The holiday season served me well, 21-8 (72%) during Weeks 12 and 13 (9-4, 69%, Week 13), raising my year-to-date record to 122-71 (63%). Week 14 features the last byes of the season (Arizona and Washington). The 15-game schedule includes a Monday Night double dip with Dolphins-Titans and Giants-Packers taking place simultaneously.
NOTE: All games will be played on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted. This article was published initially on Tuesday, December 5.
Pittsburgh 13, New England 3 (Thursday night) – To call the Steelers’ effort in last week’s home loss to Arizona flat would be charitable. The team got a mere one-week boost after changing offensive coordinators, then went back into a curious shell, getting their quarterback injured along the way. Not only that, the team’s leading tackler (Elandon Roberts) and sack man (T.J. Watt) got banged up in the process, and quarterback Kenny Pickett (high ankle sprain surgery) could miss at least two games. Still, Pittsburgh gets a break by not having to travel for the short-turnaround game against the even-more-listless Patriots, who lost a 6-0 game at home last week, their fifth straight loss for the first time since 1995. This could be one of the most lame Thursday games of the year, and that’s saying a lot.
Baltimore 33, Los Angeles Rams 20 – The Ravens are one of three teams coming off their bye week to play the Rams this year. But Baltimore, fresh off its latest bye since 2001, doesn’t care. It just wants to bolster its sparkling post-bye record of 19-8, which includes an impressive 12-3 mark under John Harbaugh, with wins in six of their last seven games coming off bye weeks. The Rams, winners of three straight and clinging to a wild-card spot, have a great aerial offense – and running back Kyren Williams is healthy again, too – but similar teams like Cincinnati and the Los Angeles Chargers have done next to nothing against the league’s best pass rush, tightest-covering, and best-tackling secondary. Versatile Ravens corner Brandon Stephens has done very well in Marlon Humphrey’s place, practically shutting out receivers such as JaMarr Chase and, for a half, Keenan Allen. He’ll probably be assigned to handle both Puka Nacua (who will play with an AC sprain) and Cooper Kupp – and safety Geno Stone may have to hold tight end Tyler Higbee – while Justin Madabuike, Ja’DaVeon Clowney, and the pocket-pushers should get after Matthew Stafford.
Indianapolis 29, Cincinnati 15 – I could blather on endlessly about how the Bengals are home, coming off a short week (and narrowly avoiding a 15th straight prime-time road loss), and all that stuff. But without Joe Burrow, let’s face it, they are not the same team. Meanwhile, the Colts, winners of four straight to grab one of the wild-card spots, always seem to get involved in close, high-scoring games that go down to the wire. This won’t be one of them. Cincinnati, the loser of three of its last four overall, is not a team that can keep pace offensively, last Monday night’s performance notwithstanding.
Jacksonville 26, Cleveland 16 – Joe Flacco still has plenty of fans and admirers in Baltimore, and they were heartened to see him play well last week against the Rams. But the Browns’ defense again proved overrated in a decisive loss. The Browns’ annual and predictable decline should continue at home against the Jaguars, a team cruising towards the AFC South Division crown and a likely seed that could translate to the top spot if certain other teams aren’t careful. Furthermore, the Jags are 5-0 on the road this year, and they’re not likely to lose this one, even without the injured Trevor Lawrence (ankle).
Houston 34, New York Jets 3 – The Jets can’t score points, can’t excite their fans, and can’t get anyone adequate to play quarterback. NYJs are the only team in the league to have used four starting quarterbacks in the last three seasons. On the other side of the ball, Houston is scoring points, winning games, and making friends all over the league. So, I predict this is yet another day when “Gang Green” should be spelled “gangrene.” Not even the absence of Houston standout Tank Dell will make a difference against the Jets, losers of five straight.
New Orleans 27, Carolina 17 – The Saints are home for a second straight week after rallying to give Detroit a good scare. But the point is, they didn’t win, and NFC South Division teams haven’t gotten too comfortable with winning in recent years. That’s especially true in Carolina, which has sunk to the bottom of the entire league thanks to a scattershot new owner and when its front office drafted the wrong quarterback. As much of an inconsistent, hard-to-figure team as the Saints are, they at least have a competent quarterback and one of the league’s loudest home-field advantages. Still, Derek Carr’s concussion protocol status bears watching.
Detroit 34, Chicago 22 – The Bears are coming off a bye that followed their wholly unexpected road upset victory at Minnesota on the Monday night stage–a win that snapped a streak of 12 straight division losses. Okay. But a new streak should start at Soldier Field at the hands of the Lions, who got off fast and held off the Saints last week. Detroit, with a less-than-imposing schedule the rest of the way, is off to its best start since 1962 and is a good bet to sneak away with the top NFC seed. Can this team get to its first NFC Championship Game since (gulp!) 1991?
