After a lousy Week 1 (7-9), I have put together back-to-back 11-5 performances to raise my overall mark to 29-19 (60%), just a tad below the ten-win-per-week mark I’m shooting for. This week features a full 16-game card, with byes starting next week.
NOTE: All games are scheduled for Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Detroit 24, Green Bay 17 (Thursday night): With the league’s youngest roster, the Packers had to put on a phenomenal rally to beat back New Orleans at home last week, so it appears the Lambeau Field aura has temporarily disappeared. That’s not good news with the improving Lions in town, a team that sealed a playoff berth at Lambeau last year in the season’s final game.
Jacksonville 20, Atlanta 10 (Sunday morning, London): Longtime readers of this feature should have seen this pick coming; I almost always pick the Jaguars when they play in London. Why? The Jags are contractually obligated to play one home game in London each year, so they are more familiar with logistics and all the present travel challenges. The opponent, especially one like Atlanta, is irrelevant. That said, the Jags did allow a fullback to run a punt back for a score, as the Falcons did last week.
Baltimore 27, Cleveland 16: Not only do the Ravens get to play their three AFC North Division return games at home, but they get all three road games out of the way within the season’s first five weeks. The host Browns are heading for a bye next week, and they will find an opponent more willing to fight through adversity — that is, a lengthy injury list — than Tennessee was last week.
Cincinnati 23, Tennessee 9: Speaking of the Titans, a six-first-down, 94-yard offensive effort won’t get the job done against any team, even Cleveland. This will be Cincinnati’s first easy game of the year, even away from home on a short week. I see the Bengals building offensive momentum after starting the season with one of the highest three-and-out rates in the league.
Houston 29, Pittsburgh 24: There won’t be an Earl Campbell or Terry Bradshaw in this one, but two of the league’s most interesting young quarterbacks will battle at NRG Stadium. The Texans’ C.J. Stroud was my mock-draft first-overall pick, and he’s proven me right by showing he’s better than Bryce Young. Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett is in his second year and nowhere near as consistent. The Steeler defense keeps it close, but I’m playing a hunch and going with the Texans here.
Buffalo 33, Miami 30: This is the best game of Week 4. No one doubted the Dolphins would beat Denver, but no one saw a 70-plus point effort, the fourth-best in league history. This week, it’s Miami’s speed against Buffalo’s toughness. The Bills are at home, so I’ll take them … but I’m squarely on the fence on this one. The Dolphins are that good.
Indianapolis 20, Los Angeles Rams 17: This is one of the week’s most challenging pick ’em games. Who thought the Colts would win at Baltimore? I didn’t. The Rams are one of the best third-down teams, and they sport an array of stars, including Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford, and standout rookie receiver Puka Nacua, who has authored the best three-game career start for a receiver in NFL history. So, why am I picking the Colts? It’s the Rams’ shaky offensive line.
Philadelphia 31, Washington 15: The Commanders played more like the buck privates, and that rank should continue against an Eagles squad coming home on a short week after dispatching Tampa. Philadelphia still isn’t firing on all cylinders, but it leads the NFC East and should stay there for at least one more week.
Minnesota 17, Carolina 10: The Vikings are involved in a game against another frustrated squad. Last week, Minnesota couldn’t get it done at home against the Chargers, but I predict a win this week in Charlotte. One reason: Bryce Young has not lived up to his top billing.
Denver 24, Chicago 6: Never was this phrase more true: this is the “Game Of The Weak.” These winless squads have shown plenty of dysfunction both on and off the field. I’d generally take the home team in this situation, but I won’t. At least the Broncos have some semblance of an offensive game plan, but I also wonder if Denver has recovered psychologically from what happened in Miami. Playing the Bears will help in that regard, a club that has lost 13 straight going back to last year.
New Orleans 19, Tampa Bay 13: The Buccaneers, heading for a bye next week, showed their true colors in a blowout home loss to Philadelphia. Now, they go on the road on a short week to the always-noisy Superdome to deal with the Saints, which has been a surprisingly resilient team over the season’s first month.
Dallas 26, New England 17: Dallas is a different team without standout corner Trevon Diggs. But once the Cowboys adjust, the aggressiveness will return, and turnovers will come in bunches, particularly against a visiting Patriots squad devoid of offense.
San Francisco 27, Arizona 10: The Cardinals can hang their hat on an invigorating and complete effort last week against a Cowboys squad learning to play without its best corner. It was a refreshing change in the desert. But that was last week. This week will be different–a road game against one of the league’s best teams.
Los Angeles Chargers 30, Las Vegas 27: The host Chargers, heading for a bye next week, finally proved they could outlast a team offensively with a road win last week at Minnesota. But LA can’t run the ball, and it needs to do that to keep the sometimes-dangerous Raiders offense off the field. Las Vegas felt like the visiting team in their stadium last week, and that’s how the Chargers will feel this Sunday.
Week 4 ends with strains of “New York, New York.”
Kansas City 36, New York Jets 17 (Sunday night): The Chiefs have all their weapons back just in time to bully teams during a soft part of their schedule. As a result, they’ll play like themselves again, the best team in the NFL this year and since Tom Brady retired.
Seattle 39, New York Giants 13 (Monday night): This is the Giants’ only home game in five weeks, while Seattle is heading for a bye next week. The Seahawks have scored exactly 37 points in each of their last two games, something the Giants can only dream about. So, this one won’t be close — the Giants are one of two teams without a first-half touchdown (along with Cincinnati), and the MetLife Stadium Sunday-Monday prime-time doubleheader should be fodder for the Big Apple radio talk shows.
