I got smacked by Week 7’s minimalist 13-game schedule (5-8), which dropped my year-to-date record to a pedestrian 64-42 (60%). That’s not how I’ve rolled over the years, so I’m up from the mat, ready to tackle Week 8 with its full 16-game slate.
NOTE: All games are on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted. These picks were published initially on Tuesday, October 24.
Buffalo 27, Tampa Bay 19 (Thursday night) – The Buccaneers are a hard-to-figure team from a hard-to-figure division, the woeful NFC South. One week, they can’t do anything at home against Detroit, and the next, they battle Atlanta tooth-and-nail before losing late to fall to 3-3. Amazingly, the Bills have lost two straight to drop to 4-3, a record most teams would love to have, but it’s mediocre by Buffalo’s standards. Even though it’s a short turnaround, the Bills are home for this prime-time mismatch, and if Josh Allen can get into a comfort zone and get the ball out quickly – with stats showing he’s more effective that way – and the Bills should cruise in this one.
Jacksonville 20, Pittsburgh 17 – Two questions…. How good a head coach is Mike Tomlin? How bad of an offensive coordinator is ex-Maryland interim headman Matt Canada? The Steelers have been outgained by a whopping 660 yards this year and have been outgained in all six of their games this year. Yet, they are 4-2 thanks to T.J. Watt and an aggressive, physical defense. Even with a maniacal fan base, the Steelers are just as beatable at home as any team, and they have red-hot Jacksonville visiting this Sunday. The Jags are on a roll, thanks primarily to Trevor Lawrence and a fine group of receivers. This game should be fun to watch, regardless of your side.
Dallas 31, Los Angeles Rams 20 – For some strange scheduling reason – and remember, it’s done randomly by computer at the NFL home office – three teams are coming off their bye weeks to play the Rams. Dallas is the first to do so after its uplifting yet challenging win over the Chargers. The Cowboys are slowly starting to figure things out, getting CeeDee Lamb more involved in the passing game and getting more pocket pressure from their front four. The latter allows Micah Parsons to roam free and make plays in a style reminiscent of Ray Lewis. He’s not at Ray’s level yet, but he’s making the same kind of impact. Dallas needs to beat an upper-echelon team to reclaim its bonafide, but a win here won’t change that claim.
New York Jets 17, New York Giants 13 – The schedule rotation dictated that these MetLife Stadium co-tenants meet in a regular-season game this year, and with the Giants as the designated home team. That’s why all the stadium decals and the on-field logos will be blue instead of green, and the season ticket holders will be off the Giants’ rolls. Still, it would be no surprise to see the Jets’ above-average defense get cheers from the five-borough crowd as it gets after either Tyrod Taylor or Daniel Jones. The Giants are coming off my second hunch-play win of the year, beating a sorry Washington outfit, but these Jets, returning from their bye, are better than those Commanders. I’m guessing New Jersey, Queens, and Long Island will be happy after this one, while Connecticut, Manhattan, and the Bronx will sulk.
Houston 24, Carolina 10 – You may think it’s strange, considering how these two teams aren’t exactly elite, but I’ve been looking forward to this one since the schedule was released in May. Why? It will further prove that I was right: C.J. Stroud is a better quarterback than Bryce Young and should have been the first overall pick. Stroud is showing more maturity and veteran-esque field savvy than the deer-in-the-headlights Young. The winless Panthers, whose bye last week was sorely needed, are home for this one, but that makes little to no difference; after all, they got off to a 14-0 lead on Miami before the planets correctly aligned again. Houston is also back from its bye, refreshed and ready to roll again.
Minnesota 30, Green Bay 17 – Through the Sunday games in Week Seven, who had the most touchdown passes in the league and the worst prime-time record? Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins miraculously did not live up to the latter stat on Monday night at home against San Francisco. This week, he and his mates – who have to break their habit of starting slow in games, a habit they broke against San Francisco – go on the road to face a floundering Packer squad that has seen Jordan Love regress from a very good first two weeks to a subpar performance since. I don’t think losing to Denver was rock-bottom, but falling at Lambeau Field to a traditional NFC North rival would be. As schizophrenic as the Vikings, I feel they can take this one.
