It was another middling week for me, an 8-6 performance that slightly bumped my year-to-date record, raising it to 101-63 (.616). Thankfully (pun intended), it’s time for Thanksgiving, where we have a lot going on, including a full NFL schedule with no byes, the NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game, and my annual high school bonus pick.
THURSDAY
MY ANNUAL BALTIMORE-ARE HIGH SCHOOL PICK, Calvert Hall 22, Loyola 18 – This game, the oldest Catholic archrivalry in the nation – and a big part of my youth – is an annual tradition that doesn’t count towards my NFL win total. Loyola holds the overall head-to-head lead, but Calvert Hall has had the better of it lately. That’s why it is so rare to see Loyola come into this game with the better record of the two, as it will do this year. Yet, with the Cardinals failing to make the playoffs, they come into this game with more rest. That, plus my obvious bias as a Calvert Hall grad (Class of ’81), explains why I’m picking it this way. It should be one of the best, most exciting games in the series, and that’s saying a lot because the game two years ago wasn’t decided until there were just nine seconds left. It’ll be my 49th consecutive Turkey Bowl watching these two, nearly half of this rivalry’s history.
Detroit 27, Green Bay 23 (Thanksgiving afternoon, early) – The epitome of the fickle football fan is the one who keeps complaining that the Lions shouldn’t be featured every Thanksgiving because they won’t be complaining now. The Lions, sporting an 8-2 record for the first time since 1962, have surpassed expectations in recent years and have become watchable and among the league’s elite. Sure, they have a lifetime losing record on the holiday, but they’ve had bad teams most of the time. They did have to struggle to beat the Bears last week, but I don’t think they should have much trouble dispatching the youthful, mercurial Packers.
Dallas 40, Washington 10 (Thanksgiving afternoon, late) – This scenario lines up perfectly for the Cowboys: they will be at home, against a bad team with one of the league’s best pass rushes, against the most-sacked quarterback in the league, on a holiday when they have a stellar record. That, and the six giveaways the Commanders gifted to the cellar-dwelling Giants last week, all add up to what should be one of the more lopsided games in this usually intense archrivalry.
Seattle 30, San Francisco 27 (Thanksgiving night) – Yes, it’s risky, but I’m going this way for two reasons. For one thing, the Seahawks are at home; for another, I picked the Seahawks not only to win the NFC West Division but also to represent the conference in the Super Bowl as the ultimate dark horse selection. In any event, the Seahawks need this game more, as the ‘Niners look refreshed and rested with an impressive post-bye road win at Jacksonville (and with Chase Young in tow, adding to an already formidable defense). The biggest key for Seattle is for quarterback Geno Smith to avoid the turnovers that have plagued him lately.
FRIDAY
Miami 30, New York Jets 3 (Friday afternoon) – Even with the Jets having played stellar defense all season, I’ve finally lost faith in their ability to win games. My hunch pick of a win in Buffalo failed miserably, and now they get to play at home in the league’s first-ever Black Friday game. One look at this team and millions might be inspired to shut off the set and go holiday shopping. Having held off Las Vegas last week, Miami finally showed it can win a lower-scoring game.
SUNDAY
Pittsburgh 23, Cincinnati 16 – The Bengals are coming off a Thursday-night mini-bye, but that’s not enough time to have a healthy Joe Burrow, who is out for the season. Cincinnati will be at home, and it is a desperate team that already has five losses within the AFC, a harbinger of tiebreaker doom. Meanwhile, the Steelers are trying to capitalize on injuries to Burrow and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson to be a solid second in the rugged AFC North despite being outgained in every game but one this season. Even the moribund Pittsburgh offense seems to have come to life since coordinator Matt Canada moved from the booth to the sidelines; all it did was stop itself in Cleveland last week. I feel it will bounce back in this game.
New York Giants 26, New England 13 – The Giants are heading for their bye, while the Patriots are heading for one next week. With teams struggling as much as these two are, the best way I can approach this is to look at what they’ve done lately. Even with just one game under his belt, Tommy DeVito already has looked more impressive than Mac Jones has all season long; he is coming off a win at Washington that I saw coming when no one else did. The Patriots aren’t nearly as invincible at home – or anywhere else – as they used to be, and they should fall meekly here.
Jacksonville 27, Houston 24 – A bad division still gives us a good matchup, but one of the best of the week. The Texans get to host this game, featuring the two teams I picked to finish 1-2 in the AFC South. Houston took a while to shake off Arizona last week while the Jaguars administered a stem-to-stern beatdown of the Titans. Jacksonville looked awful coming off its bye, a spot where it had to play a rejuvenated San Francisco team. This one has no such bad luck, so I’ll take Jacksonville on the road.
