Week 15 features a four-day workweek for NFL teams–Thursday through Monday save Friday. That’s something to look forward to, and it helps me forget my Week 14 performance, which not only ended a two-week hot streak but produced a rare losing week, 6-9, and dropped by season record to 128-80, 62%.
NOTE: Week 15 picks were published originally on Tuesday, December 12.
Thursday
Los Angeles Chargers 13, Las Vegas 9 (Thursday night) – We have another possible prime-time snoozer between two also-ran teams that scored a grand total of seven points last week. The Raiders absorbed a 3-0 loss at home in perfect conditions to Minnesota, a game more fitting if it had been played outdoors by Arizona and Carolina. Meanwhile, the Chargers managed just seven points and lost Justin Herbert to a broken finger against Denver. While Vegas is the home team for this one, the Chargers don’t have to go far and have better offensive playmakers – despite scoring ten or fewer points for three straight games – so we’ll hold our nose and take new quarterback Easton Stick and Los Angeles, losers in four of its last five.
Saturday
Cincinnati 27, Minnesota 10 (early afternoon) – This game is one of three moved into the Saturday afternoon window for the sake of intriguing late-season matchups that could have playoff implications. That means we could see Bengals backup quarterback Jake Browning play in a postseason game; he’s a guy I had confused with long-ago Jets backup Browning Nagle. But he has performed very well in his short time on the field, having learned from one of the league’s best young quarterbacks, Joe Burrow. Minnesota is again the schizophrenic team that bedeviled me last year. Now, it has Justin Jefferson hurt again after the lowest-scoring indoor game in NFL history.
Indianapolis 24, Pittsburgh 17 (late afternoon) – On the surface, this looks like a good pick to flex to the Saturday tripleheader and the middle game at that. This game could have significant AFC wild-card consequences, but hold on a second! What in the world is happening in Pittsburgh? The Steelers, a team with an aggressive defense and the potential to have a good offense, have completely withered away the last two weeks, falling twice at home to a pair of two-win visitors with the boos of their rabid fans ringing in their ears. Pittsburgh, in fact, is the first team in NFL history to be over .500 and lose consecutive games to teams eight or more games below the break-even point. This game will be in Indianapolis, but the Steeler fans who usually travel well might be more supportive, especially considering the team still held a playoff spot as last week began. But when you go into a game thinking Gardner Minshew and the Colts are better equipped at quarterback, that says a lot.
Detroit 23, Denver 16 (night) – With two intradivisional losses in their last three, have the Lions fallen so far as to lose again at home to a team like Denver? I don’t think so. Therefore, I’ll give the Lions one more chance to get it right. Dan Campbell has done a much better head-coaching job than I thought he would do with a perennially losing franchise, and I have to believe he’ll motivate his guys to be up for a Broncos team whose midseason hot streak continued last week against the Chargers. That said, Denver has won six of its last seven, forcing 18 turnovers.
Sunday
Chicago 29, Cleveland 26 – This game, plus the next two on my list below, was moved into the early Sunday afternoon window in a series of flex-related moves. Justin Fields and his Chicago teammates look invigorated with his return to the lineup, and that comes with no disrespect intended to Tyler Bagent, who filled in admirably for him. The Bears have won two straight within their division after losing 12 straight, and now they go on the road to face Joe Flacco and the Browns (still sounds strange, doesn’t it?). Cleveland’s defense proves me right, fading down the stretch of its last few games and being as fraudulent as ever in nearly blowing a multi-touchdown lead to a hobbled Jacksonville squad. Plus, I don’t trust any team that has needed four quarterbacks to win games in a single season.
Atlanta 23, Carolina 13 – The plodding, boring, mealy-mouthed world of the NFC South Division serves up yet another poo-poo platter to (thankfully) a small, regional audience. As I predicted, Tampa Bay played just well enough to outlast the Falcons last week; now, we’re going with Atlanta to take the short road trip to Charlotte and do the bare minimum to keep the Panthers at bay.
Kansas City 31, New England 10 – The Patriots have the home field, the rest coming off the Thursday-night mini-bye, and a better feeling about themselves after going into Pittsburgh and reviving their offense. Then again, they’re playing the Chiefs. Welcome to reality, New England, a team headed by quarterback Bailey Zappe, a name straight out of a bad ’80s movie. I’m aware the Chiefs’ offense has struggled lately, even though I keep picking big points totals for it, but it simply has to get better soon. Kansas City has averaged a mere 19 points per game over its last six games, losing four of them.
Houston 30, Tennessee 19 – C.J. Stroud’s possible concussion didn’t help the Texans cause last week, and it’s still head-scratching to see them not only lose to the Jets but to do so by a wide margin. Overall, the Texans have the better team, and they’ll take their talents on the road to continue to bolster their playoff hopes in Nashville against the Titans, who come back home off a short week and a tough, admirable effort on the road against Miami. It was the Titans’ first win away from Nashville this season.
