, but lacking talent often makes the difference.

Denver 26, New England 10 (night) – Denver’s fine recovery from a slow start this year saved this game for the Sunday night window, for you know it would have been flexed to the wilderness of a 1 p.m. start if that were not the case. The national rumor mill over Bill Belichick’s future head-coaching status may have also played a part in this game staying where it is on the schedule. I can’t see Belichick taking over the Chargers’ job; the West Coast doesn’t suit his gruff, no-frills personality. Apparently, neither does coaching … at least not anymore. Meanwhile, Denver’s Sean Payton is building a resume that, while it may not remind anyone of Belichick, is turning out pretty darn impactful just the same.

Monday

Kansas City 25, Las Vegas 19 (afternoon early) – I’ve considered Raider fans (along with Cleveland) to have some of the most whiny, self-pitying partisans in the league. But you can’t say that about the team, which has had an admirable showing under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Having said that, I still believe in Kansas City, especially when it plays at home. And while many fans around the country criticized the Chiefs for expressing dissatisfaction with how things have gone lately, I like it! With pent-up frustration out of their system, this team is ready to let it all out on the field, playing like a dynastic team should.

Philadelphia 41, New York Giants 13 (afternoon late) – It’s a second straight Monday game for the Eagles, who had to play across the country in Seattle last week. But they are most decidedly stepping down in class as they host the Giants in this afternoon holiday contest. The Giants and Eagles are known for intense, physical games befitting of a divisional rivalry, but New York isn’t in Philadelphia’s class… at least, not right now. Maybe next year, a game like this could be more hyped and overhyped, but for now, it’s the Eagles’ game – and division race – to lose.

San Francisco 27, Baltimore 26 (night) – With NFL parity, we hear the phrase “Super Bowl preview” at least a dozen times a year. But there’s no hyperbole here: this game has a killer cacophony feel. For one thing, these two have allowed the fewest TDs in the league. Beyond stout defenses, the Ravens have the special-teams advantage, while the Niners have a slightly better and more consistent offense; plus, they will be playing at home, where they have a six-game winning streak. Bottom line? I’ll take the 49ers to win Monday’s battle by the narrowest of margins. That said, if these teams collide again in February in Las Vegas, I’ll pick Baltimore to win the war.