Tampa Bay 19, Atlanta 17 – Well, the Falcons made me exhale, coming through for me in a game against the Jets that was just as filled with offensive futility as I expected. Now, they return home to play in a game within its gosh-awful NFC South Division. This game is a mash-up of mediocre teams meandering in the NFL wilderness, but I do have to pick a winner. The Bucs, it is, because they have a bit more horsepower under the hood.
Kansas City 37, Buffalo 19 – This is astounding to me: the Bills are only the second team in NFL history to have a point differential of plus-100 or better and not possess a winning record at this point in the season (6-6). Now they go straight into the noisy Arrowhead Stadium cauldron wobbling rather than excelling as many pundits and fans had expected. Quarterback Josh Allen has thrown an interception in eight straight games (the longest streak since Jim Kelly in 1995), and he is 0-6 in overtime games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have recovered from their self-inflicted offensive wounds, and their defense is the best in years. They are starting to peak at the right time despite last Sunday’s loss at Green Bay, while the Bills are fading at the worst possible juncture.
Denver 24, Los Angeles Chargers 17 – We were right: the Chargers aren’t good, but they weren’t bad enough to lose at New England, taking a 6-0 snoozer in the rain. They’re back at their sunny California home to host Denver, playing at a much higher level than earlier in the season. While coaches certainly can’t go on the field and play, they do play a role in how their teams do, and I’ll take Sean Payton over the dead-man-walking Brandon Staley any day of the week.
Las Vegas 26, Minnesota 23 – Both the Raiders and Vikings are coming off byes. Still, Minnesota is doing so after changing quarterbacks, as the bloom is off the rose when it comes to journeyman backup Josh Dobbs. The roll Minnesota was on has ended, evaporating on its home field in a head-scratching, low-scoring Monday-night loss to Chicago. Their incredible luck last year in winning all 11 one-score games has also disappeared, too. As for the Raiders, they will be at home for this one, continuing to put forth maximum effort for high-spirited coach Antonio Pierce. That should be enough…for this week, anyway.
San Francisco 30, Seattle 19 – When the Seahawks lost convincingly to NFC West Division rival San Francisco on Thanksgiving, I thought their season was over. When they lost the following Thursday at Dallas – blowing an eight-point, fourth-quarter lead in the process – I knew it was over. I had such high hopes for the rejuvenated Geno Smith, a multi-faceted offense and an aggressive-as-ever defense. But they have gone into a slump at the worst possible time against the toughest possible schedule. Now, they go on the road for a rematch with the 49ers, one of the league’s most complete teams and one that’s ready to go on another deep playoff run. Seattle has to play smarter; its 7.6 penalties per game is the NFL high. But this year, the 49ers have scored 30 or more eight times, which shows it’s a hard team to stop.
Dallas 29, Philadelphia 27 (Sunday night) – For the last couple of years, the league has seen fit to give Dallas back-to-back Thursday games this time of year–its usual Thanksgiving slot plus another the week after that. That may not sound fair to the opposition, but then again, is it fair to suggest the Cowboys can’t match up with Philadelphia after losing an eminently winnable game at the Linc last month? I don’t think so. In baseball, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen teams go on long winning streaks fueled by wins against bad teams, and that’s what I feel Dallas is getting ready to do right now, even though I wouldn’t call last week’s win over Seattle a victory over “a bad team.” If the Cowboys, winners of four straight, are truly to win the NFC East (as I predicted in August), they have to win this home game and extend a JerryWorld win streak that has now reached 14. The Eagles should be healthy enough to put forth their best effort, but they’ve seemed slightly off all year. But give Philly credit; it finds ways to win most of the time.
Miami 38, Tennessee 10 (Monday night) – There’s not much to say about this game. Dolphins, sitting at 9-3 for the first time since 2001, are at home against a bad team with a young quarterback that can’t keep pace score-wise. This game will be over before it starts, and I felt that way before I knew Derrick Henry had entered concussion protocol.
Green Bay 23, New York Giants 12 (Monday night) – The Giants are coming off a bye, which I’m sure was used to dreaming of what could have been. But who are we kidding? This season was never going to be successful. Now, they return to business in front of home fans to face Jordan Love, who is blossoming faster than their own Daniel Jones. Incredibly, the Packers–a team I picked to finish last in the NFC North–are still in the playoff hunt in the watered-down NFC, having extended their December win streak to 16 games after the home win vs. KC. That run is two shy of the Chargers’ NFL record set in the late 2000s. Green Bay has now won three straight and four of five, and playing the Giants will make it four straight and five out of six–whether or not fan-fav Tommy DeVito is at QB for Big Blue.
