Joey P’s NFL Picks: Week 2

One should never overreact to Week One results, good or not-so-good, and mine was a middling 7-9 start. Overreaction applies on the field, too. Several teams won’t be as good or bad as they looked in their openers. 

(All games are on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise indicated. A Monday night doubleheader is at the tail-end of Week 2.)

Philadelphia 23, Minnesota 20 (Thursday night) — Incredibly, the Vikings couldn’t win a home opener against a Tampa Bay team with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. What will they do against an Eagles team that’s good at home and in prime time? Philly’s defense, which faded in the second half at New England, does bear watching.

Baltimore 27, Cincinnati 24 — As I said in the intro paragraph, I don’t believe some teams will repeat what they did in Week One. Cincinnati is one of them. Sure, Joe Burrow looked rusty, but he’s got too much talent for that to last. But even with some injuries — and Mark Andrews and Marlon Humphrey could be back for Baltimore — the Ravens have the better, deeper roster and should again do enough to win. They will need Justin Tucker to put away this one.

Kansas City 38, Jacksonville 20 — The Chiefs finally got Chris Jones signed, and Travis Kelce should be healthy enough to play. Even without those two, they were only one point shy of Detroit in the opener, as a few dropped passes did them in. The Jags had trouble on the road putting away what should be a last-place team in Indianapolis.

Buffalo 20, Las Vegas 9 — The Raiders aren’t a winning team. I don’t care what they did in Denver. They are on the road again, this time in Buffalo, a team playing on a short week and coming off a tough overtime loss in New York, one in which they uncharacteristically blew a late lead.

Houston 26, Indianapolis 17 — The Texans were noticeably improved in their Week One loss at Baltimore. Will Anderson is a standout rookie pass rusher, and C.J. Stroud has a passel of good targets he will find if he gets time to throw. I picked Houston to finish second in the AFC South, and games like this are a reason why.

Los Angeles Chargers 37, Tennessee 13 — Through one game, the Chargers remind me of the Dan Fouts/Don Coryell version of the franchise in the late 70s: a team that can score with anyone yet loses to anyone. But Tennessee isn’t good enough to keep pace offensively with anyone. As usual, the Chargers should play better away from home, a place that feels like the road anyway.

Chicago 23, Tampa Bay 17. I think these teams will show differently this week. The Bears’ offense was putrid at home against their biggest archrival, but it should simplify and work itself out in this road game. The Buccaneers have never had an intimidating home field, and they don’t have the Bears’ talent, either.

Seattle 30, Detroit 27 — My NFC Super Bowl pick, the Seahawks, came out at home against a supposedly outclassed Rams team and laid a giant egg. Detroit went on the road, beat the defending Super Bowl champs, then got a mini-bye. I don’t feel the Lions will deal with prosperity well, and the Seahawks should eke out a tight one.

Green Bay 20, Atlanta 17 — Jordan Love did surprisingly well in his Week One debut, and the Packers didn’t look like the last-place team. I feel they should go 2-0 on the road against a Falcons team that I don’t think is as good as the team that beat Carolina. Still, I think Bijan Robinson has a good chance to be Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Dallas 34, New York Jets 16 — The Cowboys went into an emotional 9/11 environment and eviscerated the Giants. Aaron Rodgers’ ankle might keep him out of this game at Jerry World, but even if he plays, I don’t see him getting much done against the league’s youngest, fastest, deepest defense that has forced 70 turnovers in its last 35 games, which is an eye-popping rate.

New York Giants 22, Arizona 12 — The Giants were held to no gain or negative yardage on nearly half their snaps against Dallas. But the woebegone Cardinals had one of their few chances to get a win at Washington last week–and they let a winnable game get away. So, in their home opener, they will likely fold against a Giants team eager to show how good they are.

Denver 30, Washington 20 — One thing got lost in examining Denver’s home-opener loss to Las Vegas: the Broncos only had six possessions, hardly enough for any NFL team to prosper against any opponent. Denver is home again for this one against a Commanders team that lucked out getting the Cardinals at home in their lid-lifter. It should mean a win if Sean Payton can lay off the foolish onside kicks and call a regular game plan.

San Francisco 26, Los Angeles Rams 10 — I don’t believe the Rams are good enough to have a winning season, despite what they did in Seattle. This is the Rams’ home opener against a 49er bunch that went west-to-east and still dominated Pittsburgh. San Francisco is better.

Miami 31, New England 17 (Sunday night) — The Dolphins play their second straight on the road, but they’re lucky it’s September in Foxborough and not December. The Patriots showed heart in a last-ditch comeback against the Eagles last week but still fell short. The Dolphins should use their speed to rack up a big enough lead to hang on comfortably this time.

New Orleans 26, Carolina 23 (Monday night) — Bryce Young had a few ill-timed mistakes against the Falcons, and the same could happen here. But the fact is, Derek Carr is simply better and more experienced than Young, and that should rub off just enough on his teammates for the Saints to get another narrow win in football’s worst division.

Pittsburgh 17, Cleveland 13 (Monday night) — Here are two teams with perhaps the most deceptive Week One outcomes. The Steelers were surprisingly non-competitive, but they aren’t nearly as bad as they looked against the Niners, a Super Bowl contender. The Browns aren’t as good as they showed against the Bengals, a team that didn’t play starters in preseason games. Those are reasons I predict things revert to form with the host Steelers pulling out a close win.