Those who looked beyond the Big 12 hype didn’t expect much in 2023 from Central Florida, Houston, Cincinnati, and BYU, and “not much” is what we got.
It was wrought by necessity, a move that this analyst viewed as subtraction by addition. Texas and Oklahoma bolted the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference, meaning the Big 12 would soon become “the Big 8” again. Getting to twelve required adding four new schools, and the conference did that by graduating four Group of Five competitors into the big time.
But make no mistake about it: trading iconic brands, OU and UT, for UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and BYU wasn’t a straight-up, this-for-that deal. The new configuration wouldn’t be the Big 8 of old, especially when it wasn’t the first time that schools had left the Big 8, and later the Big 12, for greener pastures. Nebraska left for the Big 10, first year of play, 2011; Missouri (SEC, 2012); Colorado (PAC-12, 2011); and Texas A&M (SEC, 2012). Even with two Big 12 additions in 2012–TCU (Mountain West Conference) and West Virginia (the Big East)–the league wasn’t a full twelve; it was ten.
When the unprecedented announcement came that four non-power programs would join the league, this two-time Big 12 graduate (WVU and ISU) saw the move as “big gulp time,” a risk probably worth taking but a risky proposition nonetheless. Why? It wasn’t the norm. When the Big 10 replaced Chicago with Michigan State (1953, first year of play) and expanded with Penn State (1993), and later with Nebraska (2011), Maryland, and Rutgers (both 2014), it did so by absorbing major schools into the fold. The SEC walked the same path with South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Missouri. The ACC did the same with Florida State, Miami, Syracuse, Pitt, etc.
The Big 12, on the other hand, invited college football’s AAA teams to join the majors. But I wasn’t sure if the teams had been promoted to the Big 12 or if the league had executed a self-demotion.
For sure, the four Big 12 newcomers have had football success over time, albeit episodically. BYU won the 1984 national championship as a member of the Western Athletic Conference, and Houston was a force in the old Southwest Conference under Bill Yeoman (1962-86) with the Veer offense he refined and made famous. More recently, Luke Fickel’s American Conference Bearcats won 75+% of games played and made the 2021 College Football Playoff. Then there’s UCF, a school that rapidly rose in about two decades from no football to major status (first-year FBS, 1996). Since then, it made national headlines by beating the likes of Florida, Auburn, Georgia, and Louisville.
But–but is the word here–did anybody expect any of these programs to hit the ground running in the Big 12? I didn’t, and that conclusion came after studying the numbers (e.g., historical results against Power 5 schools) and looking at what the programs would have on the field in 2023, not just on the players’ side, but in coaching, home attendance, stadium, and athletic budget size, and recruiting results. In those terms, only UCF held promise. Houston was on the other end of the continuum. BYU looked in between to me, and Cincinnati had more questions than answers (e.g., new head coach, lineup depth, iffy power recruiting potential).
Each week over the past summer, I shared my analysis–team by team–on Dale Wolfley’s Wolfman’s Call program, and my takeaway message was not to expect much from the newcomers. But (there’s that word again), even I was surprised by their poor showing.
The incoming four teams won only 37% of their games overall (18-31), 22% of their league games (8-28), and none finished with a winning record–in a year many analysts considered a down year from the Big 12.
What a difference from 2022, when all four teams had winning seasons, won nearly 66% of their games (34-19 collectively), and played in bowl games
But I thought 2023 would be different, going so far to assert that pre-existing Big 12 programs would have an advantage over other league members if all four newcomers were on their schedule. Only two schools did, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, and OSU got three of the four teams at home (the Mountaineers split home/away venues). The results? OSU and WVU went 6-2 against the quartet (the ‘Boys losing at UCF and WVU at Houston).
Basketball is a different story because highlighting its national basketball prominence is clearly a priority for the Big 12. The spin early on was how the additions would contribute on the basketball side. I believe the assertion to have merit, too. For starters, it took attention away from football and accentuated how important basketball is to the Big 12, competitively and financially.
So far, so good. As of Christmas Day, the four newcomers have an aggregate basketball ledger of 41-6 (87%) with two teams ranked in the Top 20, #3 Houston and #17 BYU.
Going back to football, I’d be the first to say that one year doesn’t make a trend, and nobody can predict the future. But first-year football results tell us this: success at the Group of 5 level does not automatically predict success at the Power level. Making that leap in football is much more challenging than in basketball (e.g., FAU).
What will 2024 bring? After another deep dive into the numbers, a reasonable prognosis will come over the summer. But (there’s that word again), let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that the gamble is over. It’s not.
The four newcomers will need to prove their standing on the field. The stakes are high, too. It would be myopic to believe that the issues involved are just about the four programs; at stake is the viability of the Big 12 as a power league. We’ve seen enough to know that major college football is piranha-infested–teams poised to jump conferences, conferences engaging in poaching, and media companies competing to get the best lineups possible. In this environment, nothing is certain. The Power 5 became the Power 4 in a flash of an eye, and there’s no assurance that the compression will end there. The ACC already has a target on its back, and the Big 12 could be next.
In college football, as in life, a proviso rings true: Watch what you wish for. Time will tell whether the Big 12’s replacement/expansion wish plays out as hoped.
