The Power 5 is no more, and don’t get comfortable with today’s settling place. The reason is straightforward and it’s about money. Shrink the number of power programs and those remaining get a bigger slice of the media pie.
I didn’t get it, not even at the start. My Facebook and Twitter feeds were full of fans gushing about how their teams and conferences were saved because they survived the seismic shift in the configuration of college football. That seemed shortsighted to me. I began combing through data to support my intuition and reading others’ assessments.
Those efforts reinforced my belief that what happened to the PAC-12 wasn’t likely a one-off. My conclusion: It’s part of a trend that will ultimately change the face of power college football as we known it.
It’s a stunner, too, and a sobering reminder of what motivates human behavior. Of all places, what happened to the PAC-12 shouldn’t have happened in higher education. Why? University presidents/ADs would be loyal to the league, honor tradition, and work together with the kind of college spirit we’ve witnessed in Hollywood films. You know what I mean: “It’s one for all and all for one!” Instead, the principals focused on self-interest, abandoned the league, and clothed their behavior with words of flowery indirection. “We” couldn’t triumph over “me.”
That outcome demonstrates major college sports’ undeniable–and now inextricable tie–to big-time commercial sports media and the big money involved. The media companies need eyeballs. Top-level competition delivers, the most prominent name brands do it best, and two conferences, among others, are delivering the goods.
–The SEC got Oklahoma and Texas, which are at the top of the major college food chain. √√ With those additions, the conference expanded into the southwest. It now owns the southeast and southwest, arguably America’s top market for college football.
–With USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, the Big 10 also got schools in the top echelon of major college football. √ √ √ √ Moreover, the conference now spans from coast to coast, grabbing media markets up and down the Pacific coast–from Seattle to Mexico, save for San Franciso and San Diego.
What about the other two power leagues? It’s a different storyline.
–The Big 12 lost its biggest football brands when Oklahoma and Texas bolted for the SEC, and none of the eight new schools in this 16-team league (save one) comes close to what the SEC and Big 10 added. UCF is solid and promising but yet unproven in power-level football (e.g., about a 25% win rate vs. Power 5 programs). Houston doesn’t draw well at home, is situated in the saturated Texas football market, and was rejected by the Big 12 twice before. Cincinnati has had success recently but couldn’t find a Power 5 home after the Big East ended a decade ago. BYU has never been in a Power 5 conference and, until recently, was in a Group of Five conference (Mountain West). Of the most recent additions (all PAC-12 defections)–Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado–only Utah (the two-time defending PAC-12 champion) has a nationally competitive football program.
–The ACC is crickets except for making two headlines–FSU and Clemson wanting out and the conference’s knee-jerk effort to claim Cal and Stanford. If Florida State and Clemson leave the ACC, and especially if Miami joins them, there’s a good chance the ACC will cease to exist, but I don’t see the SEC pushing for those programs. (The SEC doesn’t solicit. It gets solicited.) But if the cookie crumbles, that’s where those teams will likely end up. The rest will scatter to the Big 10, especially top-tier academic schools adjacent to Maryland, like UNC and UVA. It’s a good bet that several ACC teams will end up in the Big 12 (e.g., Virginia Tech, NC State). Non-marquee programs will likely affiliate with Group of Five conferences (e.g., American Conference).
What’s the bottom line as I see it? A pattern is emerging, and it’s a separation pattern–the SEC and Big 10 are separating themselves from the ACC and Big 12. Numbers tell the tale.
First, academic prestige matters, and the Big 10 and SEC have a corner on both.
—Thirteen of America’s Top 25 public academic universities (52%) are situated in the Big 10 and SEC, while the ACC and Big 12 have six combined (24%), with none in the Big 12. I’ve found that many fans underestimate the impact of academic excellence on athletic success. It’s much tighter and stronger than many folks think (e.g., high-profile alums as athletic boosters).
Second, there is the matter of athletic money available to major college programs. Money-wise, 21 of the Top 25 sports revenue-generators (84%) are in the Big 10 and SEC, while ACC and Big 12 have four combined (16%), with none affiliated with the Big 12. The statistic is eye-popping to me: over 4 of 5 schools at the top of the money list are members of only two conferences.
Third, recruiting success and field success are highly related. That assertion is based on the results of a recent study authored by Mankin, et al. entitled, Why Football Recruiting Rankings Matter. Over a 17-year period, the researchers found that about 40% of successful game outcomes among major college teams were recruiting-linked. Specifically, high recruiting ratings using 247 composite recruiting ratings accounted for about 40% of success as measured by the Sagarin Ratings. Sagarin uses a weighted composite based on schedule strength (wins against tougher opponents count more, while wins against lesser opponents count less). He does not use the number of wins or winning percentages to measure field success, thereby removing the oft-referenced “cupcake effect.”
Again, the Big 10 and SEC have a considerable edge over the Big 12 and ACC.
—17 of the Top 25-rated programs in major college football recruiting 2024 are situated in the Big 10 and SEC (64%). Seven are affiliated with the ACC and Big 12 (28%); one of those seven is Notre Dame, an independent, quasi-affiliated with the ACC. Only one Big 12 school (UCF) is in the Top 25.
I find the numbers compelling and suggestive of what might come next. What is that? It’s further consolidation that could begin with another power domino falling. The ACC is the prime candidate.
That said, there is a caveat–basketball. The ACC and Big 12 hold sway in the hoops battle, with the Big Ten and SEC far behind. Despite the fanfare, the Big Ten hasn’t won an NCAA championship in nearly a quarter-century (Michigan State, 2000), and SEC has captured only one crown in the past decade (UK, 2012). In contrast, the ACC has cut down the nets 5x more than the Big 10 and SEC combined since 2000, and so has the basketball-focused Big East. The Big 12 has won two of the last three national championships (Kansas and Baylor), and according to Ken Pomeroy’s formula, the Big 12 has been the top regular-season conference in eight of the last ten seasons. Adding Houston and Arizona to the conference will bolster the conference’s strength, and further expanding the basketball advantage is the primary reason why the Big 12 worked diligently (but failed) to get Gonzaga and UConn to the conference fold.
But football is in the driver’s seat, and the challenge to all other programs is clear. Schools outside the Big Two must keep pushing the pedal to the metal to keep pace. Can they do it? Will they want to do it? Those are huge questions.
Do I like what I’ve just described? Hell, no. I believe it is a subversion, if not corruption, of what intercollegiate football is supposed to be about, including what made me fall in love with the sport as a youth. But it is what major college football is today. Give me the name of one sitting athletic director, university president/chancellor, or trustee who is calling foul, demanding change, and doing something about it.
Instead, they are in a league of their own, making what I’ve just written a reality. The problem is this: they aren’t in control of their destiny. The sports media industry is. The tail wags the dog.
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NOTE: The graphics in this column were first presented on Wolfman’s Call with Host Dale Wolfley (Monday, August 7, first chart, and Monday, August 14, second chart). Those programs are archived on YouTube at the West Virginia Football at the Voice of College Football and on Facebook. My August 6 analysis of major conference football and why it has evolved as it has can be read here.