Indianapolis 34, New Orleans 23 – The Colts have the blue horseshoes on their helmets (which looked hideous with a black background last week), but the Browns were lucky to get out of Lucas Oil Stadium with a win. The Saints, struggling to score even with a veteran like Derek Carr under center, won’t be so lucky.
Miami 33, New England 13 – The teams the Dolphins have beaten have a combined record of 8-25 this year, while the teams to which they have lost are a combined 10-4. Once again, it looks like Miami is a soft, warm-weather team that won’t be able to beat good teams or beat anyone when the weather gets colder. All of that said, it would be asking a lot for the Patriots to get a second straight division win.
Tennessee 23, Atlanta 20 – If Atlanta were putting up 30 points per game, I might start to believe in Desmond Ridder, but they aren’t, so I don’t. The Falcons have a pretty good defense and one of the league’s best kickers, which has helped in close games. The host Titans are coming off their bye, but they lost their “Bye,” so to speak, in safety Keith Byard, a great playmaker, who got traded to Philadelphia. Their terrific offensive weapons, Derrick Henry and De’Andre Hopkins, couldn’t get untracked against Baltimore, but few do. But they should be just fine in this game.
Philadelphia 38, Washington 9 – This pair of NFC East Division rivals met in Philadelphia just a few weeks ago, and the Eagles won in overtime. It won’t be nearly as suspenseful this time in a game played at “Lincoln Financial South” because many Eagles fans will be in the stands at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. The discontent is growing in the Washington locker room, as some players have learned that losing is a way of life.
Baltimore 36, Arizona 16 – Many years ago, the Ravens had to stage their biggest home comeback in their history against the Cardinals. But the way the Todd Monken-coordinated offense has developed over the first seven weeks–and the way the defense has allowed just six first-quarter points, tied for the league low–having to stage a comeback will be a memory. Plus, if the Ravens continue to show an offense that matches their top-five defense, they can book a February date north of Tempe in Las Vegas, NV, to play in you-know-what.
Seattle 24, Cleveland 17 – It’s incredible how many kudos the Browns’ defense continues to get from the national TV talking heads when offenses that have performed at average-at-best levels, like Baltimore and Indianapolis, have blown the Browns off the field. That tells me what I’ve seen before many times–Cleveland’s is overrated (defense this time). Although harshly stated, I believe it’s accurate. If that unit had to take on Miami right now, could it slow down those guys as well as the Eagles did? I don’t think so, and plenty of young, fast, hungry Seahawks are preparing to show what they can.
San Francisco 31, Cincinnati 19 – Talk about two ships passing in the night. The visiting Bengals are coming off their bye week, while the 49ers are heading for theirs after this home game on a short week. But the one day less of rest won’t matter in a game that most definitely won’t be filled with the suspense that Super Bowls 16 and 23 had. The Bengals’ offense has slowly rounded into form after yet another slow start. Still, the San Francisco defense has shown physicality and consistency, which should take care of business in this one. Sure, the ‘Niners gave up 375 pass yards to Minnesota in a second straight loss, but don’t see that continuing.
Kansas City 41, Denver 17 – Next week’s Broncos bye is coming one week too late, as they should go into it reeling from another lopsided loss, this time to the league’s best team. The Chiefs are playing better defense than at any time in their current dynastic run, and their offense is rounding nicely into form as their no-name receivers are making people know their names.
Los Angeles Chargers 23, Chicago 17 (Sunday night) – Tiny Shepherd College (WV) is a Division II school that gives opportunities to young players who don’t get offers from the FBS big boys. Bears quarterback Tyler Bagent grew up fast last week as Chicago took apart the Raiders at home. Now, he goes on the road to take on the frustrating (and frustrated) Chargers, a team that scores many points, gives up plenty, and constantly falls victim to teams with more heart and better coaching. Yet, despite all that, Bagent should now experience the agony of defeat after his thrill of victory.
Detroit 23, Las Vegas 6 (Monday night) – The Lions have next week off, but I’m sure some of their fans hoped it would be this week after getting eviscerated at Baltimore. But the Honolulu Blue crowd shouldn’t worry. Detroit will be back home with a relatively healthy team and one of the league’s best combinations of offense and defense. Last Sunday, the Lions had a bad day against a good opponent, which the Raiders definitely aren’t.
