Going 12-4 (75%) over the holiday weekend brought my year-to-date record to 63% (113-67). We have two bye weeks left, so there are only 13 games on the docket in Week 13. Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Las Vegas, Minnesota, and the New York Giants get the week off.
NOTE: All games will be played on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted. These predictions were first published on Tuesday, November 28.
Dallas 34, Seattle 20 (Thursday night) – It’s not looking like the Seahawks will be the darkhorse I thought they’d be, as San Francisco, a team starting to play well at just the right time, thoroughly dominated the ‘Hawks in their own home. As for the Cowboys, they are now up to 13 straight home wins going into this Thursday night game – five short of the franchise record, which says a lot. And while they won’t register another blowout – since Seattle is not a bottom-feeding opponent, as many of Dallas’ victims have been – the guys with the stars on their helmets are definitely the better team right now.
Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 19 – Next week, the Cardinals have one of the last byes of the year (along with Washington), and it can’t come soon enough in this dismal season. Kyler Murray is back, but that might be enough to cost Arizona the top overall draft pick. Meanwhile, the host Steelers still have a lot for which to play, especially since making a surprising late-season change at offensive coordinator. In the wake of Matt Canada’s firing, it surprises me that no one nationally mentioned how Baltimore did the same thing in December of 2012, firing Cam Cameron, hiring Jim Caldwell, and going on to win the Super Bowl. The Steelers won’t run the table, but they should win this one, especially after coming from their first 400-yard game on offense since 2020.
Miami 39, Washington 11 – The Commanders have been commanded by practically every opponent this year, and they will march meekly into their bye week after this home slaughter in front of their own fans (and many of Miami’s) against the visiting Dolphins. This is not exactly a Super Bowl 7 rematch (the game that completed the Dolphins’ perfect 1972 season), but the result will be the same, multiplied many times over. Speaking of “over,” please consult “Ron Rivera’s head-coaching tenure in Washington.”
Indianapolis 20, Tennessee 17 – Last week, the top of the AFC South Division met in a good battle when Jacksonville took on Houston and barely escaped with a thrilling three-point win. This week, the bottom pairing will take on each other in Nashville as the Colts take the short trip south. I’m sure it will be entertaining, but neither of these teams is going to the playoffs (to be fair, the Colts do currently own a wild-card spot), and neither one has a realistic shot at the top overall draft pick. So, why watch? You’d have to be an ardent fan of one of these teams – or have some financial/fantasy angle – to even bother. I like the Colts, but only because they have more wins to this point.
Los Angeles Chargers 30, New England 13 – A couple of weeks ago, I used a horse-racing analogy for one of the matchups, stating that a team was facing a better opponent and, in the parlance of the horse track, was “stepping up in class.” Well, the Chargers are taking a big step down here, flying east not to take on a Super Bowl contender – as they did in the Ravens last week – but to feast on the bottom-feeding Patriots.
Atlanta 17, New York Jets 9 – Last time I saw the Falcons playing in a spot where I actually felt like picking them, I did… and they lost at Arizona. Now, they go on the road to play another bad team in the Jets, a team with a stout defense that can only do so much with a misfiring, tepid-at-best offense. I will hold my breath and nose and go with the Falcons again, but I don’t feel great about it. What’s especially amazing about all this is that, technically, the Falcons are in first place in the NFC South Division, thanks to tiebreakers.
Detroit 33, New Orleans 17 – For the Lions to lose for a seventh straight time on Thanksgiving in the midst of the kind of season they are having is truly remarkable. But with the mini-bye now available, they should have little to no trouble going on the road and caring for the up-and-down, wacky Saints. Head coach Dan Campbell won’t let his team get discouraged by the figurative punch in the jaw Green Bay gave them on Turkey Day.
Tampa Bay 23, Carolina 6 – Hard to believe, the way time flies; the Panthers, since their 1995 birth, had only started 1-10 once before this year. But now that they’ve proven – beyond the shadow of a doubt – that they won’t win the putrid NFC South, they are simply playing out the string, including this road game against the division-rival Buccaneers. Nothing I say about Tampa’s up-and-down season – right now, they are down, having lost six of seven – should even matter, considering the quality of the opposition… or the relative lack thereof. The Bucs could lack quarterback Baker Mayfield, who left last week’s game early (X-rays on his ankle returned negative). The Panthers are so luckless they won’t get the post-coach firing boost many teams get.
Los Angeles Rams 24, Cleveland 16 – After playing at Denver last week, the Browns will stay out west and play a team that used to play in their city long ago. The Rams have a better fan base than their co-tenants, the Chargers, and have a team that can play with anyone, considering the talents of quarterback Matthew Stafford and receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Browns are taking on a second straight red-hot team on a winning streak, and we saw what happened to them at Denver. They and their overrated defense didn’t come close to beating the Broncos, and they won’t come close here, either. Fact: the Browns’ allegedly “great” defense allows 29 points per game on the road.
San Francisco 31, Philadelphia 20 – I would take credit for this, but it seems to be that every football analyst saw this coming. They got healthy after the 49ers took their bye and traded for Chase Young. They got right back on track as one of the league’s most balanced, consistent, complete teams. It’s still remarkable to me the Eagles have the record they do despite not firing on all cylinders, especially on defense. Philly gets to be at home for this one, where they are even better than they are away from Lincoln Financial Field. But this is one time where that won’t matter. To its credit, Philadelphia is only the fourth team to start 10-1 the year after losing a Super Bowl, and big-game losers usually regress drastically. Plus, the Eagles have pulled off such a start for two straight years, a historically great accomplishment, and their current five-game winning streak is tied with Denver for the league’s longest at present.
Denver 38, Houston 34 – A few weeks ago, I would have considered the profile of this matchup to be average at best. Now, with both teams in contention, it carries much more weight. The Texans are home again, coming off a spirited three-point loss to AFC South Division rival Jacksonville, while the Broncos are on a five-game heater, having at least three defensive takeaways in four straight games. I predict this game will be a battle of great passing attacks and big-play defenses. In this sport, everything comes down to the quarterback, and, as much as I’ve always been high on C.J. Stroud, I’ll take Russell Wilson’s side to win what should be a great one. By the way, it’s worth noting Denver hasn’t been on a streak like this since 2015, the year of their most recent Super Bowl title.
Kansas City 26, Green Bay 10 (Sunday night) – This game is a rematch of the first Super Bowl, but Bart Starr and Len Dawson won’t be there, and neither will the Los Angeles Coliseum weather because this game is at Lambeau Field. The Packers have to be encouraged by their Thanksgiving win at Detroit, but the Chiefs know they can, and should, be better on offense than they have shown recently (especially in the second half, where they had been blanked for the last three games before last week). The Chiefs would probably be undefeated if they had held on to a few passes earlier this season. Instead, the hand-wringing over this team’s future is rather comical to me. The Chiefs should be just fine. With Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, the Chiefs have a 26-4 record from Week 12 through season’s end. Conclusion? This is KC’s time of year.
Jacksonville 29, Cincinnati 16 (Monday night) – If Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow were healthy, this would be one of the better prime-time matchups of the year, with conference tiebreaker implications to boot. But, it will have to be Jake Browning to lead the Bengals again as they travel to northeast Florida to take on the Jaguars, beneficiaries of one of the league’s easiest divisions. Jacksonville is also coming off a big division road win at Houston, so its confidence is running high after winning seven of its last eight.
