The NFL’s most complicated stat explained.
Each year at this time, I run this column about the NFL’s Passer Rating Formula, slightly altered to reflect current trends. I get plenty of questions about this statistic –- and year-round, I might add –- so I like to haul it out annually.
Ghosts, goblins, and blood? That’s mere child’s play, the stuff of healthy, youthful role-playing fantasy, no matter what the overzealous, politically correct crowd says. No! What makes this portion of the calendar most perilous are the dangling playoff fortunes of the many NFL teams that may think they are contenders but aren’t. What leads to such uncertainty? The leaguewide passing-game explosion, that’s what.
Just as baseball observers have endlessly complained that expansion has diluted quality pitching throughout the sport, the same could be said of the depth of NFL defenses falling victim to the gaudy passing numbers offenses are posting. In 2008, there was but one quarterback — the Chargers’ Philip Rivers — who notched a season-long passer rating higher than 100. Eight years later, five quarterbacks with appreciable playing time surpassed that figure. Twelve additional signal-callers broke the 90-barrier.
Through Week Seven of 2023, six quarterbacks have a rating of 100 or higher, and eight more are at 90 or better. With 158.3 denoting a perfect passer rating, it means –- more so than at any previous point in history –- that quarterbacks are closer to perfect than they’ve ever been.
In recent years, ESPN has unveiled the QBR, a weighted system so that 100 is the number for a perfect rating. But since the league does not recognize that system as official, we’ll go with the current system.
We could be heading for a return to the days when teams would be facing future Hall of Fame quarterbacks every week, concerned — if not downright fearful — that they would be victimized by the tenacity of a Roger Staubach or John Unitas, the arm of a Sammy Baugh or Bart Starr; or the accuracy of a Len Dawson or Otto Graham. None of the above QBs or their contemporaries seem to care much about statistics, such as the modern-day implementation of the passer rating (1973).
Besides, the oft-maligned statistic shouldn’t be called a “quarterback” rating because it doesn’t measure leadership and other intangibles unique to the position. That said, it means just about everything for fans, coaches, and general managers who evaluate talent and need an all-encompassing number to see where someone stands.
For years, many have asked me how a passer rating is compiled. Well, it’s a convoluted process requiring an analytical mind, strong batteries in the calculator, and a lot of patience. If you’re ready to take a trip into this shadowy, haunted world, here we go (and try not to scream)!
1. First, it’s essential to know that the passer rating is compiled of four primary stats: percentage of completions, touchdown passes, interceptions per attempt, and average gain per attempt. The highest number a passer can achieve in these four categories — through the formula you will see in a few moments — is 2.375.
2. Subtract 30 from the completion percentage and multiply that number by .05. If you get a number less than zero, then the number for this section is zero. If the result is more than 2.375, that is the assigned number. The league likes to use Peyton Manning’s 2004 season as an example in these matters. Manning completed 67.6 percent of his passes that year. When the above formula is applied, the result is 1.880. (Keep that number handy, for it will be needed later.)
3. Subtract 3 yards from the average yards per pass and multiply that by .25. In 2004, Manning threw for 4,557 yards on 497 attempts. That’s 9.17 yards per attempt, which — when Step 3 is applied — turns into 1.543. (That number will again become more important in a few minutes.)
4. Multiply the touchdown percentage by 0.2. As in Step 2, if the result is greater than 2.375, then that is the number assigned. But that wasn’t the case with Manning, whose biggest year ever featured 49 touchdown passes out of 497 throws. The touchdown percentage was 9.86 percent, which turns into 1.972.
5. Multiply the interception percentage by 0.25 and subtract the resulting number from 2.375. If the result is less than zero, then zero is the resulting number for this step. Manning threw ten interceptions out of his 497 throws for a 2.01 percent reading. Applying Step 5, the result is 1.872.
6. Take the resulting numbers from Steps 2 through 5 and add them together. You will get 7.267.
7. Divide the Step 6 result by six and multiply that result by 100. You should have come up with Manning’s passer rating for 2004, a gaudy 121.1.
Don’t get me started!
We hope you’ve learned not to fear the passer rating. But if you’re still fearful of quarterbacks as good as Manning and Tom Brady, we can’t help you there. After all, it’s a scary time of year.
WHAT ABOUT ME, JOEY?
