Week 10 was a doozy, with six games decided by buzzer-beating field goals. Four outcomes put losses on my ledger, leading to an 8-6 performance (57%) and a year-to-date cumulative record of 93-57 (.620). Week 11 features another 14-game late with Atlanta, New Orleans, New England, and Indianapolis taking byes.
NOTE: All games are scheduled for Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Baltimore 27, Cincinnati 20 (Thursday night) – Many national observers are chalking up the Ravens’ Week 2 victory in Cincinnati because Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow wasn’t entirely healthy. But another reason for the Ravens’ win was that Cincinnati’s defense has been inconsistent at best. And with a short turnaround before a road trip (and possibly without Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson, as well as Tee Higgins on offense), it will cost the Bengals again. Of course, the Ravens will be eager to play a four-quarter game at their noisy home and finish much more strongly than Sunday, when it blew a two-score lead to the mistake-prone Browns, and I think they will. The AFC North is football’s best division, and Baltimore, wearing its all-black uniforms for this prime-time showcase, is the best team. But it’s troubling that since 2022, the Ravens are tied with the Colts with seven come-from-ahead late losses.
Pittsburgh 29, Cleveland 19 – Both teams are coming off exhilarating and close wins, with the Browns somehow shooting themselves in the foot multiple times yet winning at Baltimore and outlasting Green Bay. This game is in Cleveland between two ancient archrivals, and in a league increasingly tilted towards offense in recent years, I feel Pittsburgh’s is more mistake-proof, and it will carry the day against the Browns’ defense.
Dallas 33, Carolina 3 – The schedule rotation makes good matchups happen, but then there’s this one. The Cowboys can score at will when playing against mediocre or subpar teams. The Panthers can’t score, but they are pretty fair on defense. Still, let’s give Dallas the big advantage.
Jacksonville 31, Tennessee 13 – What happened to the Jags last week was akin to the maladies suffered by Detroit and Seattle when those two teams played at Baltimore–blowout losses to a superior team but then quickly recovered. That’s the same storyline I feel Jacksonville is living through now after getting manhandled by the 49ers. I don’t feel Jags fans have anything to worry about, especially because the opponent is the feckless Titans this week.
Miami 34, Las Vegas 20 – The Dolphins are coming off their bye week, and they have to count their lucky stars that they get to be at home. Why? They are averaging a whopping 21 points per game more at home than on the road, and all three of their losses have come away from Hard Rock Stadium. Vegas seems renewed under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, who is 2-0 so far, but with the Dolphins at home and well-rested. Few visitors would even stand a chance in circumstances like that.
New York Giants 16, Washington 13 – Tommy DeVito. That name sounds like someone singing harmonies with Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons. But he’s the New Jersey resident who quarterbacked the Giants last week in their inevitable blowout loss in Dallas. However, he’s the kind of guy whose story is crying out for a Hollywood moment. Enter the Commanders! I see DeVito getting a game ball after a road win. Frankie, who’s nearly 90 now, will be proud.
Houston 24, Arizona 9 – Wins like the ones the Texans got at Cincinnati last week are why I picked this team to finish second in their division. The Bengals had gotten in stride and played at home, but the Texans just jumped on them and held on. Now, Houston returns home to take on the hapless Cardinals, who can beat a team like Atlanta but not one that has gotten better as has Houston.
Los Angeles Chargers 36, Green Bay 26 – The Chargers can’t stop a quarterback and an offense that knows what it’s doing, but that description doesn’t apply to Jordan Love and the Packers, a team coming off a loss to a Pittsburgh team that has been inconsistent at best. The Chargers have been able to score points all season long, and the Los Angeles defense should be able to slow down Jordan Love and his teammates at least enough to outlast them for a tough road win.
Detroit 27, Chicago 16 – Fresh off a West Coast trip that proved fruitful, the Lions are back home to face a division opponent that knows them well. But not even familiarity can breed enough contempt to help the Bears in this game. Detroit is getting more mileage from its young head coach than Chicago does with the same circumstances. The Bears should take plenty of copious notes about how Detroit got better, then try to apply them to their situation.
New York Jets 27, Buffalo 23 – These are teams heading in opposite directions. The Jets scored on its opening possession last week for the first time all year and, despite being 4-5 and without a touchdown in three dozen drives, seem to be trending upward thanks primarily to their defense. The Bills have slowly slid out of the AFC East Division and now have a .500 record as injuries burden the defense, and a turnover-prone offense can’t shoulder the load. Why pick the Jets when the Bills need a win in the worst way? It’s a hunch pick.
San Francisco 40, Tampa Bay 17 – In horse racing, a winner who takes on better horses in their next start is said to be “stepping up in class.” That’s exactly what the Buccaneers are doing here, going from a home game against Tennessee to a road game against the rejuvenated ‘Niners. In last week’s introductory paragraph, I said that San Francisco sure could use that bye week, and the rest they got – along with the Chase Young acquisition – seemed to be needed tonic. The team stomped Jacksonville, a team that had won five straight, and I predict the 49ers are on yet another roll.
Seattle 30, Los Angeles Rams 26 – This NFC West Division clash is one of the week’s toughest picks. I’ve been high on Seattle all year, but look at what’s happened the past two weeks: first, a blowout loss at Baltimore, followed by an unnecessarily close home win over Washington. Can the ‘Hawks put it together on the road against a post-bye Rams team that has been a bit better than anyone thought? I think so, especially if Geno Smith can reduce the turnovers that have plagued him lately.
Minnesota 26, Denver 20 (Sunday night) – I thought I’d never type these words: I’m taking Joshua Dobbs over Russell Wilson. Yeah, I said it, and for good reasons, too. The Vikings’ winning streak has reached five–despite losing Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins and having the newly acquired Dobbs steering the team. Dobbs should find a way again this week, even against the Broncos’ much-improved defense that has keyed three wins in its last four games. Early in Super Bowl history, these two teams were known as the big game’s biggest losers, with four defeats each. But these days, the Vikings are much closer to getting back there than the Broncos.
Kansas City 29, Philadelphia 27 (Monday night) – I know some of you are wondering about this, so I’ll burst your bubble right now: the league doesn’t “set up” Super Bowl rematches like this. The scheduling formula, in place since 2002, dictates several years in advance when teams meet in the regular season, and naturally, this one gets a prime-time slot. In other words, this sort of thing doesn’t happen every year, so fans everywhere should savor the moment. Both teams are coming off their bye weeks, making it even more mouth-watering. I want what the TV networks wish: a back-and-forth game with multiple lead changes, big plays, and controversial calls. The Chiefs are at home, and their defense is playing better than the Eagles, so they get the check mark from me.
