A solid Week 9 (9-5, 64%) puts me at 85-51 (63%) for the season. We dive into the second half of the NFL campaign with another 14-game slate and the final International Series game of the season between the Patriots and Colts. Getting the week off are Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, and the Los Angeles Rams. Here’s how I see Week 10 shaping up.
NOTE: This article was published on Tuesday, November 7. All games are scheduled for Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Chicago 13, Carolina 9 (Thursday night) – Some of the Thursday night games have been pretty good this year, but I don’t anticipate this being one of them. The NFL has a devout audience, though, and every game is sure to draw better ratings than the just-concluded World Series. That said, the Panthers will limp into Chicago to face a Bears team with a little more in the tank (emphasis on “little”), even with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. Bagent’s up-and-down Cinderella story continues with a home-field win.
Indianapolis 23, New England 19 (Sunday morning, Frankfurt) – Both teams are heading for their bye after their German excursion, and the shame of this game is that the matchup wasn’t during the Manning-Brady era. Neither team is among the league or conference elite anymore, but the Colts have a little more than the Pats do at present.
Baltimore 31, Cleveland 6 – Okay, so my hunch that Arizona would beat Cleveland didn’t work out. But it did take a while for the Browns to pull away, which says as much about them as it does about the Cardinals. Cleveland isn’t as impressive as some of the talking heads would have you believe, and this week, the team walks into a stadium where the host Ravens have allowed nine points in their last two home games to a pair of division-leading teams. This is the 50th Browns-Ravens clash, and it should end the way much of the other 49 have–the deeper, faster, better Ravens winning comfortably.
Cincinnati 30, Houston 17 – The Bengals are one of two teams that had a negative point differential through eight weeks yet still had a winning record going into last week. Pittsburgh is the other, which is a testament to the toughness of the AFC North. I’m high on Houston this year – C.J. Stroud had a record-setting rookie performance last week – but to go on the road to face a newly-resurrected, healthy offense and hold it down after it has won four in a row (Joe Burrow’s finger notwithstanding) would be a big ask. The Texans will play tough but come up short.
Pittsburgh 23, Green Bay 16 – Last week, we saw what happened when a young quarterback went into Pittsburgh to face that Steeler defense. Tennessee’s Will Levis played well but couldn’t make the big plays at the big times, and the home team won. Pittsburgh got the mini-bye after a Thursday-nighter and will now entertain Jordan Love and the league’s youngest team. Kenny Pickett is slowly grasping NFL-style offensive concepts, so it seems like the level of his game is going up a bit faster than that of Love. Indeed, the Steelers scored a first-quarter touchdown last week for the first time in five games. Incredibly, they have a league-high four wins when trailing after three quarters.
San Francisco 31, Jacksonville 27 – Both teams come off their bye weeks, and there are key questions for both squads. For the Jags: Did the bye cool off a team on a winning streak> For the ‘Niners: Will the Chase Young acquisition make much of a difference after a three-game losing streak? Jacksonville has the better quarterback, but San Francisco is a more veteran team that can deal with any circumstances. That’s why I predict SF will get a road win.
Tampa Bay 26, Tennessee 20 – This is a South Division battle, albeit with teams from different conferences. Big deal? No. As much as I don’t think Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield will ever be a top-shelf quarterback, I’ll go with experience and the home field here. Reason? The Bucs’ offensive explosion in Houston last week counts for something, so I see Tennessee coming off a mini-bye to take a second straight tough road loss.
New Orleans 27, Minnesota 24 – The Vikings have been wandering in the quarterback wilderness since Kirk Cousins was lost for the year, but their savvy acquisition of Josh Dobbs saved their bacon against Atlanta last week–even after he hit the field cold and without practicing with the team. Now, this week, they are at home against a much better opponent, the Saints, who had to struggle to put away Chicago. What does it mean? These two teams are floundering to put away teams at a similar skill level. What’s the difference? It’s Taysom Hill, the Saints’ answer to a Swiss Army knife, and the deciding x-factor in this contest.
Dallas 37, New York Giants 0 – When these two teams met earlier this season, the Giants couldn’t have looked any more feckless than they did. Now, they meet in Arlington, where the Cowboys have built an 11-game home winning streak. I don’t often pick shutouts, but that’s how wide the gulf is between these two, especially with Daniel Jones being done for the year and Tyrod Taylor being on the IR. (Who’s the Giants’ quarterback?)
Seattle 33, Washington 10 – Luckily for the Seahawks, they had a long flight back home from Baltimore to shake off the cobwebs of both changing their clocks and getting them cleaned by the dominant Ravens. Awaiting them at Lumen Field will be the Commanders, products of a long plane ride themselves after barely beating the sorry Patriots. Washington threw in the towel at the trade deadline, making its already-porous defense even worse by dealing Chase Young away. The Commanders are below .500, where they are likely to stay until the season’s end, while the Seahawks resume their chase for an NFC West Division title.
Detroit 29, Los Angeles Chargers 22 – There was little doubt in my mind that the Lions would rebound from their blowout loss in Baltimore by dispatching the Raiders at home. Now, they come off their bye and travel to the West Coast to take on the enigmatic Chargers, who are playing on a short week after a Monday night road game on the East Coast against the Jets. Jared Goff was seen as the Justin Herbert of his time, and now they will go head-to-head. That said, the Lions have a much better defense, which should carry the day.
Atlanta 24, Arizona 13 – Regular readers know I think little of the Falcons, and I wouldn’t say I like picking them to win any week. But there can be no softer landing site than State Farm Stadium. The Cardinals didn’t display their trademark peskiness in Cleveland last week, which I thought would have been a perfect place to do just that. Atlanta did show some guts and heart in narrowly losing to Minnesota last week, so I’ll hold my breath and take the Falcons here.
New York Jets 26, Las Vegas 20 (Sunday night) – These two franchises met in the historic “Heidi Game” (telecast cut short) in 1968, but I that fate might be appropriate (and no mistake) this year. (It won’t because these teams play before high-profile television markets.) The Raiders looked good in their first game after the coaching change, but that was against the sorry Giants. Now, they play host to the other New York team, the more viable one (and whoever believed anyone would say that about the Jets?). The long trip won’t matter because the Raiders still have a lot to sort out, and to do it against a tough defense like the Jets’ is a big ask.
Buffalo 36, Denver 17 (Monday night) – The Bills get yet another prime-time television showcase, this one at home against a Denver team coming off its bye and the previous week’s upset win over Kansas City. But in that game, it was more about what the Chiefs did wrong (five turnovers) than anything the Broncos did. These two teams have their niches within the league carved out definitively, with the Bills fighting for a place among the elite and Denver merely fighting to become relevant. Noteworthy is that Buffalo has gone 2-3 after starting 3-1. Who would have predicted that flip?
