Going 9-6 in Week 6 (60%) dropped my season-to-date record to 63% (59-34). With Carolina, Cincinnati, Dallas, Houston, New York Jets, and Tennessee on byes, Week 7 features a season-low game count (N=13). Countering low quantity with high quality, the Ravens-Lions game is my pick for Game of the Week.
NOTE: Picks were published originally on Tuesday, October 24. All games are on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Jacksonville 27, New Orleans 17 (Thursday night): The Saints are struggling to score points and have lost three of four. The Jaguars are heading in the opposite direction, meaning Jacksonville should eventually take full control of the middling to below-average AFC South Division. That said, Trevor Lawrence’s injury bears watching on a short week.
Baltimore 19, Detroit 16: This is the week’s best matchup; both teams are currently the No. 3 playoff seeds in their respective conferences. Lions quarterback Jared Goff has been slicing up zone defenses all year, but the Ravens’ healthy secondary is tackling and covering better than in recent memory. The Ravens are just back from London, and both they and the Lions boast top-five defenses, making points scarce. Detroit is off to its best start in 12 years, with four straight double-digit wins for the first time since 1991. That’s when they had a guy named Barry Sanders on the team. But the host Ravens are 12-2 when inducting someone into their Ring of Honor, and franchise all-time sack leader Terrell Suggs is going in this week. Ironically, Suggs once got ejected from a game in Detroit.
Indianapolis 24, Cleveland 15: In a league loaded with parity, statistical oddities can rear their heads. For instance, how does Cleveland have the league’s best defense when an average offense like Baltimore’s blew it off the field? Plus, how did the Browns knock off the unbeaten 49ers? (Answer–a few questionable calls). Now Cleveland takes the short trip to Indiana to face the gutsy Gardner Minshew and a strong Colts running game that won’t abandon the rush quickly, if at all.
Buffalo 40, New England 6: The last time the Patriots were this bad (not scoring more than 20 points in any game and starting 1-5) was in 1995. Even though Buffalo has issues with a stalled offense and big-name injuries on all three defensive levels, the Bills are the better team and should collect an easy road division win.
Las Vegas 27, Chicago 13: Quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Fields square off at Soldier Field in what should be termed the “Disrespect Bowl.” The difference is that Garoppolo has played well enough to earn some of it back, bringing the Raiders to the .500 mark going into a game against another black-clad team that can’t forge an identity or execute.
Tampa Bay 26, Atlanta 16: The Falcons blew a giant opportunity last week, losing at home to a Washington team that isn’t nearly as good as its record. Now, they play on the road against another overachieving team, the Buccaneers. Wins in the NFC South Division don’t mean as much in a weak quartet, so winning a game like this is critical. Baker Mayfield has the experience edge at quarterback over Desmond Ridder, and that’s all Tampa Bay will need.
New York Giants 24, Washington 19: This is my hunch play of the week. The Giants had to feel encouraged despite losing at Buffalo, fighting to the end with a healthy Saquon Barkley and a below-average quarterback in Tyrod Taylor. Now, they return home and should be buoyed by their always loyal fans. Besides, the Commanders’ inevitable fall to the NFC East cellar should start any week now.
Los Angeles Rams 23, Pittsburgh 9: The Steelers come back from their bye still flush after a big (lucky?) win over rival Baltimore. Now, they head to the West Coast to play a Rams team that is, to be frank, overachieving. Still, LAR has Matthew Stafford, who has much more experience than Kenny Pickett, whose Matt Canada-schemed offense is doing him no favors. They got away with a flat effort against the Ravens, but they won’t be able to do that this time.
Kansas City 29, Los Angeles Chargers 20: The Chargers are coming off a tough Monday-night loss against Dallas, and they must now travel on a short week to face what I feel will eventually be (once again) the league’s best team. Besides, the Chiefs have the Chargers’ number, and this season KC is winning with a no-name receiving cast and a defense that’s playing better than any time over the last five seasons.
Green Bay 20, Denver 10: The Packers went into their off-week on the heels of a bad loss, and they now return for a trip into what can sometimes be the debilitating altitude of the Rocky Mountains. The youthful visitors are far from the Super Bowl 32 team that lost to the Broncos, but I still feel they are the better team here. In low- and high-scoring games, Denver has lost to good and bad teams. It would be a stretch to say that Jordan Love is playing better than Russell Wilson, but not much of a stretch.
Seattle 30, Arizona 17: The Seahawks couldn’t fend off an intense Bengals pass rush at crucial times last week, and it kept them out of the end zone in the clutch. The visiting Cardinals also boast an aggressive defense, but one that doesn’t have nearly as much talent as Cincinnati. The Lumen Field crowd will be hyped, as it usually is, and this NFC West clash should be decided early.
Miami 31, Philadelphia 23 (Sunday night): It’s more of an offensive league than ever, and road teams are more successful than ever. To me (and many other pundits), the Eagles have looked slightly off all year. Jalen Hurts is committing turnovers at a Dak Prescott-like pace, and the Eagles defense will have to deal with the team with the most pre-snap motion and speed in the league. The Eagles have to run the ball and keep it away from a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, whose quick-release passes keep him healthy and outdo Hurts’ slower launches. I see the Dolphins prevailing in what should be an entertaining game.
San Francisco 33, Minnesota 10 (Monday night): I’m sure the most optimistic Viking fans think they are catching San Francisco at the right time–at home in a national TV game and with the Niners missing running back Christian McCaffrey, tackle Trent Williams, and wideout Deebo Samuel. But the visitors have more than enough depth and talent, and the recent bad memory of losing last Sunday in Cleveland.
