Many rely solely on a pitcher’s Earned Run Average (ERA) to judge a starting pitcher’s effectiveness. That can be a mistake because ERA does not accurately portray a pitcher’s performance. A more reliable measure of a pitcher’s effectiveness is his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). Here’s why.
FIP estimates what a pitcher’s ERA should have been based on his results in three key areas: strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. It enables us to accurately assess a pitcher’s performance by excluding any external factors from the analysis, such as weather conditions, wind speed, altitude, park size, and any other environmental influences beyond their control.
Look for pitchers with a FIP with at least one run lower than his ERA, as that indicates that they have had bad luck and could be undervalued going forward.
Although ERA can be a helpful statistic, it does not always accurately depict an individual player’s skill level. It should be considered along with other indicators such as batting average against, WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched), hard-hit rate, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and number of pitches in the last start.
Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene (photo courtesy Cincinnati Enquirer)
As the season progresses and temperatures become increasingly warm, it is essential to watch for starting pitchers who have recently completed 110+ pitch performances and have the normal four days of rest before their next outing. For example, Pitcher X was given the start on Monday and then again on Saturday.
The system won’t work if Pitcher X starts on Sunday with an extra day of rest because his potential success or lack thereof on Saturday depends on the rest they receive leading up to the start. If they have additional rest, such as an extra day before taking the mound, this system may not be effective in predicting their performance.
Utilizing data and analytics can help determine if Pitcher X should receive an extra day of rest to succeed. Most teams will give Pitcher X an extra day to recover after throwing 110+ pitches, but it’s a no-play when that happens. By carefully analyzing the physical condition of pitchers and utilizing this information to make educated bets against those with ailing arms, we can gain an edge at the betting window that can potentially lead to sustained success over a more extended period of time. The strategy requires careful consideration and research as it looks for pitchers with visible injuries and those simply fatigued from too many innings (pitches), which can be harder to spot, yet still provide an opportunity for savvy bettors.
These days, the opportunity to profit by betting on “tired” pitchers is not as frequent as it used to be. However, sports betting enthusiasts can take advantage of their edge and make significant profits when it does happen. Odds-makers know what they’re doing, so making informed decisions is important when betting. Research and analyze the probability of winning before making any bets to ensure your decisions are well thought out and maximize your chances of success.
Twitter: @JHSPORTSLINE