Miami 45, New York Jets 11 – I don’t even want to know what happened to the Jets to jump-start them to a 30-6 win against Houston last week, something I don’t think many outside the Big Apple saw coming (or many IN New York, either). Whatever magic elixir was at work will see its effects wear off in the heat of the Miami weather and the wake of the Dolphins’ speed and finesse, usually shown at its best at home against bad teams. On top of the Dolphins’ offensive prowess, they have scored a defensive touchdown in three straight games. But here’s a red flag for Miami fans: the league’s top-ranked red-zone offense struggled mightily last Monday in a rare home loss against Tennessee. Still, the Dolphins could finish with the No. 1 seed, something they haven’t done since 1984, Dan Marino’s breakout year.
New Orleans 19, New York Giants 16 – This is one of the week’s tougher picks, but it is not among the most interesting, compelling, or noteworthy. We have two teams playing out the string with no hope for either a playoff spot or the first overall draft pick. The Saints are at home with the better quarterback, and anyone who reads this column regularly knows that those are two big things with me. Also, the rollercoaster-like Saints broke a three-game losing streak last week, so they’re ready to ascend again, albeit temporarily. The Giants also won last week, but I don’t see a last-second win over Green Bay as anything special.
Green Bay 26, Tampa Bay 20 – GB’s win over Kansas City last week should have restored whatever faith many had likely lost in Jordan Love and the team’s ability to make Lambeau Field a nearly impenetrable fortress again. I thought both of those elements would take another year or two, at least, to return, but in the NFL world, things do move rather quickly. That reminds me of the young Packer roster, who should be able to use speed, agility, and newfound confidence to win this home game against the up-and-down Buccaneers. Plus, the Pack will likely be madder than a hornet’s nest over losing an eminently winnable game last Monday against the Giants.
Dallas 34, Buffalo 23 – The Bills fans are still riding the high of last week’s win in Kansas City, so they don’t want to hear about Super Bowls 27 and 28, in which their favorite sons blew early leads and got trampled by the dynastic Cowboys of the ’90s. Dallas is coming off a big home win over Philadelphia that put them in prime position to win the NFC East Division, and I don’t see their mid- to late-season momentum slowed in western New York. The Cowboys, winners of five straight, are not only potent and deep – they have eight wins by margins of 20 or more points this season. The Bills are too inconsistent to claim the same.
San Francisco 40, Arizona 17 – The Cardinals are coming off their bye, one of the last two teams to get the off-week. But it wouldn’t have mattered when Arizona got its rest period with an opponent like this waiting for it. The 49ers made a declarative statement with their win in Philadelphia. And while the Cardinals have shown signs of life lately, they can’t hang with a team playing more than a few levels above them. Plus, the 49ers have won five in a row overall and an impressive 11 straight games against fellow NFC West Division opponents.
Los Angeles Rams 38, Washington 6 – Like the Cardinals, the Commanders are returning from the bye, but it’s irrelevant in Washington’s case. The Rams had won three straight after their own bye before a tactical error doomed them in overtime at Baltimore last week. Los Angeles has good, young skill-position talent that wasn’t totally healthy in Charm City (TE Tyler Higbee comes to mind; he could have made the difference last week), and if they get some of those guys back, a decisive win will turn into a blowout against a team like Washington.
Baltimore 31, Jacksonville 16 (SNF) – With a hobbled Trevor Lawrence and no Christian Kirk, the Jaguars’ offense didn’t wake up until late last week at Cleveland and blew a good chance to pad its AFC South Division lead. Now they are at home to play a Ravens team against which they match up well, historically and this season. The Ravens have an all-time winning record against most franchises but not Jacksonville (10-13). These teams have traded wins in their last nine meetings. Baltimore’s defense came off the bye and looked leaky in the first half against the Rams last week but got into a good rhythm in the second half and overtime. A full week of work with a game under its belt should give that defense a chance to step it up another level. Do the home fans know how to say “Boooo-valll”?
Monday
Philadelphia 30, Seattle 27 (MNF) – This game was the beneficiary of the first-ever Monday-night flex move, getting the coveted spot when New England put a terrible product on the field this year. The Eagles will fly out west on the heels of a blowout loss in Dallas that most observers, including me, expected. The Eagles went without a touchdown for the first time in six years, allowed 30 or more points in three straight games, have the league’s worst third-down defense, and have been outscored 75-32 the last two weeks. But–and it is a big but–Philadelphia could possibly outlast the Cowboys for the NFC East Division title by virtue of an easier schedule the rest of the way. However, Monday’s game won’t be that easy because backup quarterback Drew Lock has performed well for the Seahawks, losers of four straight. But Seattle still has one of the noisiest home fields in the league, and I think they’ll give the Eagles as much of a tough time (if not more) than they gave Dallas … and that’s saying something.
