Baylor underperformed last year. Can the Bears rebound in ’23? Here’s my take.
Head Coach Dave Aranda adjusted the approach taken a year ago by bringing in more players via the transfer portal. They include Ketron Jackson (WR from Arkansas), Campbell Barrington (OL from BYU), Clark Barrington (OL from BYU), Jake Roberts (TE from North Texas), Sawyer Robertson (QB from Mississippi State), RJ Martinez (QB from Northern Arizona University), Dominic Richardson (RB from Oklahoma State), Byron Vaughns (LB from Utah State), Treven Ma’ae (DL from Oregon), Justin Sambu (DL from Maine), Mike Smith (LB from Liberty), Isaiah Dunson (CB from Miami (FL)), Ajani Carter (CB from Utah State), and Jack Stone (Kicker from Michigan State).
Carter, slated to be one of the top four CBs, arrived in Waco a few weeks ago but has not practiced. That’s important to note because my biggest concern this season is the Bears’ secondary. It remains to be seen how unproven players will perform against explosive offenses.
The offensive scheme of choice in Waco is the Wide Zone, and there are more experienced skill players to run it this season. The deepest two rooms are at RB and TE, but (as we all know) the offense starts at QB. Hopefully, dual-threat QB Blake Shapen will improve from a year ago. Another issue is that Baylor lost all OL starters from a year ago. I trust that Eric Mateos (OL coach) will find the best combination possible.
After finishing 12-2 in 2021, Baylor went from 6-3 and a bowl game in sight in 2022 to finishing 6-7 with closing losses to K-State, TCU, Texas, and Air Force. I predict the Bears will improve to 7-5 or 8-4 in 2023 because of transfer additions and a favorable schedule. At best, I see this team finishing 9-3 or 10-2 if Baylor starts September strong. But doing that will be challenging. As of today, the ESPN MatchUp Predictor favors opponents in each of these September games–Utah has a 54% chance of winning, Texas (71%), and UCF (57%).
That said, I like the schedule for the most part, which includes the most home games in Baylor history (8), and seven of the first eight contests are at McClane Stadium. But I would have loved not to have back-to-back road games this season as the Bears must face toward the season’s end (at K-State and TCU). In addition, I would have swapped a visit to Kansas State with an Oklahoma State road game because K-State looks to be the stronger team.
Note that three of the four new Big 12 members are on the schedule–UCF and Cincinnati (away), and Houston (home)–with UCF looking to be the most formidable of the bunch. BYU is not on the 2023 schedule.
1. Texas State at home – September 2
2. Utah at home – September 9
3. Long Island at home – September 16
4. Texas at home – September 23
5. UCF on the road – September 30
6. Texas Tech at home – October 7
7. Bye week – October 14
8. Cincinnati on the road – October 21
9. Iowa State at home– October 28
10. Houston at home – November 4
11. Kansas State on the road- November 11
12. TCU on the road- November 18
13. WVU at home – November 25