Indianapolis 36, Tampa Bay 23 – The Colts are home and coming off a bye with super-sub Gardner Minshew still under center. The Buccaneers are still on the road, fresh from a losing effort at San Francisco, so I think the visitors will be worn out, worn down, and prone to mistakes, especially with Baker Mayfield leading the way. If the Colts could score 38 points on the allegedly great Cleveland defense, what would they do against a mediocre Tampa Bay bunch?
Tennessee 19, Carolina 13 – If you watch this one, hold your nose and have a good time. This is, by far, the “Game of the Weak” between two teams that don’t have a prayer of winning most games in which they’re involved. But I won’t predict a tie, so which side wins? Each side has a dynamic, productive receiver (Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins), but I would say the Titans have the better quarterback, and I don’t care if Will Levis or Ryan Tannehill plays. Tennessee is also at home, so they get a slight nod from me.
New Orleans 33, Atlanta 20 – These NFC South archrivals are coming off their bye weeks, making an always-tasty battle even more so. The Falcons will be at home, but that hardly matters when they play the Saints, a team that usually gets the best of them. New Orleans’ problem has been finding enough consistency to string together a few wins, but this is one spot – a short road trip, coming from an off-week – where the lack of cohesion won’t hurt it nearly as much.
Denver 17, Cleveland 13 – Those of us who are a bit older remember the three AFC Championship Games these teams played in the late Eighties: “The Drive,” “The Fumble,” and “The Blowout.” Of course, no one remembers that third one because it wasn’t even close. It looks as though the Broncos, winners of four straight to get to 5-5, are getting that home-field aura back as the team rounds into form, especially on defense. Even when Cleveland had the likes of Bernie Kosar and Ozzie Newsome, they couldn’t find a way to get past the Broncos, and I certainly don’t feel Dorian Thompson-Robinson, David Njoku, and that fraudulent defense is going to have much success, either. Another note: Denver has scored less than 24 points in all its wins this year, so the lower the score, the better for the Broncos, winners of four straight.
Los Angeles Rams 23, Arizona 10 – The Rams managed to pull off what I feel was an unlikely season sweep of Seattle within the NFC West. But in this game, they go on the road to face a team they are better than at every conceivable level. Kyler Murray’s return was needed for the Cardinals to have any semblance of hope, but they got caught in a track meet with Houston last week and predictably lost. Even without Cooper Kupp, who got hurt last week, the Rams should prevail.
Philadelphia 30, Buffalo 23 – I have to give Buffalo credit for bouncing back and beating the Jets when it seemed to be teetering on the edge of a complete season-ending collapse. But they now go on the road, where they have been less than stellar, to play Philadelphia, a terrific home team. The Bills go on their bye next week, and it’s quite likely they will do so on the heels of another loss.
Kansas City 34, Las Vegas 18 – The Raiders are heading for a bye week after this game, and it may not be a moment too soon after taking on the best team in their division and, quite possibly, the best team in the league (again). Las Vegas has shown a lot of fight and heart under interim coach Antonio Pierce; their relative stifling of Miami last week was impressive, even in a losing cause. But the Chiefs are ready to go on another impressive homestretch run; in fact, they need their offense to look like itself again, for it’s the defense that’s carrying the load so far, thanks to the Chiefs’ newfound propensity for dropping passes at key moments; their 26 drops lead the NFL. But after a tough loss to Philadelphia, Kansas City has a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way.
Baltimore 31, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Sunday night) – The host Chargers are returning from a long and unsuccessful trip to Green Bay, while the Ravens will be concluding their mini-bye after a rousing Thursday night win and a 2-1 homestand. Baltimore is heading for a full bye week after this game, during which they will continue to work young tight ends Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar into the offense to fill in for the injured Mark Andrews. But with the Ravens’ obvious wide-receiver upgrades, the Los Angeles defense – which could be missing pass-rush ace Joey Bosa (foot) – will be hard-pressed to account for all of Lamar Jackson’s targets. The Ravens have been front-runners all year, trailing for roughly 30 minutes of clock time, and once again, they should dictate the pace on both sides of the ball – especially with the league’s top-ranked scoring defense – in a wire-to-wire win.
MONDAY
Minnesota 29, Chicago 26 (Monday night) – Both teams are heading for a bye after this game, and for the home-standing Vikings, it could be just in the nick of time after their five-game winning streak was stopped by Denver last week. Chicago put up a valiant effort in Detroit last time but blew a 12-point lead late by allowing 17 unanswered tallies and losing the game. In other words, these two frustrated and frustrating teams will play in front of the entire league in the national spotlight. They know each other well, so it will be no surprise no matter which side wins. In this situation, I clenched my teeth and took the home team. On top of everything else, Chicago has lost 12 straight to NFC North opponents.
