After having an uncharacteristic 7-9 (44%) Week 1 start, I went 35-13 during Weeks 2-4 (73%). The bounce-back puts me at 42-22 (66%) for the year.
The 16-game slates are over for a while, replaced by a 14-game routine because of byes. The first byes go to the Bucs, Seahawks, Browns, and Chargers.
In Week 5 action, I see three Super Bowl contenders losing.
NOTE: All games are scheduled for Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Chicago 23, Washington 20 (Thursday night): These two teams represent big TV markets, and that’s why they get a prime-time game. Last week, the Bears finally awoke from hibernation on offense, but its defense blew a big lead at home to a better quarterback. While I see Washington’s Sam Howell on the same level as Justin Fields, albeit with less experience, I’ll go with experience and take the Bears to break into the win column.
Jacksonville 30, Buffalo 26 (Sunday morning, London): Buffalo finally clicked on all cylinders in a division showdown against Miami last week, and this team showed that it is one of the AFC’s best, just as I expected. So, why will the Bills lose in London? As I’ve previously written on these pages, the NFL brass privileges the Jaguars by having them play there frequently, and frequency of play means Jacksonville is acclimated to the travel and the setting. To add to the advantage, the Jags played in London last week (beating the Falcons), and the team will remain there to play the Bills in Week 5. Doesn’t seem fair, does it?
Baltimore 27, Pittsburgh 13: The Steelers, heading for a bye next week, are hamstrung by a bottom-five offense. It’s bad enough that Pittsburgh has the worst yardage differential in the league, but now young quarterback Kenny Pickett is hurt, too. It means that the usually dominant Steeler defense has had to work harder and longer and is already worn down. While this rivalry has been known for close games, this game won’t be one of them.
Indianapolis 31, Tennessee 13: The Titans looked impressive against slumping Cincinnati and now face a short road trip for an AFC South clash with the Colts, authors of a near-otherworldly comeback against the visiting Rams last week. Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is back from a concussion and is hitting his post-injury stride more rapidly than anticipated. The Titans have shown they don’t play well against teams that dictate tempo with young talent, and I think the Colts have enough to win comfortably.
New Orleans 24, New England 6: The Patriots are 1-3 for a third straight year, and the team has scored just 55 points in their first four games., losing three games by 23 points or more. The last time that happened was in 2000, the first year of the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick run. And even though the Saints’ Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara haven’t played at their best, top-notch won’t be required to vanquish struggling New England.
Miami 39, New York Giants 17: This is “The Bill Arnsparger Bowl” because Arnsparger, the great defensive mind from the 70s, worked for both teams. It’s unlikely that Arnspager, who passed away nearly a decade ago, would recognize today’s NFL, and it’s a sure thing he wouldn’t recognize the Giants. NYG goes on the road this week to face the Dolphins, a team that’s stinging after getting manhandled in Buffalo. New York’s limitations and Miami’s angst tell you how this game will turn out.
Detroit 41, Carolina 20: Picking the Panthers to win the wide-open NFC South may have been a big mistake because, by season’s end, this team could find itself in the division basement. If that happens, the primary causes could be a bad offensive line and a rookie quarterback (Bryce Young). And even though I’m still not sold on Detroit quite yet, the Lions have shown me enough to predict they will get a road W this Sunday.
Houston 34, Atlanta 23: The Texans proved my hunch right last week, catching the slumping Steelers at just the right time. They will do the same this week as they go on the road to play a Falcons squad just back from London. But even if Atlanta hadn’t traveled there, I’d still pick the Texans because I’ve felt the Falcons were overhyped from the beginning.
Arizona 17, Cincinnati 16: Remember September? Back then (it seems so long ago), the Bengals were Super Bowl contenders, while the Cardinals looked like one of the league’s worst teams. Where are we today? The Bengals haven’t scored a first-half offensive touchdown, while the Cardinals have shown a lot of fight and heart, especially when playing at home. My October pick is Arizona.
Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia 23: Last week’s hunch play–the Texans over Pittsburgh–was proven right, and this pick is made with a similar mindset. The Rams still have Matthew Stafford, a guy who can keep them in any game, and they will be at home against the unimpressive, yet still unbeaten, Eagles. The schedule would eventually get tougher for Philadelphia; that time is here.
New York Jets 20, Denver 17: Denver can score many points quickly, but this week it’s up against a very good defense with a quarterback (Zach Wilson) that has turned the corner at that position. I’ll take the Jets to get a road win.
Kansas City 26, Minnesota 19: Let’s get one thing straight: if you’re looking for comments about a pop star dating a football player, you won’t find them here. But I will say with certainty that neither Otis Taylor nor Joe Kapp, who played for these franchises in Super Bowl 4, will be walking through the doors at Bank Stadium. Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins will, and one of them is the obvious choice. You know who that is.
Dallas 33, San Francisco 30 (Sunday night): The Cowboys are only 4-for-15 in the Red Zone over their last three games, but they have the kind of offense that can strike from anywhere. Meanwhile, the defense has adjusted to life without Trevon Diggs, which New England learned the hard way last week. And while San Francisco is undefeated at 4-0 for only the fifth time in its history, Dallas has won the last two regular-season clashes. I believe they’ll make it three on Sunday.
Green Bay 27, Las Vegas 20 (Monday night): The Raiders are at home in prime time, which doesn’t mean nearly as much as it did when the franchise was in Oakland (especially) or Los Angeles. The Packers might have just as many fans at this game, anxious to party in Vegas before winter sets in. Winter might have come for Jimmy Garoppolo’s career, but Jordan Love is in the spring of his, and he has bloomed a bit in 2023.
